WASHINGTON, Aug 23: A stable Pakistan that can extend its full writ throughout the land and prevent its various regions from becoming ungoverned areas is of direct national security importance for the United States, says a report prepared for the US Congress and released on Monday.

The report, prepared by the Congressional Research Service and distributed by the US State Department, also stresses the fear that regions now under Islamabad's control can turn into operational bases for anti-American terrorists if allowed to become ungoverned.

“Pakistan is of great interest to the national security of the United States,” the report notes. “US interests are primarily focused on Pakistan's ability to control its territory to prevent it from being used as a haven for anti-American terrorists and prevent inter-state conflict with India that would be regionally destabilising or worse, given their nuclear weapons.”

The report, which focuses on the political and strategic fallout of environmental changes in Pakistan, urges US policy-makers also to consider the potential negative impact that environmental stress, particularly water shortages and its impact on food security, may have as a threat multiplier.

“There is a potential need to prevent these exacerbating environmental factors from becoming the tipping point leading to a more chaotic situation in Pakistan,” the report warns.

The report quotes a US official source as saying that because water shortages present the greatest future threat to the viability of Pakistan, US development assistance would be best focused on the improvement of Pakistan's water infrastructure.The report examines the potentially destabilising effect that, when combined with Pakistan's demographic trends and limited economic development, water scarcity, limited arable land, and food security may have on an already radicalised internal and destabilised international political security environment.

The report considers the especially important hypothesis that the combination of these factors could contribute to Pakistan's decline as a fully functioning state, creating new, or expanding existing, largely ungoverned areas.

“The creation, or expansion, of ungoverned areas, or areas of limited control by the government of Pakistan, is viewed as not in US strategic interests given the recent history of such areas being used by the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups as a base for operations against US interests in the region,” the report warns.

In this sense, environmental stress is viewed as a potential “threat multiplier” to existing sources of conflict.

The report warns that environmental factors could also expand the ranks of the dispossessed in Pakistan, which could lead to greater recruitment for radical Muslim groups operating in Pakistan or Afghanistan.

The report also warns that larger numbers of dispossessed people in Pakistan could also destabilise the current political regime. This could add pressure on the Pakistani political system and possibly add impetus to a return to military rule or a more bellicose posture towards India.

The potential for environmental factors to stoke conflict between the nuclear armed states of India and Pakistan is also a concern.

The report notes that a longstanding dispute over cross-border water resource sharing between India and Pakistan has resurfaced, possibly exacerbating existing tensions between the two states.

“Should the two countries wish, however, this dispute also offers a renewed opportunity for cooperation, as has been seen in past negotiations.”