| December 09, 2007 | Sunday | Ziqa'ad 28, 1428 |
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Energy for Pakistan 2008 & beyond
Crackdown on peaceful dissent
Shape of things now and to come
New missile
Bank robberies
Haj pilgrims & narcotics dept
Munir Malik and others
Turkish president
Readers are requested to restrict their comments to a maximum of 400 words. We reserve the right to edit letters for reasons of clarity and space. Letters, including those by e-mail, should carry the complete postal address of the sender. The views expressed in these columns do not necessarily reflect the views of the newspaper.—Editor
IN its cover story titled ‘Dangerous nation’, the Newsweek magazine of Oct 29 had called Pakistan the most dangerous nation in the world, ahead of Iraq.
Many of the arguments given by its writers are flawed, though some of the facts cited are true and several of its important contentions will be considered here.
First, that the Pakistani leaders themselves created the Islamist monster that now operates with near impunity throughout the country.
Second, today no other country is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan.
Third, militancy is woven into the fabric of Pakistani society. In 1947, the founder of the country, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, used Islam to forge a sense of national identity. After that, various military dictators have found jihad a convenient means of distracting their citizens and furthering their foreign policy aims.
Fourth, in Washington, a senior administration official involved in counter-terrorism said US intelligence is fearful that Islamists might get hold of nuclear material, equipment or know-how in Pakistan. He also alleged that after 9/11 a group of ‘rogue’ scientists met Osama bin Laden, implying cooperation between the two sides.
Finally, it asserted that few Pakistanis desire to live under militants’ rule. However, the country’s moderate alternatives have become almost as unpopular, with a recent poll by the International Republican Institute putting Musharraf’s popularity at a dismal 21 per cent and that of Benazir Bhutto marginally better at 28.
One disagrees with most of these. The US and its western allies who financed the Afghan Mujahideen following the Soviet invasion were the ones who primarily created the Islamist monster blamed on Pakistan’s leaders.
The dishonesty of the writers is exposed by the simple fact that the then president Ronald Reagan had identified very closely with the Mujahideen by saying, “I am Mujahideen,” while welcoming a delegation of the resistance fighters at the White House.
The contention that militancy is integral to the nation’s fabric is untenable. The founder of Pakistan had stated clearly that the country was not going to be a theocracy run by priests with a divine mission; it would rather be a modern, democratic and equalitarian Islamic country.
In his recently published book, the former CIA director, George Tenet, had named a couple of Pakistani nuclear scientists, Bashiruddin Mahmood and Abdul Majeed, as having been among those ‘rogue’ experts that met bin Laden in Afghanistan, who have also been referred to obliquely in the Newsweek story.
It may be of interest for the readers to know that this scribe had briefly encountered Mr Mahmood as his teacher in an engineering college during the 1970s. The gentleman was a dedicated teacher who also seemed very devoted to his job as a principal engineer at the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP). He never showed any hostility towards the US, nor was there any evidence of a terrorist streak in him. Likewise, one had also dealt with a senior PAEC professional named Abdul Majeed during a sales job much later and found him to be an amiable and enlightened character.
Ironically, in the same issue, Kataryzna Radzka, a correspondent from Australia, has criticised the contention of Newsweek’s editor Fareed Zakaria, made in a July issue, that ‘Bad news sells’.
This appears to show the vested interest of the publications in coming out with terrifying reports without realising that these will hurt both Pakistan and the US. Another revelation comes in the magazine’s article by Morton Abramowitz titled, “Bush’s Big Turkish Blunder”, in which he has slammed the US policy on Armenian genocide bill and the Kurdish terrorism, which has alienated Turkey. The world ought to believe that America is making the same bad policy choices towards Pakistan and other Islamic states.
The problem now is Washington’s frenzied backing for Musharraf and arranging ‘deals’ with politicians, as also the western media’s irresponsible reporting, which is hardening the attitude of ordinary Muslims.
