The world's fifth largest exporter of rice, Pakistan's rice exports fell to about 3.7 million tonnes in the fiscal year to June 2011, from 4.6 million in the year before, after it was lashed by devastating floods in summer 2010. - APP file photo

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to export up to 4.5 million tonnes of rice in the 2011/12 fiscal year on an expected bumper crop, traders said on Thursday, adding to an amply supplied rice market.

The world's fifth largest exporter of rice, Pakistan's rice exports fell to about 3.7 million tonnes in the fiscal year to June 2011, from 4.6 million in the year before, after it was lashed by devastating floods in summer 2010.

But farmers and traders are expecting a bumper crop of six million to 6.5 million tonnes this year. Harvesting of non-basmati rice begins in late September and basmati a month later.

“So far things are going in the right direction and we are expecting a bumper crop ... We should be able to export between four million and 4.5 million tonnes this year,” Taufeeq Ahmed Khan, vice chairman of the Rice Exporters' Association of Pakistan (REAP), told Reuters.

The country also has a carryover stock of more than one million tonnes, according to traders. Annual consumption is about 2.3 million tonnes.

Pakistani rice will enter a market already well-supplied by Vietnam, which is expected to export up to 7.3 million tonnes; India, which is lifting an export ban in place since 2008 and Thailand, which expects to export more than 10 million tonnes.

Khan expected “decent prices” for this year on expectations of Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, boosting its prices.

“Thailand has increased their prices and chances are that with the new government there, prices will go up further,” he said.

Thai prices have started rising in recent weeks with the new government in Bangkok, which promised higher prices to farmers.

On Wednesday, the benchmark 100 per cent B grade Thai white rice which has jumped nearly four per cent from last month because of hoarding on speculation about aggressive intervention by the incoming government, was steady from last week at $550 per tonne.

Vietnam's five per cent broken rice stood at $505-$510 a tonne on Wednesday, which was up from $495 last week but still well below the same grade of Thai rice, offered at $530.

Pakistani traders see enough market for their grains. Pakistani basmati goes mainly to the Middle East, Europe and the United States. Non-basmati is sold all over the world.

In 2010/11, Pakistan sold about 2.6 million tonnes of non-basmati rice and 1.1 million tonnes of basmati, according to REAP's provisional data.

Rice is Pakistan's third biggest crop after wheat and cotton, and accounts for about eight per cent of Pakistani exports.

It contributes about 1.6 per cent to the country's gross domestic product.