IF Pakistan misses its cotton production target of 14.12 million bales this year, it would be fourth such year in a row. Unfortunately, initial reports are not positive.

The target of 14.12 million bales — virtually is not possible if farmers and cotton trade are to be believed. Last year around 12.3 million bales were produced. So, the yield has to take a leap of 13 per cent if the target is to be met.

The area under cultivation has dropped by almost 15 per cent. It means the loss in acreage would have to be covered through increase in yield. Thus, the yield has to go up by a whooping 28 per cent to recover the drop in production last year and the acreage this year.

Most farmers and traders believe the national output would not cross the figure of 12.5 million bales. Should that happen, 2.5 to three million bales would have to be imported at a cost of $500 to $600 million to feed the textile industry. Edible oil production would also suffer and consequently import bill would increase; pressure would also be exerted on livestock feed (oil cake) that entirely comes from cotton.

Farmers and industrialists base their estimates on ground realities. They think that water scarcity at the time of sowing, absence of support (indicative) price, reduction in area sown, critical drop in usage of fertiliser and up to 50 per cent sowing of bacillus thuringiensis (BT) cotton of unknown origin and health have made the yield a question mark.

Short supply and over pricing of pesticides would only make the situation worse together with the poor agronomic practices. Put together, all these factors would make 14.12 million bales’ target practically impossible.

To begin with, the government’s habit of fixing fake targets has drawn sharp criticism from farmers and industrialists. They think that the government tries to get political mileage out of these targets by temporarily painting rosy picture of agriculture sector. Once the country misses these targets, the government explains technical reasons behind the failure and gets busy setting new targets for the next year.

The government has never bothered to document reasons behind failures to achieve targets, not even reasons of success when it actually achieved the targets. When targets are missed, the government machinery gets busy explaining reasons, real or hypothetical, instead of learning lessons from it.

Precisely for this reason, no one knows why Pakistan at one stage was getting a yield of 26 maunds per acre and why productivity has now dropped to a paltry 20 maunds.

The official concern for the crop, which covers the largest area after wheat and contributes to 68 per cent of country’s export, could be gauged from the fact that almost 50 per cent of the seed sown is uncertified.

The government is least bothered to know from where the farmers get the seed, and how should it move to check the quality of the seed being sold in the name of BT cotton, especially when this crop has been suffering on this account for the last three years.

Fortunately, incessant rains in some parts of the country have washed away some pests, especially mealy bug that caused havoc last year. But, it has returned in some areas where availability of pesticides has become a problem. Prices of pesticides have gone up by 30 per cent and the farmers would be buying the same quantity of pesticides for around Rs28 billion, which they bought for Rs15 billion last year. Thus the usage of pesticides is all set to drop drastically.

The usage of fertilisers has already dropped by almost 93 per cent – some 73 per cent in diammonium phosphate (DAP) and over 20 per cent in case of urea. The farmers stopped purchase of DAP because of price factor and urea is simply not available because of hoarding. The agriculturalists say that usage of urea after August 31 is useless for cotton.

Without these two fertilisers, the crop is bound to suffer on both counts – vegetative growth and resistance against pest attack. Combine this drop of fertiliser and vulnerability of crop due to pesticide shortage and its spiraling cost, dangers to cotton crop become more evident.

With the dubious quality seed and drop in fertiliser use are bound to reduce the per acre yield.

The cotton crop at present faces management problems, which the government could have dealt with a little bit of extra effort. For example, it is the government’s duty to ensure that farmers get certified seeds on time.

It is only the government that can ensure timely availability of fertilisers and pesticides at an affordable price as the federal government allows imports and regulates their inland trade. With government failing to create enabling environment for the crop, no wonder everyone with stakes in cotton is keeping his fingers crossed.

Opinion

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