Cracks widen in East Europe

Published December 31, 2007

PRAGUE: Ideological issues, corruption and populism pervade the political culture of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland at a time when both economic reform and an improvement in living standards are being promised to bridge the gap with the West.

The integration of the four Central-Eastern European (CEE) member states to the European Union (EU) has continued, and with their entry this month into the Schengen area, a borderless stretch of Europe which now connects 24 countries, another step was taken to bring the CEE countries closer to the ‘old’ EU.

“It might put the old and new Europe closer together, but it may also pull it apart if there’s a big increase in illegal migration or similar problems that could be connected to the Schengen enlargement by the West European press,” Tomas Weiss, research fellow at the Institute of International Relations in Prague said.“But the biggest challenges for these countries will come from within,” says Weiss. ”These regard economic reform and government stability.”

The October election of the liberal Donald Tusk as Prime Minister of Poland was preceded by several corruption scandals and an electoral battle presented as a struggle between liberalism and conservatism, individualism and solidarity.

The election winner Tusk had to tone down his typically liberal rhetoric, and won the elections by promising liberalism with a strong social dimension in a region where communitarian world views hold sway.

Poland’s new government is enjoying public confidence, and expectations are high — yet the country’s new governors want to cut the budget deficit and will have to disappoint some of the public’s welfare expectations.

In Slovakia, disappointment with the previous right-wing cabinet’s allegedly insensitive pro-market reforms led many to rally behind social-democrat Prime-Minister Robert Fico and his solidarity-based policy.

With Fico, who has reached unprecedented levels of popularity, Slovakia looks set to meet Brussels’ criteria and join the euro currency at the beginning of 2009, possibly making it the first CEE country to adopt the yearned for currency.

Nonetheless, Slovakia’s unusual governing alliance of Social Democrats with populist and nationalist extreme-right forces has brought them repeated international condemnation.

A series of xenophobic attacks on Hungarians and other foreigners, which coincided with the presence of the extremist Slovak National Party (SNS) in government, prompted Budapest to increase its diplomatic pressure on Fico to get rid of its openly anti-Hungarian coalition partner.

Slovakia’s large Hungarian minority accounts for approximately 10 per cent of the country’s five million population, and is at the root of the worst relations between two EU neighbours.

Similar pro-market reforms are hitting Slovakia’s historically inimical neighbour, but in the Hungarian case the initiative comes from the left-wing socialist-liberal government. The resulting economic stagnation and increase in prices has made socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány a remarkably unpopular figure in a country that generally thinks little of its politicians.

Ever since violent riots erupted in Budapest in autumn 2006, after the Prime Minister’s admitted lying to the electorate on the state of the economy, protests by opposition supporters and violence by extremists have marked each national holiday.

Gyurcsány is refusing to heed the opposition’s repeated calls for his resignation, and seems determined to conclude his reforms, but a popular referendum on some of the unpopular austerity measures, expected for next spring, could leave him on very shaky ground.The long-term alliance of the socialists with a liberal force has opened way for the right-wing conservative opposition to gain strength by increasingly suggesting an economic policy closer to classic socialist parties, accusing the Hungarian socialists of betraying left-wing values and pursuing neo-liberal reforms.

The Czechs are also pushing through an economic programme that is downsizing the strongest welfare state in the region — but the governing neo-liberals are being slightly contained by their conservative and green junior coalition partners.

The first year of governance in the right-wing cabinet has further disillusioned the most apathetic electorate in the region. Most Czechs have decided to turn their backs on a political landscape dotted by corruption scandals and the anti-Roma racism of some in the governing coalition.

The frequent disagreements and dissatisfaction within the coalition — which commands a very weak majority in parliament and has little public support — could culminate in early elections.

But before any legislative elections can take place, President Vaclav Klaus will run for another presidential mandate. While controversial abroad for his sceptical views on climate change and European integration, Klaus enjoys decent popularity levels, though he will be challenged by Jan Svejnar, a liberal economist who is said to have a chance in the presidential race.

The Czechs, as well as the Poles, will also have a busy schedule in the diplomatic arena, where negotiations with the US to set up a missile defence system in the country will continue to play a role in domestic politics.

Czechs are largely opposed to the radar base being built on Czech soil in spite of an intense government and media campaign supporting US plans.

The analyst believes the CEE countries will be especially interested in the destiny of Kosovo, the autonomous Serbian region which could be heading towards independence.—Dawn/IPS News Service

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