BEIRUT: The opening of diplomatic relations between Syria and Lebanon is a major strategic shift, but analysts say it remains to be seen whether Damascus’s influence over its smaller neighbour has really ended.

The move, announced by French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Saturday after a meeting with his Syrian and Lebanese counterparts, comes more than three years after Damascus ended a near three-decade military domination of Lebanon.

Carnegie Middle East Centre director Paul Salem said the establishment of ties comes within a broader change in Syrian policy to try to end several years of isolation on the international scene.

“Talking with Israel, a better policy toward Lebanon and opening to France, is a rather serious shift (in Syrian policy),” said Carnegie Middle East Centre director Paul Salem.

“(The opening of diplomatic relations) does not ultimately prove anything but it is a step in the right direction,” he said, adding that some in Syria “are realising that their 30-year occupation of Lebanon did not actually give them very much.” Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2005 after the assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri but it still wields considerable political clout through its allies in Beirut.

Damascus was widely blamed for the murder but staunchly denies any involvement and has been at loggerheads with the Beirut government over plans for an international tribunal to try suspects.

The international community also accused Syria of meddling in Lebanon’s domestic affairs and blamed it for a protracted political crisis that almost boiled over into all-out civil war in May after factional fighting killed 65 people.

But on Friday, a new unity government was finally announced, in line with a power-sharing accord hammered out in Doha in May, after weeks of bickering between the pro-western ruling majority and the Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition over cabinet posts.

“Syrian support for the Doha agreement...gives the lie to claims that Damascus was impeding a solution in Lebanon,” said the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan, which is considered close to the government.

On Sunday, Assad announced he would be inviting Lebanon’s new President Michel Sleiman to Syria, although no dates has yet been fixed.

“This is a very very important step, regardless of what changes on the ground,” Rosanna Bou Monsef, a political analyst for the pro-government newspaper An-Nahar, said of the establishment of ties.

“It is a symbolic gesture... If you assume that they recognise Lebanon’s independence, then this cements that recognition.” Wael Bou Faour, a minister of state in Lebanon’s new cabinet, dismissed the announcement of diplomatic relations and questioned whether the opening of embassies would actually take place.

“Nothing has changed,” the anti-Syrian MP said. “This step is a measure that only seeks to break the Damascus regime’s isolation and open the door to negotiations over the international tribunal.” And he warned that without real recognition of Lebanese sovereignty by Syria, its embassy would become nothing more than an ‘intelligence bureau’. And Salem too, cautioned that: “Having an embassy doesn’t mean they won’t intervene... The US has an embassy in Iraq and it occupies Iraq.” Salem said he believed Syria’s policy shift stemmed from international pressure as well as a desire to improve the country’s stagnant economy and to gain international stature.—AFP