Map of Pakistan - File Photo

WHILE talk of the creation of new provinces is ricocheting across the political landscape, two basic questions have largely gone unanswered: how and where? Perhaps inevitably so, because to neither question is there a straightforward answer.

Start with the mechanism for creating a new province. Controlled by Article 239 of the Constitution, the process of creating new provinces requires a two-thirds majority in separate votes in the two houses of parliament and then a further two-thirds majority in the provincial assembly of the affected province.

The formidable numbers game has prompted some supporters of new provinces to suggest the Constitution should be amended. “We need to simplify the process of creating a new province. Right now it’s impossible,” said Humayun Akhtar Khan, a PML ‘Like minded’ leader who supports the creation of a Bahawalpur province.

But amending the Constitution to change Article 239 isn’t likely to pass muster with the Supreme Court, according to legal analysts.

“It’s likely the Supreme Court would intervene given its interest in the basic structure doctrine,” said Salman Raja, a Supreme Court lawyer.

This means advocates of new provinces are left with a staggering problem: how do they convince provincial assemblies and both houses of parliament representing a fractious polity to support with a two-thirds majority the creation of new provinces?

BAHAWALPUR: Take the case of Punjab and the demand for a Bahawalpur province.

The districts of Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and Rahimyar Khan in southern Punjab were once the State of Bahawalpur, which formally acceded to Pakistan in 1951 and enjoyed a short-lived status as a province with its own legislative assembly until the imposition of One Unit in 1955.

To create the province of Bahawalpur at least 248 MPAs in the 372-member Punjab Assembly would have to give consent, a scenario unimaginable without the support of the PML-N. However, the N-League, which dominates central and urban Punjab but has comparatively little support in the south, is considered to be wary of the idea of carving up its power base, Punjab.

Achieving a two-thirds majority in parliament could be even trickier for the aspirants of new provinces. An MNA from the Hazara area in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could demand the creation of a Hazara province in return for supporting in the National Assembly the creation of a Bahawalpur province.

And the creation of a Bahawalpur province could spur demands for provincial status in several of the other states which acceded to Pakistan, particularly Swat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kalat in Balochistan.

ETHNO-LINGUISTIC CLAIMS: Behind the formidable numbers game, however, is an even more daunting challenge: the political debate on the creation of new provinces has been cast in everything but administrative terms.

The Bahawalpur claim is a historical one. The demand for a Seraiki province is based on ethno-linguistic and cultural grounds. The argument for a Hazara province in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or a Pakhtun province in Balochistan is based on ethnic grounds.

“There’s an administrative basis for demanding new provinces,” according to Khaled Ahmed, a Lahore-based journalist. “The outreach of the state is restricted. The local government issue has hit a brick wall, so new provinces may be a way of getting around it.”

Yet, the most high-profile proponent of a new province, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, has focused on ethno-linguistic claims in calling for a new Seraiki province.

Historically, the call for a Seraiki province has not been a big vote-getter and in fact occasionally worked to alienate Punjabi-, Urdu- and Baloch-speaking residents of Punjab. But analysts suggest the PPP may be playing the Seraiki card now to try and improve its position in Punjab ahead of the next elections.

There remains, though, the problem of demarcating the limits of a Seraiki province. The Seraiki language is spoken in a belt stretching from Mianwali to Pakpattan and down across central and southern Punjab. However, the language is also spoken in Dera Ismail Khan, Tank and Bannu districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and in the upper Sindh districts abutting Punjab.

A Seraiki province expansively drawn would be the largest province in the country, turning on its head the smaller-is-better argument for new provinces.

Moreover, since no province is ethnically homogenous --- there are Pakhtuns in Balochistan, Balochis in Punjab and Seraiki speakers in upper Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa --- resolving claims to provincial status on the basis of ethnicity is a minefield of epic proportions.

But because it is a political card that can be thrown into the electoral mix, parties do resort to it, as the PPP has recently.

Unsurprisingly, given the PML-N’s overall dominance in Punjab, the prime minister’s calls for a Seraiki province have riled the PML-N. “It’s purely a political stunt by the PPP to try and recover its plummeting popularity amid high inflation, loadshedding and misgovernance,” said Khurram Dastagir, a PML-N MNA from Gujranwala.

“We are willing to discuss the provinces issue, but not on ethno-linguistic grounds and as part of a national approach,” Mr Dastagir added. Privately, N-Leaguers admit they are watching south Punjab carefully to see how much traction the call for new provinces is gaining among the local population and to what extent the lukewarm reaction of the PML-N to the idea of new provinces may be denting the party’s support.

CALLS TO INCREASE: Yet, whatever the cynical political reasons for calling for new provinces at present, analysts suggest that it will be difficult to bottle up the issue again, particularly in Punjab.

“A female teacher from Ranjanpur who is posted in Lahore has to travel by road for 14 hours. That’s plain injustice,” according to Sohail Warraich, an expert on Punjab politics. “The resources diverted to other parts of Punjab from the south can’t go on unopposed forever.”

Mr Warraich claimed that growing unhappiness in south Punjab was down to three factors. “One, the economic disparity has grown since the ’80s; it’s much more today than it’s ever been. Two, the rise of the PML-N, a party of the cities and central Punjab, is seen as a threat. And three, the PPP has raised it as an issue again.”

Other analysts and PML-N insiders suggest the PML-N, long considered the main obstacle to dividing Punjab, is cautiously opening up to the possibility of new provinces. The incentives are several.

If the call for new provinces finds support among the electorate, the N-League risks losing out to political rivals who have taken up the issue. New provinces could also give the N-League an opportunity to govern in more provinces and so gain an advantage in inter-provincial forums such as Council of Common Interests and National Financial Commission.

Ironically, it is the objections of the existing smaller provinces that may now kill off the tendrils of support for new provinces emerging in Punjab.

“The smaller provinces will not want to devolve. In Sindh, the MQM has figured out that there are four cities, so Karachi alone is not attractive enough. In Balochistan and KP, the troubles there make it unlikely they will be interested,” claimed Khaled Ahmed. “New provinces make sense, but that doesn’t mean it will happen.”