KARACHI, Jan 21: A détente between India and Pakistan provides a solution to the confrontation between the two countries and, therefore, diplomacy alone is the best way to resolving outstanding disputes between New Delhi and Islamabad while avoiding a catastrophic war, according to former ambassador Mansoor Alam.

Mr Alam was speaking on the “Implications of the Mumbai attacks on India-Pakistan relations” at a programme organised by the International Relations department of Karachi University on Tuesday.

“Diplomacy is the best available option for resolving all the disputes and challenges that confront the two nations,” he said, ruling out the “possibility of any immediate war between India and Pakistan because wars of today are not limited wars and no country can afford to have complete annihilation of everything that sustains life.”

He also noted that although the newly-elected government in Pakistan made a big push towards normalisation of relations with India throughout 2008, the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, led to tension, a war of words and the threat of a fourth war between the two countries.

As a consequence of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, bilateral relations had touched a new low and in the short term (6 to 12 months) there would be no escape from hostile propaganda, he said, adding that there would be reduction in trade, travel and people-to-people contact.

“In a way,” he said, “this incident has resulted in the end of composite dialogue and confidence-building measures between the two countries due to the persistent danger of an Indian attack.”

In the mid-term (12 to 24 months), he said, other countries, particularly the US, could begin to cause a thaw in relations. “If Pakistan and India cooperate on investigating the culprits of the Mumbai attack seriously, and Pakistan shuts down organisations like Lashker-e-Tayyaba (LeT) and Jamaat-u-Dawa (JUD), relations could begin to return to pre-Mumbai days. During this medium term phase, the new US administration under President Barack Obama can be expected to play a more active role in improvement of Indo-Pakistan relations,” he said.

In the long term, Mr Alam also referred to the possibility of full normalisation of relations between Pakistan and India, and mutual realisation that war offers no solution to disputes between them. He also said that in the long term, trade and travel across the Line of Control would increase.

“But if Pakistan-based terrorist organisations mount another attack on India, it will definitely lead to India’s retaliation in one form or the other, short of a full-scale attack which would lead to a nuclear confrontation, at which point the international community (led by the USA) will intervene very strongly to stop it,” he said.

He added that the current tension between the two countries has a history, where both states had tried to use coercive means to achieve their interests. “Muslims everywhere in general and in Pakistan in particular must apply logic to understand the true teachings of Islam. Education is the only panacea to all their problems,” he said.

Ambassador Alam’s presentation was focused on the historical evolution of India-Pakistan relations. He was of the view that “military solutions to political problems will not do anymore.”