China trade surplus hits record high

Published September 11, 2008

BEIJING, Sept 10: Inflation in China fell for a fourth straight month in August while the trade surplus hit a record high, data said on Wednesday, with analysts blaming weakening domestic demand.

The figures have pushed the case for Beijing to boost growth, economists said, following months of efforts by policymakers to slow down the world’s fourth largest economy and rein in inflation.

“The policy priority has already changed. More concerns are probably on growth now,” said Huang Yiping, a Hong Kong-based economist with Citigroup.

“The government will probably continue to relax some of its policies in the short term,” he said, citing possible measures such as tax cuts and loosening credit controls.

The data showed the year-on-year increase in the consumer price index dropped to 4.9 per cent in August, the fourth consecutive month of slowing inflation, which is far below February’s near 12-year high of 8.7 per cent.

The news came as it was also announced that the trade surplus for last month hit an all-time high of $28.7 billion -- beating its record of $27.1 billion in October last year.

Growth slowed to 10.1 per cent in the second quarter of this year against a backdrop of cooling global expansion. The economy expanded by 11.9 per cent in the whole of 2007.

And Wednesday’s data suggested the third quarter could see that trend continue.

“The overall slowdown of the Chinese economy has become a trend,” said Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

“The downturn (in the consumer price index) might reverse in the future, but the possibility is slim,” he was quoted as saying.

Food prices, the main driver of inflation since last year, were up 10.3 per cent in August from a year earlier. In July, food inflation had been 14.4 per cent.

This could partly be reflected in better food supply, but Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based economist with Standard Chartered, said in a research note that “we see a wealth of evidence” that consumption growth had indeed slowed.

The evidence included sluggish car sales, falling revenues at major electronics retailers and weakening enthusiasm for buying homes, he said.

Less vibrant domestic demand was also seen as a main factor behind the massive trade surplus.

The August surplus was caused by an abrupt slowdown in imports rather than any particular pickup in exports, observers argued.

“Import growth declined rather steeply while exports posted just normal growth,” said Feng Yuming, a Shanghai-based economist with Oriental Securities.

China’s exports last month increased 21.1 per cent from a year earlier to $134.9 billion, according to customs data. In July, exports had increased 26.9 per cent.—AFP

Opinion

Editorial

Solidarity with Palestine
Updated 29 Nov, 2024

Solidarity with Palestine

The wretched of the earth see in the Palestinian struggle against Israel a mirror of themselves.
Little relief for public
29 Nov, 2024

Little relief for public

INFLATION, the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services over a given period of time, has receded...
Right to education
29 Nov, 2024

Right to education

IT is troubling to learn that over 16,500 students of the University of Karachi (KU) have defaulted on fee payments...
A hasty retreat
Updated 28 Nov, 2024

A hasty retreat

Govt should not extend its campaign of violence against PTI and its leaders, thinking it now has the upper hand. Enough is enough.
Lebanon truce
28 Nov, 2024

Lebanon truce

WILL it hold? That is the question many in the Middle East and beyond will be asking after a 60-day ceasefire ...
MDR anomaly removed
28 Nov, 2024

MDR anomaly removed

THE State Bank’s decision to remove its minimum deposit rate requirement for conventional banks on deposits from...