Sky Wars: Pakistan, India and China
Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani (2nd R) and China's Premier Wen Jiabao (2nd L) attend a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, May 18, 2011. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's visit to China from Tuesday allows Islamabad to show it has another major power to turn to just as relations with the United States have faced intense strain after the killing of Osama bin Laden. – Reuters Photo
Pakistan has been promised an urgent delivery of a fresh batch of 50 advanced multi-role JF-17 Thunder fighter jets by China during the visit last week of Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani to Beijing.
India has officially protested saying this will affect the strategic defense balance in the region. So what’s the fuss all about; why does Pakistan need these planes and why is India alarmed? Contrary to perceptions, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s China visit and the Thunder deal is not an exclusive response to the Osama operation by the US, which has been hailed by New Delhi much to Islamabad’s chagrin.
Pakistan has for years been trying to replace its ageing F-16s fleet of 40 fighter jets that it secured in the 1980s from the US, about a dozen of which are out of service. The urge to augment its air muscle by Pakistan is also a response to India’s ambitious plan to purchase a staggering 1,500 combat planes over a 10-year period that began in 2005. As part of this plan, India this month moved closer to clinch the biggest fighter aircraft deal of the world in 20 years which will cost over $10bn and secure India about 125 fourth generation multi-role combat jets. Half of these will reportedly be based in India’s western sector (read Pakistan-specific). These will be European jets, not American F-16s, which were surprisingly rejected from the tripartite race involving American F-16, French Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon.
India, of course, has the burgeoning economy and the cash needed to buy what it wants. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India in 2010 replaced China as the world’s top weapons importer, as it aims to modernise its armed forces and project power through the region. India received 9 per cent of the volume of international transfers of ‘major conventional weapons’ from 2006 to 2010, topping China, South Korea and Pakistan. India spent over $41bn on defense in 2010, which was 2.7 per cent of its GDP. India was the ninth highest military spender of the world in 2010. China was the second highest, spending $117bn – 2.1 per cent of its GDP. Pakistan spent an estimated $5.7bn – 2.9 per cent of its GDP.
Like India, China too has the thriving economy and spare cash to build its military might and undertake regular upgrades to calibrate its needs with capacity but the Pakistani economy has been tanking for a while now and there’s barely enough money to fight an in-country insurgency by a tenacious umbrella group of terror outfits. But the instinctive reflex to keep a minimum air deterrence vis-à-vis India means Pakistan ‘has to’ restore the edge in the sky being eaten away by its ageing strike squadrons. Pakistan has a deal to get about a dozen F-16s from the US but these are too expensive and too few for Pakistan’s comfort. Hence the Thunder option. While an F-16 will set back Pakistan by a cool $125m, the J-15 will cost ‘only’ $25m. That means $1.25bn for a batch of 50. The same number of F-16s would have cost $6.26bn.
While that’s the budget side of things, the raison d ’etre of the mania to secure their respective skies lies in primal strategic calculations. All three – China, India and Pakistan – are nuclear powers. That in its self may not be super extraordinary but what is not normal is that the tense relationships between two sets of them and an unusually good relationship between one set. China and India are rival economic, military and political powers. Their nuclear doctrines calibrate worse case scenarios based on their respective offensive capabilities and build response capacities, part of which is mounting minimum air surveillance and air strike capacities. Pakistan and India are hardly the best of friends, having fought three formal and one informal war. The fourth – Kargil – was fought within a year of ending their nuclear ambiguity and testing nuclear in 1998. Four-fifths of Pakistan’s armed forces and nearly all of their offensive artillery postures are eastward toward India. A third of India’s formidable military assets – roughly five times Pakistan’s – are Pakistan-ready.
The odd relationship out among the combination within this nuclear troika is Pakistan and China. Odd not because it is unexpected but because it is inevitable. India has fought wars with both China and Pakistan while Beijing and Islamabad have never. The maxim of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ makes sense to cultivate by these two. However, because of the policies and goals and economic and military capacities, this is not an equal relationship. China gets the satisfaction of strategic policy encirclement of India by being Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friend’. All Pakistan gets is a guarantee of no veto against it in the United Nations. China doesn’t do grants, aid and budgetary support – the three perennial shopping items in Pakistan’s basket. The best it does is investment and that’s purely profit-centric, Beijing managing to recoup any money it ‘gives away’ in this shape to Pakistan. The 50 Thunder jets is the perfect ingredient of this unequal but functional relationship: Pakistan restores some of its India-centric edge in the sky while China actually gets money from Pakistan to install strategic air restraints over India towards the side of India where Beijing is not itself present! Hence the Indian concern at the Thunder deal between Islamabad and Beijing.
