TO achieve the wheat production target of 25 million tons for the forthcoming wheat crop would certainly be an uphill task for the government due to precarious state of supply of inputs and water deficit in the range of 35 to 40 per cent for the Rabi season.

The target is the highest-ever in the country’s history. So far, wheat production has peaked at 23.5 million tons for a single season. Therefore, the new target would be an acid test for the government.

The reasons behind such a mounting wheat production target are obvious. Wheat flour is not easily available in the market and its price has been all-time high. The situation is worse in bigger cities. Huge wheat imports help meet domestic needs. Such an uncertain situation has forced the government to make efforts to increase wheat output and ensure food security.

However, to realise the target, a two pronged strategy has been adopted. First, efforts are being made to enhance crop area. The government has set 2.2 million acres target for cultivation of wheat.

The wheat support price has been fixed at Rs950 per 40 kg. It would definitely encourage the farmers to grow wheat on more area. The growers would be discouraged to grow crops competing with wheat, like maize and sugarcane.

Second, the government is trying to increase wheat yield per unit area. Wheat yield could be increased by timely sowing, using certified/healthy seed, incorporating fertilisers in balanced amounts, supplying irrigation on critical growth stages and controlling weeds by spraying weedicides. The import of urea from Saudi Arabia to overcome fertiliser shortfall has also been welcomed by farmers.

The Punjab government has launched scheme for providing tractors and agricultural implements to farmers at subsidised rates. Importantly, the Punjab is the major producer and supplier of wheat to other provinces. Certainly, such a well-directed step would encourage mechanised farming that would facilitate farmers to cultivate crop at appropriate time and also to maximise yield due to efficient use of resources and better cultural practices.

Last but not the least, the Zarai Taraqqiati Bank (ZTB) has been disbursing loans to farmers liberally following the directives of the government to increase their ability to purchase inputs and agricultural equipment. So the bank has disbursed Rs67 billion in production loans to farmers across the country.

However, are the arrangements made so far by the government to increase acreage as well as yield per unit area are sufficient to be appreciated? Certainly not in view of the facts discussed below.

Wheat crop requires at least four watering at different growth stages. In terms of delta of water, wheat crop needs 26 to 28 acre inches. Given this depth of water, around 50 million acre feet of water would be required for successful raising of wheat crop over 2.2 million acres. But the reality is different keeping in view the water supply situation from the river system. The river system provides around 30 million acre feet if there is no shortage. But with 35 to 40 per cent projected shortage, the system supply would drop to 18 million acre.

To add to this, tube wells pumped out around 40 million acre feet yearly-20 million acre feet in Kharif and roughly the same quantity in Rabi. Even if a 20 million acre foot is added to 18 million acre feet from rivers and dams, there would be still shortage of 1.2 million acre feet.

How much acreage would be affected by this 24 per cent water shortage is a question difficult to answer at this point in time. But the thing that needs illustration here is that this 24 per cent shortage would surely be a make or break factor for the crop target. The shortage of 1.2 million acre feet poses a big challenge to the plans of the government about the acreage.

The precarious fertiliser availability situation offers more insight about fears of potential failure to achieve acreage. Urea is abundantly used at the time of sowing. The country would need 2.5 million tons of urea during the coming season but it would not have more than one million tons. There would be a deficit of 1.5 million tons or 60 per cent. The requirement of phosphate fertiliser for Rabi season is around 1.1 million tons and the current availability is only 400,000 tons.

Again there would be a deficit of 60 per cent. Even recent import of 55,000 tons of urea would hardly cover 500,000 acres. However, hoarding of fertilisers is a norm of the day. Only selected farmers having political clout succeed to get fertilisers.

The prices of inputs are so high that majority of the farmers, the small farmers in particular, cannot not afford to apply the requisite amount. Given the high cost and availability risk of other inputs, usage of other inputs like weedicides also goes low on farmers’ priority list. Weeds are inimical to plant growth and development and require timely eradication.

The market system is not perfect meaning that all farmers do not have access to information regarding market. No bargain is completed without the involvement of middlemen. In a perfect market, the whole profit goes to the producer. A considerable portion of the profit is taken away by the middlemen.

The government needs to improve water supply at critical growth stages that include tillering, stem elongation, flowering and seed formation. Equally, the farmers are required to follow recommended method of irrigation application and also at a growth stage when the crop really needs it to optimise the use of scare water resources. Solar energy may be used to operate tube- wells in the backdrop of considerable power breakdown.

The availability of DAP requires to be ensured. It is not urea but DAP that is needed at the time of sowing. It is essential to overcome shortfall by importing DAP. The hoarders of DAP should be punished. All-out efforts should be directed to ensure uniform supply of fertilisers at the time of sowing as well as during growth.

The government should offer weedicides at cheaper rates because benefits are numerous in terms of increased yield and fiscal benefit for national exchequer. The imperfections in the marketing system require to be removed to enable the producer to get a fair price for his produce, essential to improve his economic and social standing.