572 seats in the four provinces have broken all records of election spending. Flying in private jets and helicopters and road running in bullet-proof four-wheelers, to cover constituencies, they have been attending well-guarded rallies in an effort to reach out to the multitude. Media campaigns, feeding meals to lure voters and plastering walls with posters and raising millions of banners and party flags, has meant spending of staggering sums. For the moment, ‘investment’ is the word, ‘recovery’ — if at the back of mind — and the ethics of the transparency or rationalisation of it all will come later.

What better time can there be to explore the many dimensions of

In this special report the team of Dawn’s economic reporters assesses the costs against economic opportunities that an election throws up for enterprising Pakistanis waiting in the wings for such an occasion

KARACHI: Informal estimates have put the financial cost of Election 2008 at an astounding Rs200 billion. The projected average cost of electioneering for a National Assembly seat has stood at Rs50 million, while for a provincial assembly it has been no less than Rs20 million. The per capita election expenditure, as such, comes to Rs1,125 and spending per voter was simply double the amount at Rs2,250 as half the population of 160 million (81 million) qualifies to vote. If the turnout is assumed to be 50 per cent, each vote will become dearer by cent per cent and spending per vote will add up to Rs5,000.

These estimates were arrived at after an extensive exercise of informal surveys by Dawn staffers in a number of cities across the country. As political parties and candidates were found to be not very enthusiastic in sharing with public the financial side of their electioneering, the estimates were made by projecting cost of different heads of expenditure such as acquiring cars, management of ward offices, election camps, paid workers in certain cases, distribution of mobile phones amongst the working team especially in rural areas, media campaign, transport rentals, cost of maintaining campaigners, private security arrangements, publication of posters and other related material, etc. and then adding them all up.

About half of the total cost of Rs200 billion has been channelled through candidates. The other half is shared by the Election Commission, the donors who provided transparent ballot boxes and training, provincial governments who will be responsible for additional security cost of the election exercise in their jurisdiction and by the central secretariat of political parties that were responsible for handling the national projection campaigns and movement and security of their key national leaders.

The quantum of spending varies across provinces, candidates and parties. The election spending in Punjab is most visible where leaders are said to be flying in private jets and choppers, using the latest models of luxurious cars, engaging most advanced security apparatus in addition to everything else that the others are indulging in. If the contribution of Punjab to the total projected amount is deducted, the average will have a serious dash downwards, but would certainly continue to be many times more than the claimed amount of spending.

A major head that has increased the cost of electioneering astronomically is the massive media campaign that all major political parties have undertaken. There are said to be 25 to 30 local channels and as many newspapers running paid promotional stuff. One quarter-page advertisement in major newspapers costs over Rs100,000. Airtime on TV channels is calculated in terms of per second. That there have been advertisements more than a minute long in duration and that they have been on air for the last three months tell their own tale with respect to the amount of money that as been spent by political parties. By most accounts, the PML-Q seems to have run the most expensive media campaign of all.

Unlike commercial entities that normally maintain 70:30 ratio of ATL (above the line) to BTL (below the line), political parties, probably knowingly as a part of their strategy or guided by real-time requirements, maintained the inverse ratio of 30:70. This means that central cell responsible for brand-selling got 30 per cent of the total cost of electioneering and the balance 70 per cent was utilized by their candidates according to the demands of their constituencies.

The political parties and individual candidates contacted by the Dawn team were very cautious in commenting on the economics of electioneering. Almost all of them understated their election budget. They were particularly secretive regarding the sources of funding and the mode of money transfers that fed their campaigns. The numbers they quoted for their entire campaign cannot buy even one day of paraphernalia that goes into a campaign. The cost of one jeep, for instance, is more than the total spending limit allowed and the fleet of vehicles in use feature quite a few of these four-wheeler. Besides, for their leadership at least, most parties acquired well-equipped, latest versions of bullet-proof double-excel vehicles.

If the spending has been lavish, it is fair to say that the limits set by the Election Commission were also unrealistic, to put it politely. “How can an NA candidate organise a month-long campaign for Rs1-1.5 million? More is spent on meals alone during the campaign,” a political activist told Dawn.