K. CHAUDHRY
Karachi
IN the year 2000 when the price of crude was about $10 a barrel I had projected the price going up to $50 a barrel by 2005. This happened a year earlier. On Sept 20 I re-evaluated the oil prices and my evidence suggests that the price will touch $100 a barrel by 2007.
What does 2008 and beyond bode for Pakistan. I expect that by 2019-20 Pakistan energy requirement will grow from present 55 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) to 100 MTOE at the growth rate of 4.2 per cent per annum and 129 MTOE at a growth rate of 5.9 per cent per annum. Domestic energy supply will decline to 42 MTOE by 2019-20, due to declining domestic gas supplies. Natural gas constitutes 50 per cent in the energy mix and major shortages in gas supply will start from 2009-2010. We will see gas shortage by 2009-10 rising from 368 MMCFT per day to 1.40 BCF per day by 2019.
Price of crude recently peaked at about $98 per barrel. Demand for oil has caught up with supply and I believe that prices will stay high because of the growth in the developing world. India, for example, had an annual growth rate of nine per cent for the last five years.
The impact of population, the number of people who are driving cars, the amount of energy being used in driving energy — that’s what is driving prices up. The scale of energy system is enormous.
Forty thousand gallons of oil is consumed every second and that represents one-third of the total global energy system.
Even if the imported gas project materialises which Pakistan is pursuing with Iran, and I have serious doubts about this, the landed cost of gas at the Japan crude cocktail formula will be about $7 per MMCFT against the average price of local gas to Sui Northern and Sui Southern at $2.80 MMCFT. Prices to domestic, commercial and industrial consumers will, therefore, substantially rise.
The government has so far shied away from increasing petroleum prices. The year 2008 will have to see a substantial increase in petroleum prices. Coupled with high petroleum prices and impending gas shortages, Pakistan’s economy should be prepared to receive some serious jolts.
Are we prepared for this?
USMAN AMINUDDIN
Former minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources
Islamabad
WE, the members of the People’s Resistance, a coalition of civil society organisation and individuals, condemn the government’s hardline and brutal actions against peaceful dissent. These recent actions only betray the government’s own weakness:
1. The law ministry’s notification about the retirement of the judges who did not take the oath under the PCO, and the attempted eviction of such judges from their official residences, in particular Justice M.A. Shahid Siddiqui in Lahore.
2. The arrest of lawyers and students holding vigil outside Justice M.A. Shahid Siddiqui’s house in Lahore.
3. The FIRs registered against LUMS faculty members for wall-chalking — Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Aasim S. Akhtar (who is not even in Lahore), Osama Siddique and Farhat Haq (who has not been at the university for the last two years) and a student.
4. The brutal lathi-charge on the huge student-led demonstration in Islamabad on Dec 5
5. The arrest and deportation of two American peace activists who were in Pakistan to express their solidarity with the people. This action and the way it was carried out by armed plainclothesmen further tarnished the image of Pakistan.
We demand:
• The law ministry should immediately withdraw its notification about the judges’ retirement. Caretaker Law Minister Afzal Haider needs to stand up for constitutionality and legality as he is duty-bound to do.
• The immediate release of the lawyers and students arrested outside Justice Siddiqui’s house.
• The immediate withdrawal of the FIRs against the LUMS faculty and student.
We call on the democracy-loving people of Pakistan to join in the struggle for justice. We applaud our friends, the courageous activists of Lahore, who have been forming a physical barrier at the homes of the judge who was being evicted, when they were arrested. We reiterate our refusal to accept the current dispensation with its curbs on the media and the judiciary.
THE PEOPLE’S RESISTANCE
Karachi
TWO seemingly innocuous news items in Friday’s Dawn point toward the shape of things to come.
According to one news item, President Musharraf will not be moving from the Army House in Rawalpindi to the Presidency in Islamabad. The news item says that the Chief of Army Staff, Gen Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, will move to the Army House only after President Musharraf shifts to the Presidency in Islamabad.
