CEBU (Philippines): Asean leaders agreed at their summit to a first-ever charter, seen as crucial for shoring up the bloc’s credibility, but analysts question whether the plan is too ambitious to become a reality.
The charter, in principle to be signed later this year, would transform a group known for operating by consensus, and staying out of each other’s affairs, into a rules-based organisation along the lines of the European Union.
That would mean punishing member states that violate the rules -- and that, analysts say, could spell trouble down the road.
“Drafting the charter will be one of the most challenging things Asean has had to do in its 39-year history,” said Clarita Carlos, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines.
The bloc has come in for strong criticism for its “softly, softly” approach to military-ruled Myanmar, the most troublesome member of the ten-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
While nations bristled at a US bid for UN Security Council pressure on Myanmar -- an attempt blocked by China and Russia -- Asean has at the same time been unable to get the regime to move forward on democracy and human rights.
“We respect the sovereignty of Asean members but the essence of regional cooperation is that you contribute part of your national sovereignty for the good of the region,” said Jose Abueva, president of Kalayaan College in Manila.
“The charter will be one of the most important achievements of Asean,” he said, but added that the issue was a “challenge to Myanmar and the whole group”.
At last weekend’s summit in the Philippines, the bloc formally adopted a blueprint put together by a group of “eminent persons” from all ten Asean nations.
Now that blueprint will be taken up by a task force charged with putting together a final charter.
According to the blueprint, traditional decision-making by consensus would be retained wherever possible -- but members would vote on issues if agreement could not be reached.
Serious breaches of the charter would empower leaders to impose sanctions including suspension or expulsion in extreme cases, but it is unclear if the eventual agreement will go that far.
“This is the real test for Asean,” said Soedradjad Djiwandono of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
He said he did not think the tough wording of the blueprint would survive when the final agreement comes into being, but insisted that in any case a charter would be “almost like a new milestone for Asean”.
The group was founded at the height of the Vietnam War in 1967, when the initial five members banded together in an effort to stop the spread of communism in the region.
Since then, communist Vietnam and four other nations, including Myanmar, have joined -- and the bloc is now putting heavy emphasis on creating a free-trade zone by 2015 to remain economically competitive in the 21st century.
Supporters of the charter say implementation of EU-style rules and regulations is an essential part of that, which makes the debate that will unfold in the coming year all the more important.
Analysts say Asean must also burnish its image among the almost 570 million people it represents. Membership ranges from Singapore, with a per capita GDP of some $28,600, to Laos, where it is around $2,000.
“They have to sell it (Asean) to their own people... take it to the grassroots, especially among the poorer members,” Carlos said.
She said that while Asean leaders concern themselves with creating an eventual single market, they should also prioritise more immediate issues such as poverty.
In Laos, 28 per cent of the population lives on less than a dollar a day. In Cambodia it is 33 per cent, and in the Philippines, 14 per cent.
Whether the group will be able to achieve full economic integration in less than a decade is unclear. “It will be a hard sell to ordinary men and women in the street who have no idea what ASEAN is about,” said Carlos.
She said Asean should be seen for what it has prevented rather than what it has produced, and pointed to the group’s role in properly representing its own region.
“It has managed to keep part of the region stable and that is a good thing,” she told AFP. “Asean wants acceptability as a regional organisation whose agenda is not driven by a US agenda and which presents an Asian view.” “It may be a little ambitious,” said Abueva. “But it is a good vision -- and you have to start with good vision to spur you into action.”—AFP
