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In October 2008 at an event marking General Musharraf’s 1999 coup, Shahbaz Sharif was addressing a gathering of his supporters. PML-N had just capped a phenomenally successful year which saw them go from the wilderness of exile to the corridors of power. They had ousted their arch-nemesis Musharraf and there was an air of redemption to the rally.
As Shahbaz Sharif wrapped up his speech he broke into verse and began eloquently reciting Habib Jalib’s Dastoor (popularly known as Main Nahee Manta) from memory; the crowd went berserk. With every verse, the crowd numbering only a few hundred worked itself into a frenzy. It was as if the poem had been written for this day. Watching on my computer screen thousands of miles away, I was moved.
On Friday, we witnessed an encore performance. In front of a much larger crowd gathered for the PML-N rally in Lahore, Sharif again broke into verse. In an attempt to breathe life into a dull, diatribe-laced speech he fell back on to a trick that hard worked for him previously. It was a more melodious rendition of the poem but it failed to get the desired response. As he recited “Wo jo saye main har maslihat kay palay”, the irony was inescapable. It was as if he was rebelling against himself. It was a desperate attempt to sell himself as a revolutionary, but no one was buying it. Three years of alignment with the status quo had taken its toll. Shahbaz Sharif had lost his mojo, sacrificed at the altar of expediency.
Shahbaz Sharif and PML-N’s transformation from champions of change to symbols of the status quo did not happen overnight. It began perhaps as far back as late 2007 when PML-N broke ranks with the APDM and decided to contest the general elections held in 2008. Amidst the election fever and the pining for change in the Pakistani public, PML-N got a pass from the public for betraying the APDM. The electorate collectively shrugged as APDM sans PML-N sat out the election. PML-N ended up bagging the votes of all parties that were part of APDM.
Once in power in Punjab, it continued a half-hearted struggle for the restoration of the judiciary. Only when the PML-N government in Punjab was removed in February 2009 did the Sharif brothers throw caution to the wind and begin an all-out, no-holds-barred struggle to restore the judiciary. Had the PCO judiciary not taken that drastic step, the judiciary may never have been restored.
When the Supreme Court declared the NRO unconstitutional, PML-N’s response befuddled many. The credibility of the 2008 elections had been called into question and fresh elections should have been the next logical step. But when PML-N refused to call for fresh elections, it lost the last shreds of its credibility.
If there were any doubts that PML-N had become a pillar of the status quo, the 18th Amendment removed them. By handing ‘party heads’ the authority to declare dissenters as ‘defectors’ and initiate proceedings to unseat a sitting parliamentarian, the 18th Amendment effectively recognised the major political parties as personal fiefdoms. By bringing judicial appointments under a parliamentary commission, the independence of judiciary was curtailed. These two clauses of the 18th Amendment are the clearest evidence of the confluence of interests of the two major political parties. Had the media not been as strong as it has become, it surely would have been gagged in the 18th Amendment as well.
PML-N had vociferously campaigned to reverse Musharraf’s anti-terror policies. Yet they remained silent as the government dragged its feet on implementing the unanimous parliamentary resolution advocating dialogue to resolve terrorism. It watched from the sidelines as Pakistan descended into blood-curdling chaos. If negligence and inaction were declared crimes, PML-N would be the biggest offender. At a critical juncture in Pakistan’s history, PML-N was in a position to arrest the slide into anarchy. Yet they chose not to.
With elections approaching fast, Shahbaz Sharif has made a desperate attempt to arrest his party’s slide. Unfortunately for him, his and his party’s transformation from champions of change to symbols of the status quo has happened in plain sight. It has cost him his Mojo and come election time, seems like it will cost him his government too.
Irfan Waheed is an engineer working in Austin, Texas. He can be reached at irfanwaheed@msn.com or on twitter.
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
What solutions does IK have about pakistan's problems. At the moment i see only promises and shallow talking. Accusing everyone else of corruption and bad governence is what other politicians also do. pakistan.
Dear Mujtaba,IK is not in power at the moment to solve your problems.At present he can make only promises and after coming into power will materialize these promises.His accusation of corruptions on Zardari and Nawaz Sharif are not false.Every Pakistani knows that these two families have done and have been doing corruptions.If they are doing corruption we should stop them by force,if we can't stop them by force we should at least stop them with our tongues.Do you want to say that we should close our eyes on corruption and let them continue it.It is the responsibility of every one to criticize a sin being done around him.Any one who keep silent on their crimes is actually accomplice to the crimes.
Mr Shareef shuold quote verses from Rasputin rather than Habib Jalib as his real character resembles him more.
Since entering the corridors of power Sharif brothers' record has not been enviable. Majority of Pakistani people are poor but Sharifs have remained indifferent to the the plight of this class of people. In fact they terminated quite a large number of people from their jobs during the periods they were in power. (Most of those people were reinstated by the People Party's government. Furthermore they victimised and witch hunted their political opponents,
Sharifs have lost all credibility. They are vindictive, when in power they institute falso cases against their political opponents, intolerant of dissent. They have no sympathy for the poor, termination of employees on large scale has the hallmark of their rule. Lip service is all they have for the poor. Poor of Pakistan should be beware of them and ignore them in elections
Tried and tested Shariff brother. No thakyou, they should be exile from Pakistan or should be in prison for betraying Pakistanis.
