Contrary to the government's move to win PML-Q over, the party could almost be gobbled up by the PML-N by the next elections if predictions of the opposition leader in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, prove to be correct.

He rules out the PML-Q leadership's being able to take the country's second largest opposition party in parliament on the side of the PPP-led coalition government to confront the large PML(N)-led opposition with a bleak winter by shrinking its size.

And in an interview with Dawn, he said his party would welcome up to 85 per cent of PML-Q legislators into its fold before the next elections so they could contest on its ticket but there would be no room for the Chaudhry Brothers and others who had been too vicious against the PML-N leadership during nine years of former military president Pervez Musharraf.

But despite holding the view that the ruling coalition had lost all moral authority to govern, he said his party would not demand mid-term elections due to the country's security situation and also would not be able to manage a stable government in the event of any “in-house change” with fewer (92) members than the PPP's 125.

The opposition leader vowed the PML-N would oppose the General Sales Tax Bill in the lower house “tooth and nail” unless it were amended to accommodate his party's demands and saw little hope of a new accountability law coming before the house in its next session next month because of government's unwillingness to accommodate some objections of his party.

Asked about the opposition's future if the PML-Q, with 54 members in the 342-seat National Assembly and 21 in the 100-seat Senate, decide to join hands with the PPP, Chaudhry Nisar said: “I think if there is to be a bleak winter, it is going to be for the government, faced with a host of problems. And I see that bleak winter stretching out to a very hot summer. If the situation is getting worse, it is for the government, and not for the opposition.”

Over the last few weeks, he said, there had been “a lot of destabilization” in government ranks and its coalition partners rather than in the opposition and that it would be “foolhardy” for any opposition party to board a “sinking ship” at the risk of being “drowned in the process”.

He foresaw increasing desertions from PML-Q's ranks in the future “unless it joins the government or has some tacit support of the government” and said one view was by next elections the party would be faced with a dearth of candidates to contest for the assemblies.

So, according to him, it is to “retain that faltering strength” that the PML-Q leadership wanted some kind of relationship or understanding with the government. But he said the rank of file – “and I say it with some authority because most of these people are in touch with us” -- felt that joining the government at this stage would be “like committing a suicide”.

Chaudhry Nisar said the PML-Q leadership would have to pay “a very heavy price both publicly and within their party ranks” if they supported the government on the GST bill in the lower house by going back on their earlier strong statements against what he called the “very unpopular” legislation.

Asked whether his party should take an initiative to reunite both the League factions, except for hardliners, the PML-N leader said the process had already started both in and outside parliament with various PML-Q senators and MNAs meeting “our party leadership” and added: “You will see over the next few weeks or over the next few months that the PML-N will open its doors to a lot of parliamentarians and other politicians who we feel have not really stabbed us in the back during the Musharraf rule, who have not been vicious against our leadership and PML-N as a party and against whom there is no serious misgiving in our party ranks.” He said he could say off-hand that “almost 80 to 85 per cent of the present PML-Q MPs – whether they are in the provincial assemblies or in the National Assembly – could come in this package.”

But in view of the legal ban on floor-crossing by parliamentarians, he said his party was not in the game of winning over MNAs from other parties. “If we were in that state of mind I can tell you very categorically … there are at the moment not only a substantial number of PML-Q members who want to join PML-N, or have an understanding with PML-N, there are also MNAs from the People's Party who have made overtures -- well in fact who have met us -- and want a commitment for the award of ticket in the next elections.” But he said: “To all of them our reaction has been that as for as this parliament is concerned it would not be fair, it would not be in line with the constitution, as limitations are imposed on elected representatives, for them to dump their party and join PML-N. But they are in touch with us, they are working closely with us, they will remain within their party, and that understanding will only be made public come the next elections.”

In reply to a question, he said: “The understanding is that as far as the tenure of this parliament is concerned, they will remain within their parties, but understanding with quite a few parliamentarians has been reached that come the next elections, they will contest elections from our party platform.”

Asked if PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and the party's Punjab president Chaudhry Pervez Elahi will ever be accepted in the PML-N, Ch Nisar cited what he called sentiment within the party against any such move. GST STANCE:

The opposition leader said the PML-N had a “very clear and categorical stance” that in its present scope and in its present shape, the GST bill was “totally unacceptable for a variety of reasons”.

He said if the government had taken all political parties on board at the proper time of its negotiations with the IMF, “we would have been able to give our input to try to streamline the procedure under which this taxation proposal was to be put before parliament.

Asked if the opposition could block the bill, he said while every PML-N member would oppose it, with support from PML-Q's 54 and MQM's 25 along with a couple of independents and other groups and with expected abstensions, it would be “next to impossible for the government” to get it through.

He agreed with the need to increase the falling tax-GDP – one of the main aims cited by the government – but said: “We feel that all these proposals must be seen in the light of their impact on inflation, in the light of the impact it will have on the day-to-day lives of the common man, of the salaried class, and generally on the sluggish pace of the economy as it exists today.”

Asked about any possibility of change of government by an in-house parliamentary vote, he said: “I think the main reason for why we are not taking a proactive stance (in that direction) is the numbers' game. We feel very strongly that if PPP with 125 members could not really manage a political government or run a political government on a sound basis, how can a party which has 92 members manage that coalition? Secondly, as of now we are not demanding mid-term elections, but if through force of circumstances it is forced upon us, we are not going to oppose it, nobody is going to oppose it. Now you don't close options, we don't close the options for democratic change, and that is the position to which PML-N subscribes. But if we proactively start trying to create conditions for a change, … we will be blamed immediately for trying to bring back the era of late '80s and early '90s.”

He further said: “I can tell you if the conditions in Balochistan and particularly in Fata, and particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were not so bad, I can tell you Charter of Democracy or no Charter of Democracy, we would be the first one to demand elections, and if elections are not forthcoming, to carry out public mobilization.”

He said: “The biggest impediment to our demanding mid-term elections is the security situation in the country and not any love lost for the government. We genuinely feel that this government somehow has lost all moral authority to remain in power. It is totally dismissive of public opinion.”

Asked if he hoped the proposed new Accountability Bill would come before the next National Assembly session, he said: “I am very pessimistic, for the simple reason that for the last one and half years there have been no less than six commitments made by the prime minister on the floor of the house and in private conversations with me and Mr Nawaz Sharif, saying that he is out to evolve a consensus with us, he wants a consensus bill, he wants a bill which is across the board, etc, etc, etc.” But these assurances still remained to be fulfilled, he said.

The interview was also conducted by Ahmed Hassan, Amir Wasim and Khawar Ghumman