IN his maiden press conference, newly-elected President Asif Ali Zardari pledged to increase food supply and tackle the price spiral “through massive production.”

Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif also lost no time and the very next day fixed wheat production target of 20 million tons for his province.

Both the gentlemen did not divulge how they were going to face the adverse ground realities and achieve these dream targets.

Almost all crucial factors of wheat production are in negative, at least at present. A critical challenge in achieving the official wheat production target will be the availability of water.

Water levels in both the dams of the country have already started depleting, even before they could be filled. The Mangla Dam has touched a level 1,200 feet — two feet below the maximum level and is emptying fast. On September 9, the lake had dropped to 1,198 feet level. So was the case with Tarbella Dam, which has seen a drop of 13 feet in the five days ending Sept 9.

Both Sindh and Punjab are drawing heavily to save their standing crops (cotton and rice) at the risk of Rabi crop--wheat. While it is too early to predict water shortage during the coming Rabi season with any certainty, experts feel that deficit may range between a staggering 35 - 40 per cent.

What plans the government has to deal with this crucial factor, nobody really knows. The alternative is pumping water out of the soil. It is not economically feasible after the current 30 to 50 per cent raise in power charges and government’s refusal to bring diesel prices down, which powers over 80 per cent of tube wells. With water shortage, how the federal and provincial governments plan to bring about 25 per cent increase in yield cannot be fathomed.

The second crucial factor is the support price, which determines the financial viability of the crop. The government has still not announced its procurement price, though sowing is about to start in certain parts of Sindh. In the next 10 weeks, sowing should be completed in the entire country.

An increased wheat price would put the government in a Catch-22 situation. Any increase in price at this stage would work as an incentive for hoarders to stock wheat; even purchase it from official sources and hoard it. But if it does not announce the raise on time, farmers would be reluctant to sow wheat and miss the acreage and production target.

The government has been facing this dilemma for the last many years, but has not been able to be innovative about it. Every year, it delays announcement of new price and suffers on targets, leading to supply and price crises — and this year does not seem to be an exception.

The third crucial factor for wheat yield is the availability of fertiliser. The farmers have been protesting against its short supply and price surge. The availability of both urea and DAP at an affordable price has assumed a serious proportion. The urea, a major part of which is produced locally, has disappeared at the most crucial stage. The farmers simply cannot afford DAP at its current price of Rs3,500 per bag. It is beyond their purchasing power and makes no commercial sense to apply it to crops at its current price, if farmers are to be believed.

The entire supply sector has been hijacked by hoarders and stockists. They have rendered the entire official machinery ineffective. How the current set-up plans to be effective in the next two months remains to be seen.

Beyond some short-term steps to manage the crises, the research wing of the agriculture departments has not been able to come up with any high-yielding variety. For the last 15 years, the country is depending on a variety that has lost its vigour and is now vulnerable to various diseases.

The farmers are not trained in modern methods of sowing and harvesting, and no one is ready to train them either. Farm mechanisation is almost non-existent and the formal sector only caters to 30 per cent of credit requirements of the agriculturists.

In order to stem first the rot and then reverse the situation, the government needs a long- and short-term sound planning and scrupulous execution. Rhetoric will not do.