THE business community, though jittery over the risk-ridden phase of political transition, is hoping that the key actors in politics would conduct themselves responsibly to build on, what they call ‘current economic gains’.

New investors are watching and waiting but those already committed are still upbeat about the prospects of their investments. Despite many odds and political complexities, they find Pakistan to be an attractive destination for their bet with a promise of profit margins high enough to mitigate the risks involved.

Locals pray for stability and continuity of the current set of policies that they felt encouraged private sector like never before. For once, instead of recalling problems posing threat to their businesses, the corporate hierarchy, sensing the blowing winds of change, focused on reasons that earned General Musharraf their backing and why the next government must follow economic policies of the last regime.

Most businessmen contacted, trying to sound positive, were careful in their choice of words when commenting on the current political developments. The community trying to pose neutral, however, has drifted from its earlier preference for a military dominated dispensation. Now they seem to be making an attempt to rediscover the bright side of a democratic Pakistan for business, particularly in context of international trade.

Zubyr Soomro, Citibank’s country officer who heads Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) told Dawn that foreign investors who are members of this powerful grouping are going ahead with their investment plans. “I do not know of any foreign member company that has put their earlier investment plans on hold. Yes, there is concern over law and order and stability of the future government but measures of the government over the last few weeks have rekindled the hope of a peaceful transition”.

There were some reports in newspapers earlier last week suggesting that auto-makers are revising their production targets downwards in wake of falling demand. Some press reports also indicated a fall in the level of activity in luxury items, consumer durables and real estate sector. It, however, is true that so far industrial activity in any part of the country has not been affected in noticeable proportions because of the political turmoil.

Textile tycoons from Punjab were more articulate in explaining their position. “We are indifferent towards political parties in the field but hoping that the next elected government would recognise economy as key driver and treat it accordingly”, said Shafqat Illahi, Chairman All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) from Lahore.

Some international investment advisors have termed fears of abrupt reversal of economic reforms rooted in ignorance.

An analyst of investors’ advisory group Eurasia reported to have said that fears about the future of economic reforms do not hold ground because General Musharraf’s reforms have been institutionalised. “No new government is likely to reverse the proforeign investment environment in that country”, she said while talking to an Indian newspaper.

Majyd Aziz, a senior business leader and expresident of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry wanted the West to reciprocate the pro-democracy steps taken by the president by removing impediments to closer economic ties that include greater market access to Pakistani exports in their markets on favourable terms.

Mirza Ikhtiar Baig, another business leader from Karachi, who intends to fight in the up coming election on a Peoples Party ticket, also found fears of his community towards a political government misplaced.

“A long stability can only be achieved under a democratic government. Look around and see where private sector is prospering most. The growth of the private sector in India proves the point”, he said. He felt that political leadership needs to allay the fears of the business community by pledging to give a clean and an efficient government committed to progress with emphasis on continuity of reforms.

Another local leader from Korangi industrial area, Haseeb Khan expressed his frustration over the western powers’ pressurising General Musharraf unnecessarily. “We told all diplomats who invited us over that the imposition of emergency does not affect us in any way and yet they are pushing him to retract steps he took in good faith to deal with chaos in the country”, he said.

On the preferred composition of the next elected government and the time process of transition could take, there was divergence of opinion amongst movers and shakers of the community. Zubyr felt that the dust would take another three months to settle down. He said that the caretakers who do not have a burden of constituency could help the next elected government by taking necessary difficult decisions such as readjustment and rationalisation of oil prices right now.

He said he would like to see people of integrity and capability in the next government so that the quality of governance is further improved. He said his members are waiting for the political parties to make their economic vision public so that they could form an opinion on the basis of their economic programmes.

Recently Dr Salman Shah, caretaker finance minister, in an interview, hinted that some harsh economic decisions are on cards and could be announced next week.

Majyd Aziz does not see normalcy restored before June next year. He foresees a coalition government assuming power after elections. He urged all political parties to participate in elections to pull the country out of the current crisis.

“Political parties would be disenfranchising people if they decide to boycott the general elections. The next batch of rising stars in business community, in my view, would be those who invested in agribased industry. Nawaz rewarded Chunia crowd, Shaukat Aziz favoured bankers and brokers, time ahead seems to be of businessmen with interest in rural economy”, he said.

A senior bureaucrat who heads a powerful regulatory body saw nervousness of businessmen towards a change in the government to be rooted in the culture of patronage. “It would be absurd to try to find some philosophical meaning to the discomfiture of businesses towards political transition.

The reason is simple: a change could throw their business feasibility to winds as it is often based on an individual’s connections with higher-ups. Let there be strong institutions and let the business be operated professionally to minimise the cost of change to businesses. This would take the wind out of their resistance to change”, he stressed.

On November 29, General Pervez Musharraf swore in as civilian president, in presence of about 1,800 VVIPs in Islamabad, presumably to try out the democratic option to deal with the challenges the country is faced with. As a reconciliatory gesture towards political parties or under pressure of friends overseas he also announced lifting of emergency on December 16.