AMID elaborate security arrangements, a ten-member delegation of the International Court of Arbitration, accompanied by both Indian and Pakistani officials and lawyers, visited the project site of the disputed Kishanganga dam in Kanzalwan in Indian Kashmir and Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project in Azad Kashmir in mid-June to make an assessment of the state of ongoing construction work at the two places.

This is the first concrete activity by the World Bank-nominated CoA since it was called in to arbitrate in May last year by Pakistan in the latest dispute between the two neighbours over India's use of its share of the rivers of the Indus water system. The court, after the end of the visit, has made no remark yet about its assessment of the situation as it exists on the ground. India had originally initiated plans for the 303-megawatt project in 1984 but did not pursue it for a long time. It was after finding Pakistan's Neelum-Jhelum project making progress on the other side of Line of Control that India revived it. “This project is of strategic importance to India…we have to move heaven and earth to ensure the earliest commissioning of the project,” the then minister of state for power, Jairam Ramesh, said in 2008.

India has a reason to feel satisfied as the Kishanganga project is now in full-swing. Arshad Abassi, a Pakistani water expert, is of the view that Kishanganga “is far ahead of Pakistan's Neelum-Jhelum project. Technically, whoever builds first establishes the right to the river. Due to the negligence of Pakistan's water and power ministry, it is likely that we will lose the case.” Kishanganga is officially due to be ready by 2014 while Neelum's date of completion is 2016.

The negligence was clearly visible when the Court of Arbitration held its first meeting in January this year. No formal business could take place because Pakistani team of lawyers had not come prepared. The court asked Islamabad to file its case by April 15 which it didn't. It deposited its memorandum by the end of May. Now the court has fixed July 15 for Pakistan to present and argue its case. Then, India will submit its reply in six months. So, for India it is a blessing in disguise as it will get enough time to speed up completion of the power project.

On May 9, Senate Standing Committee on Water and Power was informed by Indus Water Commissioner Sheraz Memon that former special assistant to the PM on water resources and agriculture Kamal Majeedullah was responsible for causing the delay in taking the case to the Court of Arbitration (CoA) as he insisted on hiring a lawyer of his own choice. Responding to queries of committee members, he said that “I had insisted during the first meeting of the CoA to obtain a stay order against construction of the Kishenganga dam by India but Kamal Majeedullah did not agree with it.”

Memon said that Pakistan would lose much of its water share in Neelum River if India succeeds in completing the construction of the tunnel, through which the water of Kishenganga river is to be diverted to produce 330 MW power. The water will then join the Wullar Lake and ultimately flow down to Neelum-Jhelum. The Indian scheme will reduce Pakistan's energy generation by 10 per cent. Memon informed the committee that India has completed 15 per cent construction work on Kishanganga dam. But some members pointed out that India has already completed 43 per cent of the work. Pakistan would lose the “water priority right” if India completes 50 per cent work on the dam.

Pakistan finds Kishanganga's design contrary to the provisions of Indus Water Treaty, as is the case with other numerous power projects, planned or initiated, that enables India to control and even block river flow into its territory. Pakistan has also voiced objections to the planned diversion of the Kishanganga's waters to the Wullar Lake, the largest fresh water lake in Asia, as this would further deplete river discharge into the country.

The water disputes between Pakistan and India have assumed such intensity over the years that Americans fear these could ruin the prospects of peace in the subcontinent. According to US embassy cables accessed by Dawn through Wikileaks, as published in this newspaper on June 22, US ambassador in India, David Mulford, could judge even in 2005 in a confidential cable that “even if India and Pakistan resolve the Baglihar and Kishanganga projects, there are several more hydroelectric dams planned for Indian Kashmir that might be questioned under the Indus Water Treaty by Pakistan. These dams have the potential to destroy the peace process or even to lead to war”.

Some of these dams included under-construction then, now completed, 450 MW Dul Hasti Dam, the proposed Bursar, Pakul Dul and Sawalkote projects, all of them having 1000 MW capacity. Some other projects on Chenab river, as reported by Wikipedia, include Salal Hydroelectric Project, Kirthai Dam, Uri project I and II, Nimoo Bazgo, Dumkhar dam and Chutak dam.

In a cable dated November 3, 2008, then US ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson claimed that “officially, India dispels Pakistani claims but, unofficially, the Indian side admits that 'structural constraints of Baglihar Dam and weather constraints' have resulted in a reduction of Pakistan's share of water.”

Ms Patterson also stated that “Privately, Pakistani officials acknowledge they are very worried about future plans of India to build numerous other dams (reportedly up to eight additional dams) on the Chenab River and the likelihood that water scarcity driven by India's increased usage will become a more frequent occurrence in Pakistan.” A Congressional report in the US puts the figure at 33.

According to another cable, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, G. Parthasarthy, had told American diplomats that the Swiss neutral expert's decision in Baglihar dam case that favours India has “set precedents” for future construction of dams. In the cable dated February 14, 2007, he said: “A lot of projects that were held up are now possible,” referring in particular to the Kishanganga Dam project. US Ambassador Mulford noted in a comment that, “India has the green light to complete and/or build similar dams on other rivers throughout Jammu and Kashmir is a fact likely not lost on anyone in energy-starved New Delhi.”