ISLAMABAD, May 7: The Meteorological department has warned of a possible drought in the country with no signs of any significant rainfall over the next two months and water levels in Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs dropping to critical points.

The drought, feared to hit Sindh and Balochistan first, will have a bad impact on efforts to achieve this year’s cotton sowing target and affect livestock, horticulture and human lives throughout the country.

Prospects of meeting the target of rice cultivation, which will start by the end of June, also seem dim, say officials in the Met department and agriculture ministry.

“Moderate drought conditions have already developed in Balochistan which are likely to worsen in the coming months with the possibility of spreading to other parts of the country,” Met Department director-general Dr Qamaruzzaman told Dawn.

He said the water situation in the two main dams – Mangla and Tarbela – was critical, adding that levels in small dams, including Rawal (Islamabad) and Khanpur (NWFP), had already receded to a critical point.

He pointed out that the country last year received 40 per cent less rain than average. Snowfall in catchment areas was also 20-25 per cent below normal.

However, a less than normal seasonal snowfall in catchment areas of Tarbela dam will cause temperatures to rise which will subsequently melt glaciers. The process is expected to start in the coming days and can improve to some extent the water situation in the dam.

But, there are no chances of improvement in the water level in the Mangla dam before monsoon as most of the seasonal snow in its catchment areas has already melted.

“This indicates the likelihood of a severe water stress in the country during the next few months,” Mr Qamaruzzaman observed.

The Met office during a meeting of the Federal Agriculture Committee on April 4 warned the federal ministry of food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) about the looming water crisis. And in the second week of April, it informed the federal water authorities and the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) about the situation.

Sources in Minfal said the Met office had warned that the drought could affect at least one million people in Sindh and Balochistan by the end of June. Parts of the two provinces have already been facing a drought-like situation owing to a dry spell continuing since last year.

Balochistan received less rains in January and February that further aggravated the situation and at present the districts of Chagai, Kharan, Panjgur, Kech and Gwadar are in the grip of a moderate drought, the sources said.

Minfal’s agriculture development commissioner Dr Qadar Bakhsh Baloch said efforts were being made to achieve the three million hectare target of cotton sowing. However, he added, the target now appeared to be a big challenge.

“Now, the provincial irrigation departments and Irsa will have to do their best to achieve the sowing targets for cotton, sugarcane and rice in these conditions,” he observed.

Answering a question, Mr Baloch said 80 per cent of cotton was sown in Punjab, which produced 11 million bales in the last season. Sindh produced 2.5 million bales, NWFP 1 million and Balochistan 80,000-90,000 bales. “The real challenge for the government is, therefore, to achieve the sowing target in Punjab, where sowing is in process.”

He said drought would not affect cotton sowing in Balochistan as it had the tubewell irrigation system with little dependence on river water or rains. However, he added, the drought could hurt government efforts to mitigate effects of the last drought on the livestock sector in the province.

According to United Nations, the 1998-2001 drought affected 2.21 million people in Sindh and Balochistan.