Voter types in Lahore
By Asha’ar Rehman
THE time has come, and one will see a fascinating assortment of voters egged on to the polling station by their biradari, their elders, their party and indeed by their conscience. After all the analyses of the last few months, and of years gone by, stereotyping voters is as hazardous as it was when Adam and Eve had the whole world to themselves. Man is prone to give in to the heart’s calling at the last moment.
Minds have been made up, or so we are told, what with all these survey results pouring in from guessers near and far, despite warnings by President Pervez Musharraf who, like a true patriarch, is so very concerned with his subjects getting false ideas in their heads. Just when he was expected to assert his neutrality before a general election, he has come up with a statement on the virtues of 58(2)b and how the notorious law had in the past acted as a shield against the same political parties who are being tipped to come to power as a result of the Feb 18 polls.
Away from the presidential rigmarole in the common man’s Lahore, PML workers are seen prudently dropping the letter Q in favour of N as they strive to stay in the mainstream without jeopardising their right-of-centre ideology. Voting for the Pakistan People’s Party, which may be riding a popular wave in other parts of the country, still sounds preposterous to many among them.
They are the PML-N voters, but who are they? They may be shopkeepers, businessmen, a large number of well-meaning elderly passersby who tell the potentially rebellious youngsters to stick to the middle path, perhaps some who had personally benefited during the Sharif rule. They may also be people who are genuinely upset at the treachery the PML-N’s leaders, Messrs Sharif and Sharif, have suffered at the hands of their old friends who now run a rival PML faction. Not to forget the Lahoris who are still thankful to the Sharifs for a prim and prosperous Lahore that they created during their rule and those who think the Sharifs are the last and the only choice we are left with.
Who else is going to vote for the PML-N? Those who have come to respect Mian Nawaz Sharif for his role after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December last? There will be very few such people, if any. Kashmiris? Maybe yes, maybe no; it is hard to distinguish them from the crowd that, everyone believes, is going to vote for the party.
Just as difficult to count are the votes the PML-N candidates are supposed to get because of their personal credentials. Not because these votes are numerous: the votes simply don’t exist. It is the Sharif name that matters and its bearers have their task cut out for them, for a sizeable proportion of their voters are going to side with them thinking that they are up against a system striving to thwart them. This is not the usual scenario the Sharifs have been faced with in the past and if they so desire, they would have to be very careful not to lose this newfound credibility with the people.
On this latest count, these PML-N voters are a bit like the PPP voters in Lahore, but they are most certainly not as badly placed as they were in the election of 2002. They then knew for sure that their party had no chance of staking a claim to power in Lahore or in Islamabad in the absence of the Sharifs who were in exile. They still voted for the relatively lesser known faces seeking to retain the city for the Sharifs.
The Sharifs have no magic wand in their hands. They used methods that have been copied by their old friends in the PML-Q. The similarities are going to fuel long debates about how the same tactics can lead to different results for different practitioners. The last time around, the PML-Q won by managing to muster the anti-PPP vote and by relying heavily on the establishment’s help, which is like saying, as was said in the case of the Sharifs for many decades, that the PML-Q had no vote bank of its own.
If they exist, the signs of PML-Q having invented a voter of its own have so far eluded the keen observer. It is hard to tell which type is going to vote for the party. Maybe those who identify with the ideals set by President Pervez Musharraf, those who fear that the country can’t afford to bring in the president’s perceived opponents to power as also those who believe in the president’s and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi’s allegations that both the PML-N and the PPP had run incompetent and corrupt governments in the past.
The talk that the party’s reliance on an individual’s personal vote bank may earn it some votes, maybe even a few seats, further hampers categorisation, even a loose one, of the PML-Q voter. The party has desperately tried to tap into the anti-PPP pool, drawing voters and then innocently delivering them to the PML-N, a moderate alternative to the dangerous PPP.
It’s obviously expecting its nazims to deliver the numbers to it all over Punjab. In Lahore, in a desperate moment, it may be moved to use the official machinery for some respectability.
The story would, of course, be incomplete without the voter who must and the voter who might vote for the PPP — beginning with the poorest of the poor. He may be the wayward soul, the idealist or the incorrigibly emotional type unperturbed by the tirade he and his party have attracted over the years. He may be the most boisterous of them all or the quietest of the lot, in accordance with the party slogan, avenging the death of Benazir Bhutto in the secrecy of a ballot box.
He may be anti-Musharraf and in favour of a dialogue with the militants — even when party leaders hint that they may decide to work with the president and may be partial to resolving militancy through force. Most likely, he is going to be a Bhutto loyalist.


Dilemma of Cricket Australia
By S. Khalid Husain
CRICKET Australia’s tour of Pakistan next month which has been dithering for some time seems headed for cancellation for reasons of security. Two items in this newspaper on Feb 13 elucidated on the security concerns which Cricket Australia officials may want to consider.
The first item is a letter from a reader saying if the government cannot ensure the safety of the faithful in mosques during Friday prayers how can it offer security guarantees to the Australian team.
There is much to what the reader says. It would be interesting to hear what the voluble caretaker interior minister has to say about all this. Volubility must be a requisite to be made a caretaker minister for most have not stopped chirping after taking oath. The prize for the most piercing chirps, however, has to go to Nisar Memon, the caretaker minister of information, for his threats to stand the media on its head, and so soon too after the president had done just that. The Australians seem to share the letter writer’s view for they have virtually said, ‘Thanks but no thanks,’ to the PCB chairman’s offer of head of state-level security for the team.
The other item is Dawn columnist Hafizur Rahman’s article ‘Armed guards’. His article must have set the Australians thinking. If a federal minister can jog in a public park with his armed guard or gunmen as they are known here, maybe, just maybe, the Australians can take the field with a gunman assigned to each player.
Imagine the two Australian opening batsmen walking to the pitch to open the innings, with a gunman alongside each. When runs are made, the gunmen also run with the batsmen. The umpires will have to be watchful that not only the batsmen but also the gunmen do not run on the centre of the pitch. Run-out decisions would be tricky. The umpires will have to be sure it is the batsman they give out, not the gunman. The batsmen dashing across the pitch to make a run against the throw of a fielder is frenzy enough, with the gunmen also running it would be something more than frenzy.
When the Australian side has to field it will be a crowded affair, what with 11 fielders with a gunman next to each. Brett Lee hurtling in to bowl with the gunman panting and puffing alongside as Lee launches his pacer. Not Lee, but the gunman will have to be changed after every three balls, there are just not any fit enough to keep up with Brett Lee and the other Aussie pacers. Aussie pacers seem to be made of sterner stuff than our Shoaib Akhtars and Mohammad Asifs who need R&R (rest and recreation) after every over and a half.
A straight drive from Misbahul Haq and an Australian fielder takes off after the ball at almost the speed of sound and saves a four, the gunman left far behind. That’s not on. Security demands that the gunman cannot be left behind; the fielder is counselled by the umpire not to outrun the gunman. Next three shots by Misbah are all fours.
No, it does not look like the Aussies would want to go for the former federal minister’s security regimen. The decision to go, or not go, on the Pakistan tour remains on hold.
The writer is a retired corporate executive


