NAIROBI: The only way out of the deadly crisis that has rocked Kenya for a month is a political deal, which analysts said on Thursday was likely to include creation of a prime minister position for the opposition.

Since a dispute erupted over the Dec 27 polls, with opposition leader Raila Odinga accusing President Mwai Kibaki of stealing the vote, Kenya has been mired in its worst crisis in 25 years.

Because no clear majority emerged from the parliamentary ballot for the first time since the 1963 independence, bills risk being systematically blocked and the country's institutions locked in a prolonged stalemate.

Odinga has ruled out resorting to courts he says are controlled by Kibaki, while the street confrontation between opposition supporters and police has led to violence for which both sides have been blamed.

“Normally the way you deal with a coup is a counter-coup. Maybe that's too drastic because it will lead to more loss of lives. So you have to look for other ways,” said Hwo Okoth-Ogendo, from the University of Nairobi.

“I call it a drastic constitutional change: to amend the constitution by creating a power sharing mechanism,” he said.

Such an option would see the creation of a post of prime minister for Odinga or a member of his movement while Kibaki retains the presidency with fewer prerogatives.

Earlier this month, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer both suggested such a power sharing arrangement could break the deadlock.

“This (constitutional) amendement will convert Kenya into a parliament system where the country is ruled by an executive prime minister,” Okoth-Ogendo explained.

Such a constitutional amendment would have to be approved by two-thirds majority in parliament, but the opposition only won the first vote in the assembly by a very narrow simple majority.

“The president can say no to a constitutional amendment. It's a question of political compromise,” Nairobi-based analyst and lawyer Evans Monari said.

“This means such a reform needs a political agreement” between Kibaki and Odinga, said Francois Grignon, head of the Africa programme at the International Crisis Group think-tank.

The two foes were due to meet on Thursday for the first time since the dispute erupted a month ago in a three-way meeting mediated by former UN chief Kofi Annan.

Odinga told a german television network on Wednesday that he was ready to accept a power-sharing deal. “We are prepared to share power with him. He would remain president and we would take the prime minister's job,” he said.

But Kibaki has not yet spoken on the matter and only expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with the opposition.

Grignon argued that for both sides to grow out of their hardline stances and accept a compromise, Annan's internationally-backed mediation “is an important element... as is regional and economic pressure.” Short of such an agreement, seen as the best way of appeasing growing ethnic resentment, both sides still have a trump card.

The opposition can file a motion of no-confidence, for which it requires a simple majority in parliament, and obtain a re-run of the presidential election, Okoth-Ogendo said.

But ODM has been reluctant to push for it, as it would most likely entail new parliamentary polls as well and many elected lawmakers may be reluctant to put their newly-acquired seats on the line.

Analysts point out that Kibaki's Party of National Unity could hit back by buying opposition MPs and tipping parliament back in its favour.—AFP