MOSCOW: Russia will protest when the West recognises Kosovo’s independence, but it will keep its ultimate weapon granting recognition to separatist regions in its own backyard in reserve for later.
The Serbian province is expected to declare its independence on Sunday, followed by recognition from the United States and most European Union states.
Belgrade’s big-power ally Russia opposes independence for Kosovo and President Vladimir Putin said this week he had a plan of retaliation ready to put into action.
Analysts and diplomats say Russia is likely to block the United Nations from recognising Kosovo, a step that will not prevent it, however, from gaining widespread international recognition.
It could also give its encouragement to the Serb-majority enclave around Kosovo’s northern city of Mitrovica, which has said it could split off from the newly-independent state.
But beyond these steps, Russia does not have many options for retaliation.
“Putin and everyone else will say this is a monstrous mistake, a flagrant violation of international law,” said Fyodr Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
“But at the same time I think apart from these sound effects the package of measures (Russia can take) today is limited.”
RECOGNITION THREAT
Russian officials have hinted in the past that Western recognition of Kosovo could be followed by Moscow recognising the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions of its ex-Soviet neighbour Georgia.
Tbilisi’s Western allies say the regions should remain part of Georgia. Russia calls this a double standard, saying the ex-Soviet breakaway states can make a case for recognition just as strong as Kosovo’s.
But Moscow is more likely to save this threat for a fight to keep Georgia from joining Nato. Tbilisi has applied to the alliance for a Membership Action Plan (MAP), the first step on the path to accession.
“Another variation on this theme, about what might be kept in reserve, is for the more serious problem: what if a MAP were to be given to Georgia?” a Western diplomat said.
“If they shoot everything off now, they don’t have anything left with which to threaten,” said the diplomat.
Analyst Lukyanov said he believed impeding Georgia’s Nato membership, and not Kosovo, was Moscow’s long-term focus.
“As I understand it, Russia is making quite a strong link that the prospect of recognising Abkhazia becomes stronger if Georgia gets this Membership Action Plan,” he said.
In the meantime, Russia could increase the pressure on Georgia and its Western allies by beefing up its already close ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow gives cash to the separatists and most residents have Russian passports.
A foreign ministry statement on Friday said Western recognition of Kosovo would “without doubt” influence its policy towards the two Georgian regions.
“What I think will happen ... will be a demonstrative widening of links with Abkhazia. Not diplomatic recognition. That will probably not happen,” said Lukyanov.
“But (Russia will) launch all sorts of visits, agreements, humanitarian assistance ... Everything but recognition.”
He said Russia would use as a model Washington’s relations with Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China sees as part of its territory. Washington does not recognise Taiwan’s sovereignty but it is the island’s biggest ally and supplies it with arms.—Reuters
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