THE good news is that both farmers and officials are reporting a better cotton crop than that of last year despite a wide spread pest attack in some areas in Punjab and shortages of urea fertiliser and insecticides.

The bad news is that we are going to miss the cotton production target of 14.11 million bales (155kg each) for the year 2008-09, for the fourth year in a row, in spite of a better plant population and growth of greater number of bolls.

“The general crop condition is much better than last year’s. Yet we will not achieve the output target for the year,” Dr Qadir Bux Baloch, Agriculture Development Commissioner (ADC) at the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, told Dawn. But he refused to project the expected crop size before the end of September. “I don’t want to make any conjecture at this time,” he said.

The farmers, however, said the size of the crop could be around 12 million bales, up by about 650,000 bales from last year’s 11.35 million bales (of 170kg each) but short by above two million bales of the target for the current year.

Growers and officials cite numerous factors – starting from shortfall in the sowing target to shortages of canal water to pest attack to unavailability of certified seed, etc. – responsible for the smaller crop size.

A recent paper prepared by Dr Baloch’s office on cotton situation 2008-09 says 2.969 million hectares could be brought under cultivation this year, which is 10 per cent less than the target of 3.2 million hectares and six per cent from the area brought under cultivation last year, because of the growers inclination towards alternative crops like rice and sunflower.

The paper underscores that the global cotton production is feared to decline by just below six per cent this year to 113.6 million bales from 120.5 million bales last year due to increased competition from alternative crops and one per cent drop in farm yield to 779kg per hectare from record of 787kg last year.

On top of that, the paper said, higher incidence of white fly and mealy bug attack was reported from Punjab. Moreover, Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLVC) was also noticed in some Punjab districts – Multan, Vehari, Bahawalpur, Lodhran, Khanewal and Muzaffargarh. Sindh crop is reported to be largely safe from insect attack. Yet, it said: “Average plant population and number of bolls (this year) is more than those of last year”.“

We could have achieved a much larger crop if the government had ensured availability of urea and pesticides in the market when it was needed by the farmers,” Agri-Forum Pakistan chairman, Ibrahim Mughal, said. He said the traders had hoarded insecticides and urea to create artificial shortages for pushing their prices to new highs and rig profits.

“The prices did not go up due to short supply of fertiliser and insecticides. That happened owing to the failure of the government to regulate the market effectively and prevent hoarding of chemicals. It is a simple case of lack of governance,” Mr Mughal said. He said the farmers had used seven million fewer bags of urea than last year’s 16 million bags due to non-availability of fertiliser or its higher prices that have spiked to Rs1,000 a bag from Rs600 at the start of the kharif season.

Punjab Agriculture (Extension) Director-General Mohammad Anjum Ali argued that the effect of urea and canal water shortages were offset by “good rains this year”. “It is safe to assume that urea shortage could not cause much harm to the crop size because of better rains. The early cotton arrivals from Punjab – an estimated 250,000 to 300,000 bales have already hit the market – testify to that,” he said. He added: “The crop would perform even better if normal, favourable weather conditions continue to exist and pest attack doesn’t get severe.”

The smaller domestic crop than expected means that the textile industry’s dependence on imported fibre would rise. The short crop size last year compelled the industry – which consumes 15.5 million to 16 million bales a year – to spend $1.291 billion to import 4.6 million bales (170kg each) during August 07-July 08 to meet its requirements.

The dollar value of cotton imported during 2007-08 rose by $729 million from the previous year’s $562 million. “This year too we will need to spend around $1 billion to import cotton to cover the deficit at a time when we desperately need to plug the leakage of our foreign exchange reserves,” said Mr Mughal.

Unofficial reports suggest that the growers had sown unapproved varieties of BT cotton on at least 40 to 50 per cent of area in Punjab. The percentage of BT cotton sown for Sindh is said to be even bigger than that.

“Most farmers – up to 40 per cent – prefer BT cotton because it requires fewer sprays than our traditional varieties. In addition, it is resistant to most pest infestation though not to CLVC attack,” said progressive farmer from South Punjab, Maqbool Khan Khichi.

He acknowledged that the unapproved BT cotton varieties being used by farmers produced inferior quality fibre – shorter in length and weaker in strength. “But the growers love these varieties because these reduce their input costs, and give better yield if sown early,” he argued.

Ijaz Ahmed Rao, another progressive farmer from Bahawalpur, said BT cotton could help to the extent of protecting your crops from certain pests and, thus, increasing yield.”

He said more than 39 BT cotton versions were available in the local market. “Unapproved varieties may harm the crop because we don’t know about their behaviour.” Quoting an official survey report of the National Agriculture Research Centre (NARC) – Status of cotton harbouring BT-gene in Pakistan, he said BT transgenic crop was being widely grown in cotton growing areas of Sindh and Punjab. “In Sindh it was observed that almost 80 per cent of the cotton growing area in Sindh had been brought under unapproved BT cotton. In Punjab almost 50 per cent area has been occupied by unapproved BT cotton. The use of unapproved varieties can cause a huge damage in the years to come.”