But the problem, from a citizen’s perspective in Pakistan, is that despite their one war, China and India are also major trade partners while Pakistan is a small fry when it comes to being a commerce pair. According to the Confederation of Indian Industry, while international trade has been growing at around 15 per cent on an average, India-China trade has increased by more than 50 per cent annually in the last five years. In 2008, China became India’s largest trading partner and the bilateral annual trade between the two countries touched $52bn. India has emerged as the 7th largest export market of China and 10th largest trade partner. The bilateral trade between the two most populous countries is set to cross $100bn per annum by end of 2012. Since it is projected that, by 2050, India and China will be the two leading economies in the world, it is inevitable that bilateral trade between the two countries will be among the most important economic relationships in the world. And all this between two traditional rivals! Why should China want to disturb this trade balance in its favor for Pakistan’s obscure advantage when Beijing can get Indian money to beef up its military edge against New Delhi!
The Sino-Pak annual trade by comparison is puny despite some strides in recent years. It has increased from $1.9bn in 2002 to $6.9bn in 2011. The two have vowed to ramp this up to $15bn by 2014. China, which has surpassed the EU as Pakistan’s second-largest trading partner, exported goods worth $5.5bn to Pakistan in 2010 and imported $1.3bn worth of products. This means Pakistan is a net exporter of money to China! And yet Pakistan crows about a relationship that is ‘deeper than the oceans and higher than the mountains’. The reality is that Pakistan sells itself cheap for this grossly unequal relationship for merely a veto shield at the UN.
The real story is not that China is providing Pakistan a clutch of fighter planes or that India has problems with China squeezing it a bit in the western sector – after all India’s own fighter jet acquisition spree more than neutralises any strategic edge Beijing or Islamabad can sculpt from this deal. The story is in what has been left unsaid: why can’t Pakistan invest $1.25bn to be paid for the planes in its tanking economy to revive it and with the profits generated buy whatever planes it wants? After all Pakistan can’t afford to go to war with India anytime soon as it only has six days of oil reserves and can’t push the fight more than six days and neither does China want Delhi and Islamabad to actually fight a war. So while Pakistan has an as-yet unnecessary edge in the sky what about the situation on the ground? Where will the money come from to cut the burgeoning poverty, unemployment and illiteracy?
Adnan Rehmat is a journalist, analyst and media development specialist. He heads Intermedia, a Pakistani media support NGO.
Both countries have to spend those billions of dollars on healthcare research and facilities, educational institutions, agricultural research & development, power generation, Water management and Industrial development. It might create millions of jobs for the masses in both countries. People of both countries deserve Peace and Prosperity.
This really is an impressive analysis of the situation. An eye-opener for many. I am very happy to have read this. Thank you Adnan Rehmat.
EXCELLENT article, highly objective and precise(kind of WSj quality
).
I hope this enmity and blind arms race ends sometime soon by both the sides. Both Pakistan and India need economic stability and development of people's status rather than weapons sold by US or CHINA.
Excellent article but the irony is that nothing seems to change even when the facts are put so objectively over and over again! Why is the pakistani ruling class so blinkered to the truth?
this is one of the best article i have read so far from the dawn news. what a postive thought! , i would strongly suggest that everyone should read this article, and also appriciat the wrtier Adan, exceelent analsis and view, well i must tell since 1949, both india and pak, were same, today look, india is emerging and probably takeover superpower in 2050, and look at pakistan; dear pakis , please awake and look at past ,start re-thinking about india, plan for future of pak, by investing in education, health program, these are the key …. ..
This is a very good post by Dawn, cheers. The only way i see for Pakistan to rise out of it's current condition is to run, run madly after development and not run madly after militarization.
Cheers
Roy
A great article for which must thank Dawn. While reading the piece I had one expectation: an estimate of the level to which trade can grow between India and Pakistan if we start a friendly neighbourhood, the areas where we can work together and what we can achieve! Undeniably it will be the envy of the world — who wants that if we ourselves do not? Once again, thanks Dawn, for raising the voice of sanity.
Is this article trying to convey to the reader that Pakistan China friendship had been a waste of time and threat from the eastern border a phantom? OR is the writer trying to create doubts in the minds about the capability of Pakistani military and civil leadership and the people in the aftermath of the recent events in Pakistan?