Does this sound familiar? One is reminded of the episode between the chancellor of exchequer and the prime minister of the UK. The prime minister, with an expanding family, needed more Lebensraum and took over 9 Downing Street in addition to the 10 Downing. The number 9 being the traditional abode of the chancellor of exchequer meant that the gent would not get to live there. The only way the chancellor could get into # 9 was to grab at # 10 as well. The chancellor is the prime minister today and the then prime minister is looking for a job as a Middle East peace broker.
According to another news item, two times prime minister of the country and an aspirant for a third term, Benazir Bhutto, who was scheduled to fly to Dubai, had to be turned away from the immigration counter at Islamabad airport as she was carrying an expired passport. Gofers were dispatched to bring the current passport from her Islamabad residence only to learn that the valid passport had been forgotten in Karachi. The flight that was delayed for 10 minutes for Ms Bhutto finally left without her and she sulked back home.
The moral of this story is that the minions usually responsible for making sure that the ‘leader’ needs not worry about mundane details of how life works have become party strategists, deal-brokers and king/queen makers in their own right. We all know that life at the top can be lonely, but it can be pretty disorganised as well, if personal secretaries start having personal secretaries of their own.
A DAWN READER
Karachi
IN 1981, the British newspapers had quoted someone as having said: “Britain has invented a new missile. It’s called the Civil Servant – it doesn’t work and it can’t be fired.”
Now, it has come to light that Pakistan has also invented a new missile. It is self-guided, chooses its own targets and is normally covered by a bush. It can’t be guided by anyone else or fired. Also, it uses a locally-developed fuel called ‘propellant-cum-oxidant,” or PCO, for short.
A SCIENTIST
Karachi
BANK robberies are increasing day by day and also getting bolder and bolder, for the simple reason that security arrangements at banks are poor, inappropriate and unimaginative. The first sight one gets on entering a bank is a middle-aged, undernourished and poorly paid security guard of a private agency standing at the gate with a gun hanging on his shoulders absolutely unprepared for an emergency, ready to fall an easy prey to the intruding robbers. Isn’t it highly unimaginative? There are several actions the banks can take to improve the situation. Here are a few:
a. The entrance should be so designed that the folding iron grille usually placed in front of the door should be placed 8-10 feet after the door. There should be revolving turnstiles between the door and the grille to slow down the entry of robbers. The grille instead of a folding one should be a power-operated sliding one which can quickly slide-shut and is locked automatically by push buttons located at several strategic locations. If this is considered an expensive option, then a young, strong and alert teenager, not necessarily a security guard, be posted at the door to operate it at the instant he notices any suspicious movement at the outside door. A strong room can be constructed for him at the door from where he could watch outside scene.
b. Two strong rooms should be located at the first floor level overlooking the entrance hall. One security guard each should sit in each room with guns in ready position covering the entire entrance hall. The rooms should have one-way mirrors and be as inconspicuous as possible. The two security guards must be from different agencies. This is done to pre-empt against the possibility of one of them being an insider to the robbery. This should not be expensive as the payments are usually made proportional to the number of guards hired.
c. All closed circuit TV equipment should be located in a strong room situated at a safe location. There have been instances when the miscreants have taken away this equipment so as not to leave any trace of evidence behind. A responsible supervisor should also sit in this room who should take control of the counter-measures when required. Panic buttons should be provided at several strategic positions to inform the security agencies and the nearest police station in case of emergency. It certainly takes some time for the robbers to collect the booty giving enough opportunity for the help to arrive.
d. The manager should sit in a strongroom surrounded by bullet-proof glass. Because he is the first target of the robbers to get the keys of the safe.
e. Laws should be enacted to penalise the security agency, if the security guard employed by them is involved in the robbery. They should be forced to compensate the loss to the bank.
f. A thorough checking of the premises should be carried out by a responsible officer of the bank at the closing time, before locking up and handing it over to watchmen for the night.
g. Life insurance cover of the security guards by the security agency is taken for granted here.
h. The government should be approached to share a part of the burden of the security of the banks by placing at least a couple of policemen/rangers at each branch of the bank.
