GORIMAR (Afghanistan): On a windy day, which is every day, the grand Industrial Village for Carpet Weaver Returnees disappears into a storm of stinging dust whipping across this barren plain in northern Afghanistan.

It is a desolate place. Children are dying of heat and disease. There is no water, no power, no toilets, no solid shelter. And there is precious little weaving going on.

“It’s like hell,” said 48-year-old Salima, crouching near her loom, wearing a blue burqa as the wind whips at the tent.

“We have nothing. We face a lot of problems here.”

Three hundred ethnic Turkmen families — about 1,500 people — are camped under tarpaulins in the shadow of the Marmal mountains 35 km from the major northern centre of Mazar-i-Sharif, near the border with Uzbekistan.

After watching news of Afghanistan’s progress following the ouster of the hardline Taliban regime in 2001, they came home from Pakistan three months ago.

But their village of Hairatan on the Amu River further north was destroyed by the annual floods in the years they were gone.

“Nobody is paying attention to us,” complained 70-year-old Mahmud Amin, the white-bearded village headman and former mayor of Hairatan.

“We don’t have any money. The government gave us this, but it doesn’t have wells, it doesn’t have anything,” he said. “Since we have been here, we have done nothing. We can’t weave carpets here. We have nothing here. Why should we not go back?”

At times, the winds across the plains are so fierce they knock young children over.

The villagers have dug “dust bunkers” — holes in the ground covered with blue plastic sheeting for the women and children to hide in when the weather gets dangerous.

They say at least 12 children under the age of 5 have died of heat and disease since they came back from Pakistan.

More than 4.6 million refugees have come home since the fall of the Taliban, about two thirds from Pakistan and most of the rest from Iran, drawn by stories that life is getting better.

But for many it is not.

Afghanistan is still pitifully poor, with no economy, no development and a jobless rate of 40 per cent, according to the CIA World Factbook. This compares with the United Nations’ estimate of 30 per cent unemployment in nearby Iraq.

After years establishing themselves and building lives in their adopted, if temporary homes, returnees find it hard to start again with almost nothing.

In Pakistan, the Turkmen carpet weavers would buy their materials on advances from Pakistani carpet traders.

“The carpet shops here — they don’t trust us,” said Amin. Barely half a dozen families can still afford to buy materials to keep working, making rough rugs already aged and discouloured by sand and dirt on the loom before they are even finished.

A small rug takes about 25 days to weave, costs 600 Afghanis ($12) to make and sells in the Mazar bazaar for 1,200 Afghanis.

The families who can’t afford to make carpets send their young men into the city to look for day jobs for $2 a day as labourers on construction sites or hauling goods. They spend half that getting into Mazar and back by bus or car.

The provincial government drew up an ambitious plan for a carpet weavers city, with solid homes, looms and a carpet bazaar, covering 500 acres. It would also include schools, water, power and clinics.

But all it has been able to do so far has been to sell tent plots at $120 a piece and erect an entrance “arch” of green cloth and timber poles, with one portrait of President Hamid Karzai and two of mujahideen resistance hero Ahmed Shah Masood.

“We have no resources,” explained Khair Mohammad, deputy head of the local returnees and refugees department, during a visit.

“This is natural when people come back. They have many problems. It can’t be done overnight. The government didn’t make them come here.

“We’re drawing the attention of foreign offices and NGOs to their plight. But we haven’t been given any help yet,” he said.

The returnees say they have been given plenty of promises, but nothing else. The sheets they use as tents bear the stamp of the United Nations refugee agency, but were bought at the market.

“They always promise ‘tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow’. They always have an excuse,” said Abdul Nazar Abdurahman, 20, one of the young men who makes the daily trek into Mazar looking for work, venting his general frustration.—Reuters

JOHANNESBURG: Uncertainty over who will succeed South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki is starting to worry investors, and may become a bigger blip on their radar if his charismatic former deputy is acquitted of graft.

Financial markets have yet to price in the possibility that Jacob Zuma — who has broad support from left-leaning factions in the ruling African National Congress — will be able to fill the country’s looming leadership vacuum, analysts say.

“The concern is definitely there. It’s a question of stability in the ruling party and that is potentially troublesome ... simply because South Africa is a new democracy,” said Iraj Abedian, chief executive of Pan African Investments and Research Services.

Despite the growing jitters, most analysts are optimistic that regardless of who takes power in elections set for 2009, the prudent economic policies established since apartheid ended in 1994 will remain in place.

“From a market point of view there is no policy risk — it’s not as if Zuma stands for nationalisation or anything radical,” said Abedian, one of the architects of post-apartheid economic policy.

Zuma, 64, was sacked by President Thabo Mbeki last year after he was accused of having a corrupt relationship with his former aide Schabir Shaik and of accepting a bribe from French arms company Thint. Shaik has been convicted of corruption.

Zuma was also charged with raping a female family friend who was HIV positive, but he was acquitted at that trial in May.

Preliminary hearings over the graft charges began on Tuesday. The Zulu politician faces a decade or more in prison if found guilty, while an aquittal could return him to his former status as frontrunner to succeed Mbeki.

Mbeki has made clear he does not want Zuma to succeed him, by saying he would like a woman to be the next president. But he has not designated a clear successor, fanning debate over who will become the third president of Africa’s biggest economy.

“People are very worried about Jacob Zuma because apart from anything else he has undoubtedly shown poor judgment in being associated with an advisor who was found guilty,” independent business analyst Reg Rumney said.

“The point is we don’t really know what he stands for — he is a bit of an enigma. Judging from his support base he seems to be more left-wing but we really don’t know.”

The Sunday Times newspaper reported last week that a survey found Zuma had the support of more than 70 per cent of members from the powerful trade union federation COSATU, which views Mbeki and other ANC leaders as too pro-business.

US ratings agency Moody’s highlighted the succession uncertainty in its annual report on South Africa last week, but said it believed the country’s economic policy framework was well-embedded in its civil service and power base.

A lesser-known agency, Global Credit Ratings, said in June it was attaching a “watch” status on its A-sovereign rating for the country because of uncertainty over Mbeki’s successor.

South Africa’s financial markets have not reacted to the concerns, partly because much of the political battle takes place behind closed doors — ANC candidates do not openly contest public office.

But when Mbeki underwent medical tests at a hospital last week, there were murmurs of concern among foreign exchange traders, normally the quickest to react to any political uncertainty. Mbeki had cardiac tests, but was pronounced to be in good health.

Overseas economists dismissed the talk, saying economic fundamentals were still solid and political risk in South Africa was seen as minimal compared to other high-profile emerging markets, like Russia and Turkey.

“I don’t think many people are paying much attention to the succession issue — the election is two years away, and you won’t make any money betting on that now,” said Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Lucy Bethell in London.

“Over the next 3-6 months what happens to South Africa’s trade balance and interest rates is more important to markets.”

South Africa’s interest rates are rising and the country’s trade balance widened to a record $1.08 billion in July.

But overall the economy has clocked up a very strong performance in the past decade, with annual growth reaching a 22-year peak of 4.9 per cent last year and inflation staying inside its 3-6 per cent target for nearly three years.

“It’s possible that a Zuma acquittal would induce some market volatility but it’s difficult to say how much, and when there is money to be made political issues get completely overriden,” said George Glynos, analyst at ETM research firm.

“Yields on our benchmark bonds are 400 basis points above US Treasuries ... if interest rates rise further, any political risk would be overlooked: it’s an attractive spread,” he added.—Reuters