PAKISTAN Muslim League-Q goes to the polls under immense pressure. Three months ago, when President Musharraf reasserted his power by hammering down the judiciary and media, the party could not imagine the events would boomerang the way they have.

Suddenly, the party is on the defensive all across. The accumulative anger of the last eight years over a range of issues, sparked by Benazir Bhutto’s assassination and topped by crises of wheat, electricity and lawlessness, is taking its toll.

The electoral fighting machine that Mr Musharraf tailored to perpetuate himself for yet another tenure is in a shambles. PML-Q seems utterly confused about its electoral strategy just when it was required to deliver. Party stalwarts are not sure whether Mr Musharraf is an asset or a liability. The erstwhile star campaigner, Mr Pervaiz Musharraf, is being shown less and less. New party posters show the Quaid and Iqbal alongside their modern counterparts (alas)---Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi, minus Musharraf. PML-Q’s official website flashes, strangely, BBC’s news “Musharraf is dangerous -- please resign.” Even Sheikh Rashid has removed Mr Musharaf’s hoarding from his famed Lal Haveli. Whether PML-Q can survive without the guardian angel, only time will tell.

For the PML-Q, the upcoming poll is more about its very survival. It is yet to be seen what shape will it take after February 18: Will it whither away like Ayub Khan’s Convention League; will it be reduced to one-man parties like the Junejo League, the Jinnah League (Wattoo) or the Zia League, all of which are now merged into PML-Q; will it become like Functional League of Pir Pigaro, which may be small faction but somehow always retains its independent entity.

The case of PML-Q makes it different also because of all those splinter groups like National Alliance of Farooq Leghari and PPP Patriots who may still hate the Chaudhrys of Gujrat but have become, will nilly, part of PML-Q. Who will join which party as many of them, for instance Farooq Leghari, are having an intra-party fight? A closer parallel might be IJI, which was created by the establishment for the perpetuation of controlled democracy model. It took Nawaz Sharif to transform it into a political party, passing the endurance test particularly during the opposition phase after 1993. Benazir Bhutto’s PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PML have proved their resilience by bouncing back for the third time.

The Chaudhrys of Gujrat have not passed the test of time in a lead role as yet. The future of PML-Q hinges on the question whether it will be able to survive without Mr Musharraf.

Reports that they have already sold large chunks of their family property do not bode well for the party. But the race remains wide open till February 18.

For the time being, the national character of the party is in tatters. The joke going around political circles is that PML stands for Punjab Muslim League or, for the cynics, Pervaiz (Elahi) Muslim League.

He is the only provincial party president who is flashed on the official website as much as the party ideologue (and webmaster) Mushahid Hussain, Shujaat Hussain being a distant third.

The feeling about PML-Q being just about Punjab is not without reason. Its presence in the smaller provinces is thinning out dangerously. Sindh party chief Arbab Rahim is hardly the Muslim League type, whatever that means.

Under his great command, the Sindh chapter has been all but wiped off after Ms Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. A recent visit to the interior of Sindh confirmed that PML-Q candidates are afraid of putting up a party flag, let alone campaign for elections.

The situation in Balochistan is not different. The Baloch nationalists blame the PML-Q government for the killing of Nawab Bugti. The Pashtun nationalists under Mahmood Khan Achakzai have joined in by boycotting the elections. The vacuum is likely to be filled either by PPP or, dangerously, by religious extremists. Party chief Jam Yousaf and Yar Mohamad Rind, the two candidates who have better chances of winning in Baloshistan, are relying more on their tribal affiliations than party votes.

The party is so deficient in leadership that they had to make turncoat Ameer Muqam, who got elected on an MMA ticket, as the NWFP president. Even senior PML-Q leaders do not nurture high electoral hopes in the province that remains aflame with violence from Bajaur to Waziristan.

Fortress Punjab, strangely, is not without its problems. The urban areas that account for nearly half of the 148 elected Punjab seats emanate revolting vibes. Even in the much manipulative 2002 elections, a good majority of Punjab urban seats went to PML-N and PPP. Both opposition parties are hoping for a near sweep in Punjab cities this time around and not without justification. Then south of Punjab, which comprises half of Punjab, also shows rebellious sentiments against what they call Takht

Lahore, a euphemism used for the rule of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, incidentally a Warraich like the Chaudhrys of Gujrat.

A busload of PML MNAs from south Punjab, including federal ministers Hina Rabbani and Jahangir Tareen, parliamentary secretary Sanaullah Mastikhel, Tasnim Nawaz Gardezi, Akhtar Kanju, Rashid Akbar Niwani, Farooq Azam Malik, Major Tanvir and Sami Hassan Gillani have been refused party tickets.

The party seems rudderless with its stalwarts embroiled in a trail of intrigues, defections and infighting. The PML-Q relies primarily on its Nazims for manipulating the polls, sometimes against their own candidates like Dr Sher Afgan, Daniyal Aziz, Farooq and Awais Leghari.

The PML-Q is the sole party in the country’s history that could not establish its oganisation despite enjoying the longest-ever stint in power. It is also the only party that completed its five-year term and Pervaiz Elahi the only chief minister who stayed on his job for the whole term. And yet the party apparatus at the grassroots is either non-existent or has turned haywire. Every district has a story to tell of intra-party wrangling.

Their failure seems colossal considering the rare advantages the party has enjoyed. The party relished five years of complete independence with the full support of establishment personified in President Pervez Musharraf. They had a subdued opposition in the absence of mainstream politicians, a relatively pliant judiciary, except for the last six months. Parties, for instance the PPP in 1968 or PML Nawaz in 1990, established themselves at grassroots in half the time.

The PML-Q is an organisational mess. Have a closer look at credentials of the party hierarchy: Party president Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain is not known for his charisma or communication skills. A chronic mumbler, he took five takes for a 30 second election message recently that had in background the picture of the Quaid, who being one of the greatest orator of the Raj must be turning in his grave to see inarticulation of his alleged successor.

Secretary General Mushahid Hussain has on the official website the longest CV that may dwarf even the profile of Hillary Clinton. It also mentions that he was held in custody for 440 days, Nelson Mandela like, by the army junta (that he is since working for). The only quality he does not mention is what should be a basic even for a village politician -- contesting direct election.

He has never contested even the elections of an ordinary councillor.

Information secretary Tariq Azeem also came through a backdoor as did most of the party. Vice-president Majid Malik has left, Kabir Wasti kicked out, others waiting for the right time to jump off the ship.

Foremost is the crisis of leadership. The party needs a cheer leader in polls. In any other country, the natural selection would have been one of the three PML-Q prime ministers. Shaukat Aziz was denied even the basic ticket and is now being accused by Pervaiz Elahi of leaving behind the crises of wheat, electricity and even bananas. Mir Zafarullah Jamali is striving to join the party of Nawaz Sharif, whom he publicly called as dimwit. Shujaat Hussain has somehow withdrawn himself from the race. His bigger concern these days is to file a case against the British for stripping his brother naked.

That just leaves Pervaiz Elahi in the field. How is he leading the party?

What are the prospects of PML-Q in Punjab? For that see tomorrow’s issue.

Amir Mateen is a senior political analyst. He will be doing a series of articles in the run-up to Feb 18 elections, analysing the strength and weaknesses of some of the main political parties, assessing the contest in some of the key constituencies and important regions and the crucial factors that may upset the results or turn the tables on the day of polling. This is first of the two-part piece on PML-Q. The second part will appear tomorrow.