ISLAMABAD, Sept 17: Pakistan’s cotton output in the 2008-09 is likely to be less than 12 million bales, falling short of a target of 14.1 million, officials and producers said on Wednesday, increasing the need for imports.

Pakistan, the world’s fourth-largest cotton producer, had to import nearly 4.7 million bales the previous year after production in 2007-08 fell to 11.6 million bales against a target of 14.14 million.

A fall in the area under cotton, pest attacks and shortage of fertiliser were the major factors that hit production in the 2008-09 crop year, which runs from April to March.

“It will be a big achievement even if we touch the 12 million bales mark,” said Ibrahim Mughal, chairman of the Agri-Forum, a farmers’ association.

“The area under cultivation is almost 500,000 acres less than the target area of 8 million acres, and there have also been pest attacks like mealy bug and cotton leaf curl virus.”

A spokesman for the Food and Agriculture Ministry confirmed that the target of 14.1 million bales was out of the question but did not give a new estimate. Another ministry official said it would be below 12 million bales.

Ministry officials and farmers’ representatives are likely to meet in a few weeks to reach an estimate for the new crop.

The final assessment is usually made around February.

Pakistan’s domestic consumption fluctuates between 14 million and 16 million bales a year. Cotton and textiles account for about 60 per cent of the country’s exports.

Pakistan achieved record cotton production of 14.6 million bales in 2004-05, but output has been falling since then, meaning the country has to import cotton every year to meet the requirements of its textile mills.

Cotton imports in July and August, the first two months of the financial year to June 2009, were 300,000 bales, an industry official said.

Farmers’ forum chairman Mughal said rising production costs, because of higher prices of power, fuel and fertiliser, were discouraging farmers from growing more.

“There are simply no incentives for farmers, no profits.”

—Reuters