Friday feature: The vision of the Prophet

To know the future has been the greatest urge of mankind, and its inability to peer into the future, perhaps, one of its biggest regrets.

In Biblical times, a prophet was supposed to foretell the future and warn his people of the impending calamity. The Hebrew word for Prophet is ‘nabi’, meaning a seer and warner. Even in ancient Arabia, before the advent of Islam, it were the ‘Kaahins’, who professed to have access to the unknown future and who had set up their own places of worship, held sway over the minds of the people.

But no one except those who were ‘inspired’ by Allah, in other words, the Prophets, whose sources of information, observation and experience are not restricted to the five senses could actually see the future like an eye witness. The Prophets of God have recourse to the spiritual, or angelic, medium. Only the pious and saintly persons, called Auliaullah (literally, ‘Lovers of God’) are supposed to partially share this facility with the Divinely-inspired Prophets. Not the ordinary folk.

Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) is reported to have narrated to his pious companions on various occasions the shape of things to come, as he visualised them as the Final Prophet. Every one will concede that the Prophet of Islam has an extraordinary place in the history of making, having been ranked as the topmost person out of “the hundred” considered by Hart, a non-Muslim. His prophecies as narrated to his companions, on various occasions, some on the basis of direct revelation from the Almighty and some on indirect indications received from above, have an aura of absolute truth for Muslims, if not for others, and have to be taken note of.

It will be enlightening for the readers if some of the Prophetic prophecies, which have political, or historical, significance, are described briefly:

The Prophet had given glad tidings to his small band of followers in Madina, while trenches were being dug on the peripheries of the city to obstruct the Makkan horsemen who were about to ride into the city with weapons of war. It was on this occasion, when their existence was even at stake, he pronounced loudly that he had received clear indications that these very Muslims would, shortly, become a force to reckon with and that, in the near future, the Roman and the Persian empires, the two superpowers of the day, would be run over by them and Egypt would also be conquered and annexed by them and later, they will have to even face the Mongols who will be distinct because of their “oblique, narrow eyes and broad faces”.

How the Arabs rose from strength to strength and conquered the whole of the Middle East and North Africa by liquidating the Roman and Persian empires and peacefully penetrating in Asia Minor is history.

This prophecy about liquidation of the two superpowers of the 7th century A.D. materialised when Syria and Iraq were conquered during Hazrat Umar’s rule and, as foretold, that “Arabs of Madina will migrate there en masse” (Muslim’s compilation of Traditions), these two countries are now inhabited, almost entirely, by Arabs.

Similarly, as recorded by Muslim, on the authority of Hazrat Abu Zar Ghifari, that the Holy Prophet had told him that Egypt will be conquered by Muslims during his (Ghifari’s) life time, who not only lived to see this event to happen but also had the opportunity of visiting Egypt. Similarly, the books of Traditions refer to the Holy Prophet having predicted the conquest of Khuzistan, Kirman, Jerusalem and Constantinople all of which came true.

The Holy Prophet had hinted, without specifying the period, (Muslim: Bab-e-Fitan) that there would be “bloody battles” in Syria between Christians and Muslims. This has already happened if it is taken to mean the earth-shaking Crusades which began in 1099 A.D. and ended with the re-conquest of Jerusalem by Saladin (Salahuddin Ayubi) in 1244 A.D.

While the Crusades ended in early 13th century, the hordes of Mongolian Tartars appeared on the scene as a pestilence. This important historical event too was foretold by the Prophet, having been reported in various ways by various narrators of Traditions. The concise version in Bukhari’s Babe-Alaamat can be rendered in English thus: “The world will not approach its end until Muslims fight non-Arab (Ajami) Turks (meaning Tartars) whose faces would be reddish and flat with snub noses, and small eyes, and whose garments would be of hairy hides, and such would be their socks and footwear”.

Although the Prophet had not seen these Mongols in his life time, as they emerged from their seclusion in 13th century, or six centuries after the Prophet’s death, their description is like an eye-witness account. They plundered the flowers of Muslim civilisation at Samarkand and Bukhara, and, led by Halaku, sacked Baghdad in 1258 A.D.

Two prophecies which relate to the current period of history are of grave implications. They are as under:-

There will be “a memorable and decisive war in Syria between Muslims and Jews”. This particular prediction appeared to be strange in the Prophet’s time, and even centuries later, as there was no Jewish state and no Jewish army till the infamous Balfour Declaration granted the land of the Arabs to the Jewish diaspora which led to the creation of what is now Israel, located in a small part of what was known as Syria in the Prophet’s time.

