WASHINGTON, March 27: A retired US Air Force colonel and well-known war gaming expert said on Monday the United States was under increasing pressure to use military force to destroy Iran’s atomic sites and would make a decision on this option soon.
Mr Gardiner said a US operation aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities would take less than a week and would not use any of the forces currently stationed in Iraq.
“This is an operation that would not take more than five evenings to do,” he said, adding that it would probably use Stealth bombers to bomb the facilities.
Iran has completed a 164-machine ‘cascade’ of centrifuges to enrich uranium at its Natanz plant and is expected to begin testing it soon, diplomats in Vienna say. Operating such a cascade would not enable it to fuel any atomic weapons but would enable Iran to master the difficult art of uranium enrichment.
“I think we may be looking at a (US) decision in six to nine months,” said Sam Gardiner, a military strategy expert who has taught at the US Army’s National War College.
“I say before the November elections there will be a serious decision made in the United States,” he said.
Mr Gardiner said that while Washington supported European and Russian efforts to use diplomacy to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear enrichment programme, US officials were sceptical about the efficacy of sanctions or other diplomatic weapons.
Washington also believes the United Nations Security Council will fail to agree on a course of action against Tehran, he said.
Mr Gardiner said a US operation aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities would take less than a week and would not use any of the forces currently stationed in Iraq.
“This is an operation that would not take more than five evenings to do,” he said, adding that it would probably use Stealth bombers to bomb the facilities.
But Mr Gardiner said all his war-gaming and analysis had led him to the conclusion that Ambassador Soltaniyeh was right and the military solution would not destroy Iran’s nuclear programme as the knowhow would remain.
“I don’t think US policymakers understand that the military option won’t work,” he said, adding that continued diplomacy was the only way to resolve the issue. —Reuters
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