WITH the PPP and PML-N again at daggers drawn, the country seems poised to drift towards another uncharted territory. The bourses shed 350 points in a single day. The targeted killings are back in Karachi. The pressing economic issues including rehashing of the deal with the IMF on RGST and reclaiming the dues from the US under the Kerry-Lugar law and the Coalition Support Fund are likely to remain in a limbo owing to lack of a political consensus.

The Raymond Davis saga which has already caused much damage to the Pak-US relations will further expose the impotence and incompetence of the civilian political leadership, forcing the US to turn to the military leadership to do business with.

And more ominously, with the sowing season and the release of water only two months away, the rehabilitation of the millions of flood affectees and the restructuring of agricultural infrastructure are still waiting to be accomplished. The situation is particularly grim in Sindh where the dykes have not been repaired so far and much of the irrigation system lies in ruins. Yet, the required sense of emergency and the need to act fast are wanting both in bureaucracy and the provincial government; the former is blaming the latter for not releasing the required funds; and the latter is blaming Islamabad for not providing adequate financial support despite many assurances.

The deteriorating security environment in Balochistan is becoming quite alarming and tragic with the passage of time. The Supreme Court has, therefore, been coming rather hard on the federal government to restore order in that province. The recent kidnapping of two judges from Sibi will further infuriate the court that is already seized with a petition filed by the Balochistan Bar Council for the recovery of the four lawyers who have been kidnapped a few days back. The ongoing political wrangles and the resulting instability will put the province much behind.

On top of that, some political leaders are calling for an Arab-like revolt in Pakistan, not realising the grave repercussions of such an uprising in a country that suffers from so many fault-lines: ethnic, sectarian, religious, regional, and global. Given the prevailing semi-anarchic conditions and the cadres being under little discipline of the political parties, who is going to control the teeming (and some of them armed) crowds? Obviously, the ultimate burden of restoring the law and order would fall upon the security apparatus which is already too burdened by the war on terror and the myriad internal security challenges.

In their fits of demagogy, the proponents of revolution even ignore the mother of all fears: what if the lower ranks of the security forces joined the protesting crowds, having failed to contain the mass fury?

As if all these premonitions were not enough to scare the citizens out of their wits that now the two major political parties, and until recently the coalition partners, have fallen out, and that in a nasty and menacing way. Already, mudslinging and point-scoring have started. Soon, horse-trading and wheeling-dealing may also ensue first in Lahore and Islamabad, and later in other provinces. As one can see, JUI-F, Fata members, and MQM will emerge as the beneficiaries of the turmoil and ‘real’ kingmakers.

If recent history is anything to go by, the election commission and the courts would also be flushed with many a claim and petition, some against the floor-crossing by the so-called ‘unification bloc’, others against the fake degrees; but all these developments are bound to undermine the present system, creating such a political commotion that demand for mid-term polls would become inevitable, even though not logical or desirable.

Yes, the rightwing parties (which missed the last elections and those out of the present power grid) will surely gain from the snap elections. One, they have already been raising voice for midterm elections. Two, they have nothing to lose in demolishing the present ‘US-supported’ political setup. Three, they may fare better at the polls benefiting from the anti-American sentiments that have surged in the wake of the increasing drone attacks and lately the Raymond Davis’s ‘callous’ killings. Finally, they will not be as concerned about their personal security during the election campaign as would be the PPP (and possibly the PML-N) and other liberal political parties, particularly in Punjab and Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa.

This raises the question: how will the mid-term polls benefit the PML-N, considering the odds against it? (a) Nawaz Sharif may win seats in its traditional base, central Punjab, but he would not expect significant victories in the Seraiki and Pothohar regions of Punjab. (b) The PML-N’s presence in Sindh and Balochistan being insignificant, the seats there are more likely to be won mainly by PPP, PML-Q, PML-F, and independents, leaving only a few seats for the PML-N. (c) In KP, the PML-N’s traditional supporter ‘Hazara Belt’ does not seem happy with its support for renaming the province; and the votes in other areas will be divided among the traditional winners: religious parties, ANP, PPP, PPP-Sherpao and independents.Likewise, the PPP will also lose some, if not many, seats due to the incumbency factor, poor performance, hike in prices, corruption and poverty, and because of some dissidents.

Thus, at the end of the day, no single party would bag enough seats to form a government at the centre. Therefore, even if PML-N emerges from the polls as the largest single party, it would still need either the PPP-ANP support, or the PML-Q (or its splinter groups), religious parties, Fata members, and MQM. Ironically, none of these political parties is on good terms with the PML-N. Therefore, no wonder 0it may again fall back upon an alliance with the PPP, ANP and possibly MQM. But even then there is no guarantee that it would surely form the government as it does not enjoy favourable relations with the two other determinants of government-formation: the US and the Army.

And even if it crosses all the bridges and succeeds in forging a government, PML-N’s bearing on the foreign and security policies would not be much different from that of the present government. For instance, in order to save the country from an economic meltdown, Nawaz Sharif will need to effect major tax reforms (which he now resists) and drastically reduce non-developmental and defence expenditure (which he would find hard to do, given the establishment’s resistance). Hence, except for some improvement in governance, Nawaz Sharif’s solo flight will not bring much change in the existing political, economic and foreign policy agendas.

Which raises the question: why did Nawaz Sharif, knowing all these hazards, decide to go solo? Probably he took the gamble believing in the zero-sum game: PPP’s loss is PML-N’s gain. In other words, he seems to believe that the he has earned the goodwill that Asif Zardari has lost among the electorate. But the facts are different. Zero-sum game may be possible in a two-party system, but not in a country which has dozens of political parties, groups and powerful institutions that impact the political process. Moreover, there are too many factors — ethnic, sectarian, partisan, personal, local, foreign — that influence electorate’s psyche, and that when the elections are fair and free.

In these circumstances, what is important is not politics but statesmanship, not personal interests but national interests, and not myopia but sagacity and accommodation. At present the people clearly are not asking for mid-term elections. They desperately want an end to their economic and social miseries: security, jobs, education, health, dignity, peace and development.

And that would come only when a truly national government is formed consisting of members of the existing parliament with an unflinching commitment to good governance and the welfare, peace, dignity, honour and justice for citizens. It’s time the servants of the state truly worked for the people, the true owners of state.

The writer is a Karachi-based lawyer shahabusto@hotmail.com