RIYADH, Oct 14: Contradictory signals from major Opec players, which some accuse is deliberate, are making global crude markets confused - tumbling still further in the process and stabilising around $60 mark for the first time in many months. And as markets tumbled, with the US mid-term election just round the corner, proponents of conspiracy theories seemed at overwork. The lack of firm Saudi position, a close Bush ally, reinforced the conspiracy theorists. Markets are susceptible to politics, pundits consent, and oil markets are no exception. Rather some, and indeed with logic, reason and recent history underlining, assert the oil markets are even more susceptible to politics than other commodities. One cannot dare deny at this stage!

Gasoline prices in the US are down some 70 cents a gallon from its peak in August – just a month prior to the November US Congressional elections and the timing crucial, generating speculative reviews all around –a huge fodder for talk shows.

According to a Gallup Poll conducted late September, 42 per cent of respondents — and almost two-third of them registered Democrats — agreed with the statement that the Bush administration "deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall’s elections." Indeed they have fallen! However, 53 per cent of those surveyed did not believe in the conspiracy theory, while five per cent said they had no opinion. Interesting indeed!

In the meantime, the rapid downward price slide generated a frenzy of activity within the energy corridors of the world. The real reason of concern to the crude suppliers, many argue, was the current high level of global fuel stocks, and not primarily the softening global crude market prices.

US data showed crude inventory at 328.1 million barrels on September 29, 13 per cent above the five year average for the period. Distillates, including diesel and heating oil, were also reported late September at 151.5 million barrels, 19 per cent above the five year average.

Already in September, the call on Opec crude was less than previous months. Against an official output ceiling of 28 million bpd, Opec pumped 29.47 million bpd in September a Reuters survey pointed out underlining the cartel’s overall oil output fell by 380,000 bpd in September – the lowest since April this year.

And with markets tumbling rapidly, literal mid-night lamps could be seen burning in the energy corridors of Riyadh and other Opec capitals – in the fasting month of Ramazan, when many people in the region tend to stay awake late, even otherwise.

That the Opec was taking time to respond was apparent to most of the analysts. Some attributed it to lack of preparation within the cartel in the face of this eventuality. Opec was in for some criticism!

First reports of a possible reduction move poured in from Nigeria and Venezuela. Then Kuwait became the first among the Gulf producers to join, and the announcement was made despite Kuwait having close relations with the US at the political level.

Iran and Libya, generally regarded as hawks within the cartel, also consented to the cuts. The UAE was also mentioned as ready to join. Opec President Edmund Daukoru also confirmed the reduction could be a million bpd. Chatter was all around.