IS there any substance in the reports of growing closeness between the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), against their common adversaries — the PML-Q and its creator and guru, President Pervez Musharraf? Or is it just hot air?

Most analysts believe that the distance between the sworn enemies from the past is narrowing fast in the run-up to Monday’s election in spite of deep differences over certain issues related to the reinstatement of the superior judiciary and working under President Musharraf.

This coming together of old adversaries is something new and may have far-reaching repercussions on politics in the country, especially Punjab, the make or break province which actually creates the justification for this alliance. Just like it had once created a justification for their rivalry.

The projections for the Feb 18 election say that the PPP and PML-N together are going to get a good majority of national and provincial seats from Punjab and could well be in a position to form a government in Islamabad and in Lahore. Their opponent, the official PML-Q, has tried to paint theirs as an alliance between the opportunists, nay a nexus between past masters at plundering. The impression is that the PML-Q’s anti-corruption refrain is failing to have the desired effect on the population in Punjab, along with other things, amid people’s disillusionment with a government that has been plagued with crises just before the election.

Neither the PPP nor the PML-N has yet come up with nominees for the offices of prime minister and chief minister of Punjab, which is one sign amongst many others that the two parties are trying to stay clear of the potentially divisive issues for now. They are concentrating to get the better of the PML-Q first. Given the confrontation the two parties have had with the PML-Q in the recent past, they can be hardly faulted for wishing to settle a score with the king’s party.

“Faced with a common enemy, it is logical that they have moved closer to each other,” says Lahore-based political scientist Dr Rasul Bux Rais.

Restoration of democracy and the 1973 Constitution and prevention of future military intervention in politics, “these are the structural issues upon which a national consensus is developing,” he says.

Most people insist that the contours of the new relationship between the PPP and the PML-N would become clearer after the elections and not before that. The response of both PPP and PML-N leaders on the issue also points to this direction.

“We have made some seat adjustments with the PML-N in Karachi and Punjab. There will be no more cooperation before the formation of the new parliament,” PPP spokesman Farhatullah Khan Babar told Dawn on the phone.

“It is too early to say (whether we will support the PPP). Our options are open,” PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif says.

The media is abuzz with reports that Nawaz Sharif assured Asif Ali Zardari of the PML-N’s unconditional support to the PPP for formation of government in the centre after the elections when the two leaders met in Lahore on Feb 12. Officials of both the parties say what the PML-N means is that it would not ask for a share in the cabinet in return for its support to the PPP for forming government in Islamabad. But the PML-N leader does stand for reinstatement of judges deposed by President Musharraf when he clamped a state of emergency in the country on Nov 3, 2007.

Shahbaz denies Nawaz has given any such assurances to Asif. “I am not privy (to any such assurances or details),” he says.

While both the major political parties have agreement on matters like restoration of complete democracy and the 1973 Constitution, prevention of future military intervention in politics and launching a joint countrywide protest in case the elections were rigged, differences persist on certain other issues: PML-N’s demand for the reinstatement of the superior judiciary and impeachment of President Musharraf.

The PPP has so far been vague on both these counts. Though it talks about independence of the judiciary, it hasn’t taken any clear stance on the restoration of judges to the pre-emergency status. It is also not coming up with a clear stand on the issue of working with the president.

Dr Rais believes the PPP has been maintaining calculated ambiguity on these issues that are rather dearer to the PML-N. “The PPP is not willing to disclose its cards before the election,” he says.

Is the PML-N ready to show its hand before the elections? Its leadership too is keeping its future strategy close to the chest and waiting for the election results before binding its fate with that of the PPP’s in spite of its public overtures to the contrary.

There are political observers who firmly hold that the PML-N’s unusually strong stance against President Musharraf stems from the very fact that he is not prepared to tolerate its leadership at any cost and would do anything to keep the Sharifs’ out of power.

“The day the PML-N leaders got a hint that they could be accommodated, their current stand on the judges, Musharraf and every other issue would soften,” says an Islamabad-based political analyst, who does not want to be identified.

“If the PPP and the PML-N want to move forward to formation of a coalition, their leadership would have to address and resolve these issues,” he says. But he did not rule out “accommodation” by the two largest political parties of each other’s stance altogether.

“A coalition (government) of the two parties can be successful provided they buried the hatchet and understood the difficulties of running the country (at this moment). If this happens, it would augur well for both the country and democracy,” Dr Rais says.

Will the PPP and the PML-N pull off beyond the elections? The answer largely hinges on their respective performance in Monday’s vote.