When, numerically, Muslims will be counted as a big nation (as opposed to their small population during the Prophet’s time), other nations of the world “would coalesce and join each other just as hungry persons rush and jostle with each other when they see a basketful of eatables”. Such a grand coalition will attack Muslims. Who at that time, despite their sizable numbers will have neither pride nor prestige left because of their hankering after worldly gains. The above two predictions have been quoted by Syed Sulaiman Nadvi in Seeratun Nabi Vol, 3 and are based on reliable traditions.

A clash of cultures

A RATIONAL society should resist populist calls for a retreat from science — even when they come from the heir to the throne. But even before Prince Charles delivered his familiar call for a more holistic approach to complementary medicine on Tuesday, a group of 13 eminent clinical scientists sought to pre-empt him.

A letter sent by the group to the chief executives of all 476 acute and primary care trusts urged them to restrict the NHS’s use of complementary and alternative medicine to scientifically-proven treatment. It was already running in the media before the prince began his address to foreign health ministers at the World Health Assembly in Geneva.

About half of GPs in Britain already provide access to some form of alternative or complementary therapies. At least one in five people add a further 130 million pounds of treatment which they pay for themselves. The medical scientists’ letter did not mince its words. It described homeopathy as an “implausible treatment for which over a dozen systematic reviews have failed to produce convincing evidence of effectiveness”.

It went on to add that while medical practice “must remain open to new discoveries”, it would be “highly irresponsible to embrace any medicine as though it were a matter of principle.” Michael Baum, emeritus professor of surgery at University College, London, the initiator of the move, told the BBC Radio Today programme: “I’m all in favour of treatments that make people better but there is the issue of evidence. My concern is the issue of opportunity cost. If the NHS is spending money on placebos at the cost of not providing effective medicines, then it does matter.”

So far, so fair, many will believe. A Swiss-UK review of 110 trials found no convincing evidence that homeopathy treatment worked any better than a placebo. One of the world’s leading medical journals, the Lancet, last year described homeopathy as no better than dummy drugs.

In 2000, a distinguished group of medics on the Lords select committee on science and technology concluded that “any therapy that makes specific claims for being able to treat specific conditions should have the evidence of being able to do this above and beyond the placebo effect”. And yet this committee did include homeopathy - along with acupuncture, chiropractic, herbal medicine and osteopathy - in a “big five” category which it believed ought to qualify for inclusion in NHS treatments.

Sensibly the health department leaves it to trusts and clinicians to decide whether complementary and alternative medicine is appropriate. It has provided three million pounds to boost research on the effectiveness of CAM. The defenders of these therapies do have studies which show some are effective.

Acupuncture can reduce post-operative pain, herbal medicines relieve depression, and manipulation therapies alleviate lower back pain. Ideally, the National Institute for Clinical Excellence should be asked to conduct clinical and cost effective studies into other therapies, but its budget has been cut and it is already behind schedule in its research on proposed new mainstream treatments.

To be fair to Prince Charles, who has advocated greater use of complementary medicines for more than 20 years, Tuesday’s call for more integration was restricted to “proven” therapies. Where the 13 medical scientists went wrong was in their tone. The NHS is supposed to be seeking to become patient-centred, under which there is “shared decision-taking”.

Medicine aims to become a team effort. And scientists are in urgent need of more public support. All this will only be achieved, as Harry Cayton, the patient tsar has noted, if medical scientists change their approach and “begin to talk with us, rather than at us”. Yesterday’s declaration had the smack of yesterday’s medical men failing to see the difference between wellbeing and clinical outcomes.

—The Guardian, London

Economy in the doldrums

IN SPITE of all the tall claims made by our policymakers in Islamabad about Pakistan’s economic performance, the fact remains that little has changed in the cumbersome bureaucratic system and decision-making process. Both continue to stifle real growth in the country.

Poor vision and the absence of long-term economic policies completed with the growing hold of the bureaucracy over policymaking have blocked the country’s economic potential.

After more than six years of unchallenged power, the Musharraf government has failed to evolve any industrial, agricultural or investment policy. As government spending in non-productive areas reaches alarming levels, ad hocism still characterises our approach to economic issues. Critical issues of unemployment, inflation, tax policy, lagging agricultural production and interest rates remain unaddressed. Committees, commissions and reports abound on virtually every aspect of the economy but the lack of political will to implement their recommendation remains the biggest obstacle

Dark clouds loom on the horizon in the form of a massive trade deficit, current account deficit and rising inflation and interest rates. The government’s initial and much proclaimed success in shoring up foreign exchange reserves was based on the printing of money, buying dollars in the open market from this money and the post 9/11 increase in home remittances.

