COLOMBO: Sri Lanka’s hopes of a quick victory over Tamil separatists looked shattered on Thursday after Tamil rebels inflicted the heaviest losses on security forces since pulling out of a truce, analysts said.

The military leadership began 2007 by withdrawing from the 2002 ceasefire and vowing to crush the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in six months.

But diplomats and analysts underlined that Wednesday’s debacle in the north showed they seriously under-estimated the guerrillas, who have been fighting for a Tamil homeland since 1972.

“What we see is a culture of under-estimating the enemy,” said Iqbal Athas, a leading defence analyst on the island. “History is repeating. The military has not learnt from previous mistakes.” After driving the LTTE from the east last July after months of fighting, the government boasted it would replicate that success in the north.

Public euphoria at predictions of an imminent military victory boosted army recruitment, but despite unofficial censorship on bad news from the front, force numbers started to dwindle and desertions increased as the bloodshed dragged on.

Just a day before the major battle on the Jaffna peninsula where security sources estimated 127 soldiers were killed or missing and a further 400 wounded, the military announced an amnesty for deserters.

“The latest battle will have a lot of ramifications, not only on the economic front, but also on recruitment,” Athas said.

The setback is even more difficult for the military top brass, which had claimed that the Tigers had only 3,000 fighters at the start of the year.

Defence ministry figures claim to show that 3,125 Tigers have been killed already this year.

Analysts noted that the Tigers had withdrawn cadres and combatants from the east to reinforce the defences of their mini-state in the north and had not been routed as the army reported.

Despite opening three separate fronts in the north, the military had been unable to make a serious dent in rebel defences. Security forces deployed their maximum power with war planes, multi-barrel rockets and heavy armour.

“The government had raised the expectations of the people. They were made to believe that the war was being won,” said freelance defence analyst Namal Perera. “It has now become difficult to sustain that line.” Perera said civilians were paying a high price for the military campaign.Sri Lanka’s year-on-year inflation exceeded 28 per cent in March, the highest in 10 years.

“People were ready to make sacrifices. They were being told that the war was going well for the army. The latest casualties show that the Tigers are not as weak as the people were made to believe,” Perera said.

The government’s defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella played down the latest losses.

“This was not a debacle like in 1999 (when 10 army camps fell in five days),” said Rambukwella. “This is not a disaster. The government’s campaign to end terrorism by the end of the year will remain.” A retired army officer who declined to be named said the military was a victim of Tiger deception.

“They fell into a trap. This is not the first time,” the officer said, adding that the security forces had better fire power and more men, but the Tigers compensated by using better tactics.

He said the Tigers had also demonstrated that they still had the capability to carry out spectacular suicide attacks. Sri Lanka’s highways minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle was killed in a suicide bombing earlier this month.

The government has poured a record $1.5 billion into the war effort this year hoping for a quick end to a conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.

However, analysts say that the ferocious LTTE resistance showed there was no military option to solve the ethnic war.

Sri Lanka’s key international backers, including Japan, the United States, European Union and neighbouring India have repeatedly urged Colombo to resume negotiations with the Tigers. But the government has vowed no talks until the LTTE is wiped out.—AFP