May 05, 2008	Monday	Rabi-us-Sani 28, 1429

The United Nations has put Pakistan on the list of food-deficit country and it should serve as a grim warning to the policy makers.

Many local analysts had also been pointing out the imbalance between the rising population and the decreasing food availability. The warning from the United Nations has only reinforced the previous observations about food insecurity.

From around 42 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP), agriculture’s contribution has dropped to just under 21 per cent over the last two decades – exactly 50 per cent of what it used to be.

While other sectors have expanded their share in the GDP, the contribution of agriculture has shrunk exceptionally. The sector which has grown even at 7.5 per cent annually in the past, has now come down to a paltry 2.5 per cent – even less than annual population growth.

The declining agriculture growth has a significant impact on the economy due to its all-pervasive role—63 to 69 per cent of the export is agriculture-driven.. The rising import bill of the food group also shows the pathetic condition of agriculture. The food import bill which stood at Rs50 billion in 2003, is expected to rise to a staggering Rs180 billion. The sheer enormity of the volume should be an eye opener for the policy planners.

A crop-wise look at the production figures reveals the causes behind the food poverty. The country produces four sets of crops i.e. cash crop, food crops, pulses and edible oil. The food crops include wheat, rice, jowar, maize, bajra and barley. The country produced 28.38 million tons of them in year 1999-00. In the year 2007. It needed about 33 to 34 million tons of these food crops and the actual production stood at 30.39 million tons.

Similarly, the cash crops – cotton, rice, sugarcane, tobacco and jute – have witnessed a drop in production. In year 1999-00, Pakistan produced 57.05 million tons of these crops. In 2006, the production has gone down to 47.18 million tons – a drop of 10 million tons.

Production of pulses is also a repetition of cash crops story. In the year 1999-00, the country produced around one million tons of them, which, in 2006, had gone down to 685,000 tons. Edible oil crops have seen a slight, but grossly insufficient, increase in production. From 4.4 million tons in 1999-00, they have gone up to five million tons in 2006.

Individual crop production figures only help clarify the bigger food crisis. Rice production, which stood at 2,050 kg per hectares in year 1991-92, has gone up by only 50Kg per hectares in the last 17 years. Wheat production has actually dropped during the last seven years – from 2,667Kg per hectares in 99-00 to 2,588 kg per hectares in 2006. Cotton also suffered the same fate with 769 kg per hectares in 1991-92 to 711 kg per hectares in 2006.

All these figures reflect Pakistan’s poverty and food insecurity. In fact, the decision-makers have failed to take needed steps to develop agriculture.

Agriculture research remains in a dismal state. Wheat seed, which over 90 per cent farmers currently use, was introduced way back in 1992. Since then, it has grown susceptible to every kind of disease and fungus.

Similarly, rice seed, Super, was introduced in 1994 and has lost its vitality as happens with all kinds of seeds. The government has failed to upgrade seeds. To compound the misfortune of the farm sector, wherever the research has been able to make some breakthrough like sugar cane, the extension has failed to take it to the farmers.

As they say that agriculture is possible without soil, but not without water. The building of water reservoir represents the stupendous failure. From 5,500 metre per capita availability at the time of partition, it has dropped to 1,100 meters per person, with figure of 1,000 being the red line. At present, even if both dams are filled, which is becoming a rarity, the farmers face 22 per cent water shortage. One must not forget that over 97 per cent water from these dams is used for agriculture. Since the commissioning of Tarbella Dam, the water planners, as per their own agreement, (adding seven per cent capacity), should have built dams for at least 25 million acre feet. They have not provided even one per cent of that figure.