Never before any consolidated figure of the cost of an election has been worked out which makes it impossible to cross-compare the current cost with that incurred in a similar exercise earlier. The last general elections were held in 2002, under the tutelage of the military-led dispensation. However, most candidates privately admitted that both inflation and information explosion have contributed to jack up the cost by at least three times in 2008, if not more, over the last elections.

Except for the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) that has borne the major burden of the election cost of their candidates, all other contesting political parties confirmed that their candidates have to finance their campaigns privately. They are, in fact, called upon to contribute a certain specified sum to the party fund at the time of applying for nomination and more when they are granted party tickets.

All nominees who wished to contest election on Pakistan Peoples Party ticket were required by the party to submit a non-refundable application fee of Rs15,000 for PA seat and Rs25,000 for NA seats in Sindh. For the PML(N), these rates were slightly lower. In the case of PML-Q, there was no standard amount. At certain seats in Punjab, candidates have reported to have paid huge amounts, but in many other constituencies, the party had to spend money of its own to lure potential candidates into the contest. After the final selection for a party ticket, about four times the amount of the application fee had to be donated to the party.

The provinces of Balochistan and the NWFP were comparatively quiet for obvious reasons. In Balochistan, the ongoing mini-insurgency has played its part. The boycott call by All-Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) that has in its fold nationalist Balochistan National Party and PakhtoonKhwa Milli Awami Party along with many religious parties that enjoy some base in Balochistan in Pashto-speaking areas of the province, has added to the sentiments of distrust towards the process of elections.

The election campaign, therefore, never really picked up there. In Quetta, some activity was generated by the PPP and some influential independent candidates, but that has failed to generate heat that drives candidates to spend on innovative electioneering.

The restive NWFP that has been in the eye of the terrorist storm, suffered because of the security scare. Many corner meetings of ANP, PPP and PML(Q) came under attack, while the boycott of religious parties also dealt a blow to electioneering in the province.

In Karachi, much of the budget of political parties and candidates remained diverted towards ensuring visibility through posters, banners, flags and huge hoardings. The low turnout at meetings was reflective of the threat of a possible terrorist strike and the virtual absence of any real challenge to the Muttahida candidates in a number of constituencies. The demand for transport and marriage halls did not pick up as the campaign progressed, and it remained largely focused on the visibility factor. As a result, business houses equipped with modern panaflex paraphernalia did a roaring business, while media houses also benefited from the boom.

In the interior of Sindh, terrorist scare kept people from attending rallies, which, in turn, discouraged political parties from holding corner meetings. Perhaps, the impression that after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the PPP will hold sway in Sindh – minus Karachi, that is – must have also affected the pattern of spending by candidates. The average spending, as such, is stated to be on the lower side of the national average.

It was the biggest and most prosperous province of Punjab where the election theme was played to the fullest. The PML-Q, the PPP and the PML-N, all had their stakes there and none afforded any lapse of concentration. Candidates in close-contest constituencies in Central Punjab are known to have gone overboard in their zest to lure voters. It is understandable that average spending by the aspirants crossed all limits and jacked up the national average as the more influential of the lot used private jets and helicopters in their campaigns.

“The fact is that the Elections 2008 would be won or lost in Punjab,” said an analyst who wished not to be named. Whatever the results, the electioneering has given a boost to demand of a variety of products and services, and, for many, it was god while it lasted.

Some financial experts felt that it was actually the black money that was used to fund the electioneering. There was, however, no way to confirm or reject the view in the absence of any account-keeping on the part of any political party. When there are no accounts, there can hardly be an audit.

There is no way of knowing how much of the campaign funding is legitimate, or who are the people financing which campaign. If swindlers support candidates of a party to power, they would surely seek protection of their interests from future legislators. Therefore, most developed countries have legislations to ensure transparency.

It would probably take the country many more elections at some regular intervals to be able to develop some culture of transparent account-keeping, and many more to understand the need and the utility of getting them audited. Till that happens, the spending will remain lavish.