I propose the following line of action to achieve some concrete results.
A think tank should be constituted under the auspices of the State Bank of Pakistan comprising representatives of all important banks to give the final shape to the ‘security guidelines for banks’, which can then be made mandatory for all banks to be adopted. They can also propose the laws to be enacted by the government in this regard.
N.A. KHAN
Karachi
THE narcotics department is advising Haj pilgrims through ads in newpapers not to carry food items, soap, toothpaste, etc. This is ridiculous. These items are not banned in Saudi Arabia, only narcotics are.
The pilgrims from India carry ration for their full stay in Saudia. Soap, toothpaste and even food items such as biscuits, chocolate and even canned ‘mithai’ are sold in airport lounges all over the world and no one objects to that.
Saudi Arabia has installed very efficient machines, and suitcases are processed in no time. Last year, out of our group of 50 persons, only two persons’ baggage was checked, both were carrying homoeopathic and similar medicines. They were allowed to carry this after determining that they were not narcotics.
It appears that our narcotics department wants to play lazy.
A.G. HABIB
Karachi
JAVAID Khan has expressed his shock about the illness of Munir Malik as a result of his imprisonment. The correspondent has wondered what kind of treatment facility existed in the jail and demanded that those responsible for his maltreatment be punished in an exemplary way (Dec 1).
While I fully share his sorrow, but would like to point out that those responsible for manhandling Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry have not been punished either, whereas the sentence given by the bench headed by Justice Bhagwandas has been disabled. The ‘facilities’ available to the inmates of jails notably include mental and physical torture and denial of timely or appropriate medical help, while the question of punishing the LEA members does not arise because they are only acting under orders from those who could punish them.
One would also take this opportunity to sympathies with the senior judges who are under house arrest, as also their families. The letter written by Palwasha Iftikhar Chaudhry, the ousted CJP’s youngest daughter, to the ‘Uncle judges’ (Nov 30) should make our rulers think of the suffering they are causing to the innocent children of these conscientious judges.
One must also make a special mention of the suffering of Aitzaz Ahsan as well as Justice (r) Tariq Mahmood – the latter had to be hospitalised.
AHSANULLAH
Karachi
APROPOS of Safeerullah Khan’s letter, ‘Gul’s support to emergency’ (Dec 6), I would like to mention some extracts from the statement of Turkish President Abdullah Gul which he issued while returning from Pakistan to Turkey.
He said: “I have told all Pakistani leaders that Turkey does not intend at all to interfere in the internal affairs of Pakistan. As a brother and friend of Pakistan, Turkey is just trying to help Pakistani people to overcome this crisis. All the political leaders with whom I met believed in resolving the crisis through dialogue.
“I have also been assured by the Pakistan government that the coming elections will be free, fair and transparent. I am also happy that by doffing off the military uniform President Musharraf has fulfilled his promise”.
In my opinion the remarks of Mr Khan that the ‘whole nation was protesting’ were very sweeping, to say the least. As I see in almost all the cities (what to talk of 70 per cent rural population) life is normal and the business is as usual, the general public to me seems to be either in favour of President Musharraf or at best neutral in the present confrontation.
Without minimising the significance of the protest of lawyers, journalists and other sections of civil society, I would observe that only the results of an election can decide whether our nation was against or in favour of President Musharraf.
As regard the genuineness of the public vote, all our present political leaders owed their existence to similar types of elections held in the past. I think Turkish President Abdullah Gul came here with total sincerity of purpose, and dragging him into our petty politics is very unfortunate.
K. MURAD BAY
Karachi
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