Two down, 17 to go

Published February 15, 2011

WITH two of the 19 Arab despots finally kicked out, there are 17 still to be removed. The Arab League has 22 members, and only Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories offer their people the right to vote in relatively free elections.

While the demonstrators in Egypt and Tunisia have succeeded in toppling two of the region’s most durable dictators, they have yet to replace them with working democracies. But the world can only cheer them on in their quest to free their countries from the iron grip their respective rulers have had on their jugulars for decades.

During the anti-Bhutto PNA demonstrations in Pakistan following the flawed 1977 elections, Younus Saeed — a friend no longer with us, alas — returned from a trip to Egypt. He reported to me that several Egyptians he had met said admiringly of the Pakistani demonstrators: “What a people!” While the right-wing PNA movement was in no way similar to the heroic secular struggle we have just witnessed in Cairo and elsewhere, let me return the compliment to the Egyptian anti-Mubarak protesters: “What a people!”

Many in the West were troubled by the scenes of anarchy they have watched spellbound on their TV screens. Pundits and politicians have expressed fears of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover. Others have voiced their doubts about the military’s intentions. Indeed, as Stratfor, the intelligence website, notes, the military has always been in control, with first Nasser, then Sadaat and finally Mubarak leading the junta. George Friedman, the analyst who wrote the article for the website, contends that the military rebelled against Mubarak’s decision to field his son Gamal as the candidate for the presidential elections due in September. Thus, the demonstrators provided the military council with a convenient lever to use against Mubarak. It now remains to be seen whether the ageing generals will allow power to pass to an elected, popular government after 60 years of running Egypt.

But these doubts and question marks should not be allowed to rob the moment of the possibilities it has unleashed, or the sense of optimism that is so evident in and around Cairo’s Tahrir Square. For my part, I was most struck by the peaceful nature of the protests where the only violence came from pro-Mubarak thugs. Watching the demonstrators clearing the square of the debris of the protests reinforced my respect for the sheer decency of the mostly young people who succeeded in toppling a repressive dictator.

Western ambivalence towards the momentous changes that have taken place in Egypt was best captured by Gary Younge in the Guardian on 14 February:

“The west supports democracy when democracy supports the west. But Egypt further proves that, for the west, freedom is a question of strategy, not principle. That’s why, while the rest of the world looked on at the throngs in Cairo with awe and admiration, western leaders eyed them with fear and suspicion.”

For years, western and Israeli leaders have been complaining about the lack of democracy in the Middle East. This has often been cited as a reason why peace has proved so elusive, and why the United States has given its Israeli ally a blank cheque. But when genuine elections have been held, the results have been against perceived western and Israeli interests, and have therefore been deemed unacceptable. Thus, when Islamists appeared poised to win the Algerian elections in 1990, the army intervened and annulled them, triggering a brutal civil war that smoulders on. Similarly, Hamas’s victory in the occupied Palestinian territories in 2006 was rejected by Israel and the US, and the party was not permitted to take power in the West Bank. It seized control of Gaza a year later, and tensions between the Islamist party and the Palestinian Authority linger on, preventing a united front against Israel.

Across the region, the West has been happy to do business with dictatorial regimes, ignoring the very principles of democracy it claims to stands for. The result of this marriage of convenience is that a score of Arab countries have suffered under ruthless despots for decades. Of course the primary responsibility for this lack of freedom must rest with the Arabs themselves. But the fact is that the West has been complicit by arming and training the forces that prop up many of these despots.

A very useful table in the 5 February edition of the Economist provides readers with a damning indictment of the decades of dictatorial rule among the members of the Arab League. Countries have been compared on the basis of democracy, corruption and press freedom, and have fared embarrassingly badly on each count. For instance, Egypt ranks 138th for democracy, 98th for corruption, and 130th for press freedom. Libya, ruled by the capricious Muammar Qadhafi since 1969, ranks 158th, 146th, and 193rd. Yemen, where revolt is stirring, has been governed by Ali Abdullah Saleh since 1978, and ranks 146th, 146th, and 173rd. Saudi Arabia, unsurprisingly, is placed at 160th for democracy and 178th for press freedom.

These figures provide ample justification for the removal of these Arab rulers who have enslaved their people and refuse to let go of power. Fortunately, the examples of the achievements of Tunisian and Egyptian protesters have already encouraged their brethren to protest in the streets of Algeria, Yemen and Sudan. Even Iran, although not an Arab state, has felt the seismic shock waves spreading from their epicentre in Tahrir Square.

It is too early to predict the direction this movement will take. But clearly, patience with dynastic despots has run out in much of the Middle East. In addition to their cruelty and corruption, these leaders have been unable to provide their people with jobs, decent education and hope for a better future. As we have recently learned, Mubarak and his family are worth billions of dollars, and the Tunisian ex-president Ben Ali allegedly fled to Saudi Arabia with tons of gold. No doubt other Arab leaders have stashed away billions to comfort them in their exile.

So even as leaders in Washington, Tel Aviv and London wring their hands in consternation over the collapse of their favoured dominoes in the Middle East, the rest of us have good reason to cheer.

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