Thinking the unthinkable
James Howard Kunstler is an American writer who enjoys a large following for his prediction of a looming future in which our technological civilisation based on oil dependence will have failed us, and for his almost uniquely courageous and insightful (as far as I’m concerned) articulation of the ways in which American society, in particular is going to have to dismantle and reconstruct itself, and soon, if we want to avoid a very hard landing indeed.
His tone and style are not to everyone’s taste; he can be abrasive, profane, and sometimes insulting. But sometimes it’s important for somebody to be impolite, for the sake of saying things that otherwise might not be said, and Kunstler usually handles that role with aplomb and panache. He also affects a gentler and more compassionate vision in his World Made By Hand series of novels set in the aftermath. I’ve been reading his weekly blog faithfully ever since a friend gave me a copy of his book The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century, about five years ago.
Kunstler’s concern with oil means, of course, that he can’t avoid addressing issues of geopolitics, and more specifically of the West’s relations with Muslim countries. Iran’s threat this week to close the Strait of Hormuz is an example of something he would, and probably will, write about. But his main theme is how American society has lost its way with its obsessive grasping after the suburbanised “American dream” and its related dependence on automobiles. When he is writing about this, Kunstler is at his prophetic best.
But, like any ambitious writer with a universal vision, Kunstler occasionally strides all too confidently beyond his own authority. He also – again, like any of us – is animated partly by personal and visceral sentiments and resentments. Thus this week, in his long look ahead at trends for 2012, he wrote:
“It is hard to think about the bizarre case of India, a nation with one foot in the modern age and the other in a colorful hallucinatory dreamtime. Their climate-change-related problems are doing heavy damage to the food supply. Their groundwater is almost gone. The troubles of the wobbling global economy will take a lot of pep out of their burgeoning tech and manufacturing sectors. It wouldn’t be surprising if these travails prompted distracting hostilities with its failed-state neighbor, Pakistan.
Pakistan, with its inexhaustible supply of Islamic maniacs, could easily start a rumble with some crazy caper like the Mumbai hotel assault of two [sic] years ago, but this time India would answer with a heavy cudgel, perhaps even a nuclear sortie designed to neutralise Pakistan’s dangerous toys at a stroke. And that would be that. Like cleaning out an annoying neighborhood crack house. It’s not a very appetising scenario, but what else can you do about failed states with nuclear bombs?”
I quote this passage, even though I consider it flawed or just plain wrong on several points as well as dangerous, to show Pakistanis what your country is up against, in terms of American perception. For what it’s worth, Kunstler doesn’t think America is in very good shape either. Part of Kunstler’s problem, though, is that while, legitimately given the kind of writer he is, he takes the whole world for his bailiwick, he consistently treats Muslim countries as if they were all about Islam and nothing else (and he doesn’t mean that in a good way), and he gives a pass to any country, such as India, that’s positioned against a Muslim country or countries. This doesn’t invalidate his credibility overall, but it does reveal a large blind spot.
It’s unavoidably true that India is the dominant power on the subcontinent, but part of what’s missing from Kunstler’s drive-by geopolitical analysis is a recognition that several of the problems he identifies as India’s, from climate change to water to “dangerous toys,” are also Pakistan’s. Speaking of which, as every Pakistani knows, it was India’s then-BJP government that raised the stakes in 1998 by testing a nuclear bomb first. It’s maddening, and telling, how Westerners tend to forget that awkward fact, or don’t even know it in the first place.
In any case, if India were to hit Pakistan with a preemptive nuclear sortie that would not be that, to put it mildly. Would Pakistan retaliate? Probably tens of millions of people would die on both sides of the border. We think – and hope – that such a scenario is unthinkable. But if, as this ominous new year begins, we cast our minds back over the past decade, we should all be chastened by an awareness of how many previously unthinkable scenarios have already come to pass.
Kunstler’s provocative prognostications do raise hard questions: Does Pakistan have an “inexhaustible supply of Islamic maniacs”? Is it – or, less provocatively, could it become – a “failed state”? Could, or would, Pakistan “start a rumble” with India? Above all, who’s in charge? Pakistan needs nothing more than it needs mature, responsible, patriotic (as distinct from nationalist) leadership. Then again, that’s also more than anything what my own country needs.