I don't know why should the people of Pakistan give another chance to the defaulters of 1999. I remember everyone sharing sweets on their ouster but today they are back to repeat the same saga.
Excellent Analysis. Shout-out from UT Austin
Sharif brothers are claiming alot but haven't done much and people know that.
My fear is that it will be other way around ,both zardari and nawaz will eat the wave and desire of change in the country.
The real threat for this change to occure doesnt come from zardari but from Nawaz sharif as he poses himself as a "fake" altenative.
Lets vote for change and not tangle ourselves in the spiderweb of "status quo" again.
I liked the analysis as it is based on facts. I don't know for how long people like them would keep stufying and cashing simple-hearted Pakistani. Time has come to change old faces whom we tried more than once. "A good muslim should not be bamboozled thrice."
I just know..when ever they has a chance to rule..they lost their credibility by utmost cryption and failure to run state machineries and firms. They always thought about themselves never for People of Pakistan. Even as an opposition ledder their role is the worst which give opportunity to ruler party to do more what they want…
Sharif bros are not leaders nor they were never they could be……reason is simple they are not genius enough to lead the nation……let see one man show what could get among the majority of illitrate voters……
at least he got his hair back…
great analysis
great analysis!
lets wait for IK's Rally in Karachi to see, whose vote bank is more affected. Commenters who think that only PML(N) is affected, forget that majority of seats from Faisalabad and some from Gujranwala belong to PPP, which he's threatening even more. If he succeeds in Karachi then after bagging KP and Punjab then no one feel threatened at all because they all would sit in opposition after next election. InshAllah
I think it is thoughtful analysis. I was PML (N) supporter but gradually I lost confidence in their leadership. At every difficult time both brothers used to leave country on "health" reasons. They tried to give decency and tolerance to our politics too much too soon and at wrong time. About TI, I am not sure, they do not have any think tank, no experienced person so far but I hope now people will take this party as serious option and may start joining it and soon it may have few honest, experienced persons.
Shahbaz should have focused on good democratic governance in Punjab. Then everyone would have said let him do this at national level. But he got into frivolous politics.
I was a strong supporter of PML-N. But I agree with you on reflecting the real what has happened so far. I am surprised on the people and their vision who still beleive in the tested politicians. I congratulate you on picturing the real images and wish you to keep on writing like this. I pray for all the gentlemen who still are in the denial phase and not ready to accept an inevitable change.
The Shareefs have never had any mojo (at least for the last 2 decades). They cannot deliver a motivational speech to save their life if they had to – appealing only to ignorant masses (which are dwindling fast). Thanks to Musharraf for freeing the media, the single most important step towards true democracy.
very nice
Great and objective analysis. I agree with Nasser Ali Khan that PPP votes are highly likely to swing in favor of PTI since PTI is positioning itself for social welfare politics like ZAB. As a whole, I think they have made some significant blunders over the years, and the most problematic of those has been their 'power high'. Had they gotten off their high horses, they would have realized that they are losing ground to competing political narratives.
Great News for all Pakistanis! Rejoice in the fact that now at least we know that our team is giving 100% when playing in the field and you're not just wasting your time watching them…
wrong forum…
A very good analysis. after very poor performance by PPP, Mian brothers thought an open field in next elections despite their flip flop politics during critical times.But thanks to independent media this time the game seems over for them.
I like ur article and appreciate ur analytical view but I would like say that people in Pakistan are quite miserable that they alway try new new things and it's easy to cheat them by giving false hopes during elections.I reckon that even though TI is saying right things which everyone knows but the hard reality is that they are not a little bit capable of running a country without using the support of establishment.they will be like a puppet in their hands.Its better that people should make mature decisions and if possible the two big parties like ppp and pml (n). Join hands to take the country out of it's crisis,which is mainly due to terrorism and afghan war.every government in the world do some corruption but if they continue to make the country flourishing and not hurting the interests of common people that is acceptable.undeniably these two parties have experience and abilities to deal with chronic problems
A very good analysis man. Keeping the events of the last weekend aside, It was obvious that PML(N) has really lost its mojo and the announcement of a counter rally, two days before PTIs rally, was a admission at part of the PML(N) leadership.
Good Article.
Yes, PPP and PML-N will both suffer vote bank lost, but I believe that this next election a large number of youngsters will vote for PTI who never voted before in their life, hence they were no one’s vote bank. Either they were too young or not interested in the previous elections. We saw this on Sunday that a large percentage of the crowd was of those people who never went to a political rally before. In the next election the kids who collected money for Shaukat Khanum more than a decade ago, will now vote for PTI. I also think that even PTI was not expecting this much crowd to show up on the rally.
