THE upcoming elections are not just about who becomes the prime minister of Pakistan. An equally important issue, particularly for the outside world, would be to see the fate of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) in the vote count.

This will reflect not just the mood of the voters about the rise of Pakistani Taliban in Peshawar’s famous Qissa Khawani Bazaar but also determine, strange as it may sound, the success of President George Bush’s policies in this part of the world. In between the two extremely different situations, there is a long chain of trends that will be revealed by the MMA results.

It will be important to see how, where, why and who in the MMA wins. And why not? This may have a bearing on local and foreign policies of all the countries — roughly half the world — involved in Afghanistan.

The MMA may be the only political party in the world whose election results could have an impact on the coming US elections. If it sounds far fetched, consider this: If the MMA wins big time this can mean that Pakistani Islamists are on the rise, which in turn could strengthen the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which, yet again, will mean that 50,000 foreign, mainly US, troops will remain stuck in that country.

The constant bleeding of US money and forces is already taking a toll on President Bush and is likely to impact the elections even more in the days to come. Rightly or wrongly an MMA victory will rekindle US demons about the Taliban or their allies getting hold of nuclear arsenal.

This small outfit of the burly, bearded Maulanas of Pakistan are perceived as having the power to turn the world upside down. Against this backdrop, the West can heave a sigh of relief that the MMA, according to most estimates, is on its way down. It stands in disarray. The two main components, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-F and Jamaat-i-Islami, have all but parted ways. The more militant Samiul Haq faction of the JUI has already been thrown out.

There is a power tussle on between two JUI seniors — Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Maulana Sheerani. In Balochistan, Maulvi Ismatullah has divided the party votes, making his own ‘Ideological faction’, while another important leader Maulvi Noor Mohammad has boycotted the polls. With the JI boycotting the polls the MMA’s 2002 tally of 59 national seats, estimates suggest, could plunge to eight directly elected seats.

The biggest factors contributing to their expected downslide are: the resurgence of the PPP because of better candidates and the sympathy created by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto; the comeback staged by the Awami National Party of Asfandyar Wali; the backlash against the MMA policies and, finally, Jamaat-i-Islami working against JUI candidates in most places. Some say there is a possibility, no matter how remote, that the JUI, seeing its prospects dwindling, might pull out of the elections at the last minute.

Even if this happens, critics argue, the mess that has been created by the religious alliance will take long to clean. They leave behind a deep, smoky impact on life in and around Peshawar, the capital of their first-ever supposedly Islamic model government, the Frontier province and the country had seen.

Peshawar looks like a ghost town to anybody who has not been there in the last five years. There are pickets all around, broken roads, garbage galore, and the police and the administration demoralised. Nobody stops at red signals, a small thing that tells the bigger story of the great historical, law-abiding city that it once was.

The province is littered with and surrounded by flash points from Bajaur to Waziristan in the tribal belt and Swat to the settled areas right outside Peshawar in Darra Adamkhel. It may not be their doing alone but they share a definite responsibility, having been in government there.

The political landscape is reeling under their legacy in the shape of the 17th Amendment. The MMA did nothing to check the Talibanisation of the Frontier with violence now threatening to engulf the entire region.

Political commentators say the buck stops with one person — Maulana Fazlur Rehman. Considering the global impact he creates from that small town on the banks of the River Indus, D. I. Khan, and the Maulana’s importance may often be understated.

There are many sides to his personality. A versatile man he can speak Arabic, Persian, Urdu, Seraiki, Punjabi and reasonable English. His knowledge of literature, religion, politics and history is matched in parliament only by Aitzaz Ahsan.

Yet we find strange linkages between him and events that shake the world every now and then. South Koreans get kidnapped in Afghanistan; the first person their ambassador approaches in Islamabad is the Maulana. A Norwegian gets picked up in Kashmir, their diplomats come to him. Things happen to people in Iraq, Libya or Saudi Arabia, and he is able to help them all the time and yet the last time he went to Dubai, they deported him unceremoniously.

Perhaps realising his potential when she was prime minister, Benazir Bhutto made him Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the National Assembly. People joked about it but, some say, it was a master stroke that bettered things in Afghanistan, Kashmir, and who knows, even beyond.

“It might sound funny but if President Bush replaces (Secretary of State) Condi with the Maulana, half of his problems may get solved for the JUI chief is the only person who has connections in the two countries — Iraq and Afghanistan — where President Bush has the biggest number of problems and troops. Ideologically, he may even share Bush’s policy on Iran,” says a visibly sceptical MMA watcher.

He is at best ambiguous about where he may stand on an issue. He was leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, and yet he retained the government in the NWFP. His party is disunited and yet it continues to be called Muttahida (united). He was with the lawyers in their movement on occasion, and yet on others he appeared indifferent. He was opposed to the National Security Council of Musharraf and yet he would sometimes send his chief minister to attend it. And, of course, who would forget his decision not to seek the dissolution of the Frontier Assembly till after Gen Musharraf’s re-election as president late last year.

He controls the MMA which has ideological affinity with militant outfits from Oxus down to Brahmaputra. In the last assembly, the MMA had members with CVs that would make the CIA shake in their boots.

One of them, who attempted to broker a deal during the Lal Masjid stand-off, openly bragged he was Osama’s bodyguard for years. Another one, heir to the chief of Akora Khattak seminary where Mullah Omar studied briefly, was also battle trained in Afghanistan. Yet another two had the experience of the Kashmir Jihad.

It is amazing that the spooks spend so much money and time searching for them in the rugged tribal areas when they can find them closer to home in Islamabad, in fact in the plush halls of parliament. Everybody knows this situation exists yet nobody talks about it.

Nobody knows how many of this brand is contesting this time. There are rules for banning political rallies — a basic ingredient of any elections — but there are no systems to check if a candidate has been/is a militant.