Such articles never appeared when Pakistan was close to the US and UK. There too there was an unequal trade partnership. However, because that relationship also included AID and many were being benefitted, opposition to that relationship was contained.
And now with Pakistan moving away from the western camp for their military purchases, why this hue and cry from certain quarters.
It is good decision by Pakistan policy makers to balance out their foreign policy and trade policy, and not keep all the eggs in just one basket.
MAV
Sweden
i dont know d real motive behind adnan's article but he is obviously right in one thing that instead of fighting and spending hundred thousands of money on arms purchase it can be used to remove poverty . all the money being spend by them on outstanding each other the real benefittors are mean AMERICA WHICH CAN TAKE ANYONE'S SIDE TO PROTECT ITS INTERST AND CUNNING CHINA
both india and pakistan must trust each other in order to live peacefully
but a great amount of work is needed to be done by pakistan in increasing trust given its record of engaging war first
The need of the hour for PAK is a non partisan, non religious movement to educate the people. The importance of democratic rule and the clear and present danger of encouraging terrorism.
excellent article in the best interest of pakistani people. for chinese everything is use nd throw just like chinese goods. they r using pakistan to counter india but india is wisely developing itself with a rapid pace, that is exactly what pakistan also needs. Leave China nd make friendship with india bcoz india can help pakistan to come out from all of its problems bcoz sentiments are attached between two countries. china could not nd will not do anything for pakistan than merely using it as previously done by U.S
Today one of the edits in an Indian vernacular newspaper quoted Pakistani Railway Minister Ghulam Ahmed Billour as saying, "We are fighting and our people are starving." And I thought the stark truth was neatly put. And now this writing provides a clear and in-depth analysis and practical view of the present scenario. Yes, very objective and informative. Truly appreciate your writing, Adnan.
Good analytical article,its not that it has written by pakistani for India but about how a positive view can change the thinking of people….no hatred comments are posted here and all are writing positive…that is enough indication for all of us to wake up and stop biting each other…there is no way one can grow with war…its only economy,health and education can lead us to where we all want to reach…come on pakistan brother lets unit and show world we are together then see how world look at us…..weldone dawn
Nice article. For stability of any country power is required, but it should go in proper hands. A stable, educated, civilized pakistan is always good for India as well as Pakistan itself. Pakistan full of inferiority complex will always be bad for both of countries. If the power goes to suffering pakistani it will be bad for both. Right now it should focus economic stability rather than India centric thinking. The same is with India because how so ever India is developing it needs much more development still, we are far behind with west.
One of the best article i read on Dawn. Writer cleared all the points between These three countries. He is right that Every one needs good life more than war, But one thing is for a good life everyone is in race to become more powerful than other, its only countries or continentals a single person also…war stars from race.. . race for good life..and two good business men never be friends….
I am thinking, what India and Pakistan have achieved in 52 years by being befooled by western powers selling their weapons to them and keeping them divided using divide and rule policy to squeeze out all the wealth from India and Pakistan and virtually ruling them.
i am a south African of Indian descent(now living in Australia). I take much interest in the happenings on the subcontinent. One of the finest articles i ve read… politicians should pay heed to the words of this wise journalist
a must to read article for every pakistani!can anyone identify a Indian or Pakistani from outer look? the ans is – no!!!! so why this animosity? china is milking Pakistan for its own profit,anyone can guess it.so the people of Pakistan should understand this fact & try to pressurise their corrupt establishment to think in right direction. becoz time has come for both of the country to live in peace & prosper,so that no one can take unnecessarily advantages….
India fails to mention that it is spending billions to co-develop a fifth generation stealth multi role aircraft with the Russian Sukhoi company.
The aircraft is called the T-50 and will have capabilities similar to the F-22 raptor.
Please keep in mind that India shares her land border with 7 states. One of them is Pakistan. That alone is enough justification. You can ignore the fact that India also has a huge maritime border.
Fantastic article, should be translated in all regional languages of Pakistan.
I was once viewing a show in one famous American news channel , few yrs back ,it was on Indo-Pak relationship,naturally two important political personnel from both countries were present.After intial sweet exchanges between the two politician , we suddenly observed some hot uncomformtable exchanges between the two.I observed with incredible irritation & a lot of shame , the programme host/ comperer didnot even try to stop the heated exchange between the two politicians, instead, enjoyed this entire spat with a wry smile on the face.
As long India , Pakistan fights with each other,insanity,terrorism,poverty,illiteracy,corruption will win,people from around the world will make fun of us.