It does not matter who lost their mojo or who gained it, in the end what matters is that democracy is secured. Too long Pakistan and the Pakistanis have been deprived of this beautiful flower of democracy. Political process must roll forward unhindered and no one should be allowed to steal power from the back door anymore. Whatever Sharif brothers did was definitely for their benefit but it was all done within the framework of playing politics. We must commend them that they did not adhere to unconstitutional means and wreak havoc on an already weak country (you must give credit where it deserves). They have shown patients and gained maturity in politics. They have finally realize that elected leader is far more better than the nominated one. The rise of IK is the result of following the path of this policy. It has given a chance for others to enter the political game and IK has definitely benefited from it (of course the US has a big part to play here by constantly breathing hard on the Pak Army and keeping it at bay in getting involved in Pakistani politics. The result being the departure of Gen Mush from the helm of Pakistani affairs). Now it is upto the Pakistani politicians and the public to take it further down and follow the road of democracy. It will require maturity and a lot of patients and in the end Pakistan and the Pakistanis will be the ultimate winners. People are always looking for hope and in all this gloom of politics IK has given them that hope. in the past there has been hope in the form of Generals but the Generals always have a handicap/baggage and that is that they are not the elected but the selected leaders but with IK it is different he is the byproduct of the system. Now people have another choice and this will make the other political parties realize that status quo is not in their favor and in order to be relevant they must work for the benefit of the people at all times.
I believe both PML(N) and PPP are finished. No leadership, no charisma, absolutely no character.
I don't think that IK will dent the PML(N)'s vote bank considerably. This analysis is not logical as the incumbent (power) facor can go more against Q, PPP and even against ANP. If it comes to the comparison that who is more credible, then I think against the likes of Zardaris, Gilanis, Choudhrys and walis, Shahbaz Shrif is more credible. Why to ignore the worst performance of any government (federal) in the history of Pakistan and its allies alike. There seem to be no governments in the provinces except Punjab (to some extent). This time around there is no sympathy factor for PPP. Dirty tricks of Zardari who is in fact playing Maciavellian politics will not save them in elections.
as a neutral, the analysis was good but little bit exaggerated. one thing that i can't understand is that basically HABIB JALIB was a socialist poet . he hated capitalism and feudal lords including elite class but it is very painful for me by seeing a person like shahbaz shareef versing the poetry of that great poet who is totaly against the idea of shahbaz shreef.
Very well said, but i disagree that sharif brothers had the bad intentions. I think its more to do with poor judgement, lack of self belief and self motivation which makes you a national leader. Their approach is too cautious and in current circumstances its too little too late.
So you are suggesting that Sharifs are incapable. This analysis is also accurate.
Look, Mr. Waheed! Shahbaz Sharif never had any mojo, magic spell or charisma. How can he lose a quality he never had, and will never have.
biased Analyses…
The writer does not seem to be anti-shareefs. He has has correctly brought out the causes which led to the down fall of a big party like PML-N. Every citizen of Pakistan was desperately waiting for the Shareefs to play their role as opposition effectively but it was not to happen. Ultimately the vacuum has been filled by Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf of Imran Khan, purely according to the law of nature.
I would not discuss about the votebank of both the parties PML-N and T I, because no one can predict about it exactly. PML N 's rally aimed against the failure of the government & its ground less policies while Tahreek insaf procession aimed at just revenge rally and to generating its votebank through promising to satisfy the nation's desires that may be true or false.
Imran khan has done more sitting outside the government that the sharif brothers sitting inside for 3 terms. They were part of this government for 3 years
They are still in power. So PML N is rallying against its own failures ? Stop selling crap when the facts are clear. NO AMOUNT OF MISGUIDANCE CAN HIDE THEIR CRIMES.
Nice Analysis! Many people think that IK popularity will hurt PML(N) and benefit PPP. I totally disagree with it. Numerous die hard supporters of Z.A.Bhutto dislike Zardari they will definitely swing towards PTI. Initially PML(N) will lose its vote bank but ultimately PPP will also suffer from PTI success.
Good piece and all these reasons made us to look towards Imran Khan. They allowed Zardari and co to do whatever he want to and in turn had Punjab. They have 1000s of policemen protecting them, helicopters to move around, business flourishing, raiwind, model town and all other homes declred as camp offices so that their expenses be beared by Punjab Govt.
Thank you Irfan, for a very good analysis of PML(N). More power to your pen and those like you. Good and effective media (still falls short in Pakistan) and the youth (yet unmobilised) will be the biggest ingredients in any effort to make a change in Pakistan which is better and permenant. That day shall surely come, Inshallah!
thx u Irfan for writing this piece, PML-N should know tht you can not fool people always.
Good analysis!! I still fear that even though IK will eat into N's votebank, PPP might be the ultimate benefactor
This is my biggest worry. Would the country be able to stomach another PPP led government?
Inshallah PPP will make the next new Goverment…