This was in no way indicative of higher economic growth. Foreign exchange reserves have remained virtually frozen in the last two years and only the recent proceeds from privatisation have made a sight difference. From the equivalent of 10-month import bill our reserves now stand at an equivalent of a six-month import bill. This is a dangerous level and any shock, external or internal, could send the rupee into a free fall.

The massive current account deficit has reached alarming levels forcing the government to intensify its privatisation campaign and raising funds abroad through the issuance of bonds. The massive trade deficit of almost $9 billion has become almost unmanageable. The finance wizards in Islamabad are desperately trying to meet this gap. The $ 4 billion received through home remittances plus the approximate $2 billion due from international loan agencies and bilateral credits are expected to be used to reduce this shortfall.

But the government will still need $2 billion to $3 billion to balance the books. To meet this obligation the government will have no choice left but to use the foreign exchange reserves, thus depleting them further. This leaves the question of foreign debt repayment of approximately $1.5 billion.

The government may very well be forced to use the money due from earthquake commitments plus any additional proceeds from the privatisation for this purpose, seriously jeopardising our ability to pay for another $7 billion to $8 billion deficit expected in the financial year 2006-2007. The picture is worrisome and could lead to the rupee falling to the level of Rs75 against the dollar next year.

Indicators point a slowdown in economic growth. With investment in the new industry extremely dismal and petroleum prices showing no signs of coming down, the government’s plans to strengthen the economy are in a shambles. Whatever happened to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz’ promise to announce a new industrial policy and to provide technical training to 800,000 young men and women? Successive investment conferences held abroad have failed to bring in a meaningful level of foreign investment and the government has taken refuge of the privatisation proceeds to inflate figures for foreign direct investment, wanting to locate a favourable impression of Pakistan attract investment from abroad.

The government has also failed to improve the investment climate not only for international investors but also for domestic ones. The taxes remain very high and with zero tax rate in the Gulf region Pakistan’s attraction remains very poor to the foreign investors. Industrial land prices are also sky high, especially in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad.

Compared to this, China and Turkey are offering free land to foreign investors. Obviously, these and other countries stand to benefit. Take the example of Saudi Prince Walid bin Tallal. Within days of being awarded with a civilian award by President Musharraf for his commitment to Pakistan, he announced the opening of a major investment office of his group in New Delhi and plans for investing in major projects in India.

The government has also failed miserably to revive most of the industrial estates established during the last three decades. In the Karachi area, the Export Processing Zone, Port Qasim and Nooriabad have all failed to grow or prosper. Most of the allocated land lies flat and barren. Yet, the almost defunct Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation has launched a new land-owning subsidiary to promote new industrial estates offering hardly any incentives to new investors.

The growth patterns of the economy are now dependent mostly on the phenomenal, but unhealthy, growth of the financial sector. The massive fluctuations in the interest rates during the last two years have started showing their adverse effect as the inflation has reached worrisome levels. The government seems to have no strategy to cope with this situation.

Consumer financing at exorbitant rates has had a dangerously ballooning effect on the economy. The middle class debt is growing rapidly on the basis of high interest credit cards and defaults are increasing. The customer deposits in the banking system are actually earning negative interest as the rates remain below that of inflation.

Agriculture is an area where the government has lagged behind seriously in pursuing an aggressive course of action. It has failed to evolve an effective strategy to increase agricultural output and make it a strong pillar of our economic strength.

The great potential unleashed in East Punjab is an example which we wanted to follow but have lacked the foresight and political will to implement.

As poverty remains widespread in rural areas, the fruit of the so called trickle down effect is nowhere to be seen especially in Sindh, Balochistan and the NWFP. Feudalism continues to dominate the rural culture keeping it at a safe distance from the benefits of modernisation.

The Musharraf government has also failed to address the problem of poverty. The common man’s plight is definitely not on the agenda of the government. The decision makers are not even aware of the seriousness or nature of the problems being faced by the poor. The income of the working classes has eroded substantially in the last few years.

Transportation costs, medicine, school fees, textbooks and essentials like food have become very expensive and have reduced the purchasing power of the common man by almost fifty per cent in the last six years. Wages have remained stagnant and the government seems to have turned its eyes away from the issue.

To top it all, the government’s VIP culture has continued to flourish. Countless perks including massive security are being provided to the VIPs at exorbitant cost to the exchequer. As the gap between the rich and poor continues to grow, so do concerns about the nation’s future. The time is now ripe for a national debate on setting national priorities.