Ethan Casey is the author of Alive and Well in Pakistan and Overtaken By Events: A Pakistan Road Trip. He can be reached at www.facebook.com/ethancaseyfans and www.ethancasey.com
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
Let us analyze this thinking
When water leaves the boundaries of a river or sea what we do. We put bags of sands to stop or slow down its flow or destruction. Similar scenario exists in here. When USA and Pakistan Army recklessly attacked and killed people in tribal area, thousands of innocent people got killed. When bread breeder of a family gets killed, they can go any extent to take revenge of that. The innocent people, affected in the tribal area and in Afghanistan, were exploited by wrong minded people. When USA attacked Afghanistan, people asked them to learn a lesson from the British but they proudly said that we are American not British. They should adopt a tactics different from British but they didn’t. Now Pakistan is a buffer zone between such elements and rest of the world. If they succeeded in damaging Pakistan, India and rest of the world will be exposed to them. They will ruin the peace of the world. World should
1) Help Pakistan morally and financially
2) Increase the aid of Pakistan in terms of education because education is the only weapon which can weaken these elements.
3) Increase trade with Pakistan because if poverty drops, the activities of wrong minded people to recruit innocent people will be dropped.
4) World should continue to support democratic process in Pakisatn.
20 billion in aid from the US over ten years…. ….where did that all go? Pakistan really needs to become self sufficient. Stop buying nukes and make electricity, water facilities, and schools.
Chris you are not fully aware of the facts. It was 18 billion over ten years, but 12 billion was reimbursement of expenses incurred for deployment of 100,000 Pakistani troops along Afghan border. That left mere 6 billion for economic and military assistance. Transporting hundreds of thousands of NATO containers from Karachi port to Afghanistan damaged our highways. Pakistan's economy suffered over 70 billion, not to speak of 30,000 Pakistanis killed in this global war. No country has sacrificed more than Pakistan. Compare this to US spending 2 billion in Afghanistan every week, and a trillion dollars wasted in Iraq war, all for getting rid of one evil man. No weapons of mass destruction were ever found. Enough of these wars thrust on other countries, let's give peace a chance.
What did Pakistan do in 1990s when there were U.S sanctions against Pakistan? Pakistan is a survivor no matter how you put it.
Pakistan is a very tough country, probably one of the toughest in the world if you look at how it has survived
all these challenges throughout it's history. It is the same country no one thought would survive a year after
it's independence. It has survived four wars with an enemy five times it's size. It survived when it was split into two pieces. It picked up the pieces and went on to become a nuclear power of the world. It survived brutal dictatorships during half of it's existence. It has also survived 4th generation warfare waged on it's people by the leading powers of the world. Above all it has survived one of the most incompetent and corrupt political leadership of modern times.
Pakistan now seems to be making wise choices. It should hang in there for a little while longer. Political scene in Pakistan is changing for the better. There are enormous natural resources waiting to be utilized. Not to mention, all energy and trade routes go through Pakistan. It is the town square of South Asia. I have no doubts in my mind that Pakistan will emerge as a world power in 21st century.
Well said Mahmud. It is hard for the west to understand Islam is way of life for us and we are here to stay. The turn Pakistan is taking will show to the world that countries like Pakistan and Turkey can make it on their own. God bless Pakistan
Quaid-e-Azam and people like me had the same 'dream' you have mentioned but alas after over 60 years we may have survived, we are not seeing the light at the end of the dark tunnel. Question Mr Casey poses is whether we have Islamist maniacs or not . All the signs are that unfortunately we have that element among us which has been creating havoc during the last few years. The second question Mr Casey poses is whether Pakistan is a 'failed state or going to be failed state'. And the answer is again unfortunately the way things are at present, it would lead Pakistan to become a failed state. A country where law and order does not exist, where citizens live their lives in fear, where the economy is going down hill year after year, where the government is unable to govern, where there are extreme ethnic divisions, where unemployment is rife, where over 70 percent of the population is living in dire poverty, where illiteracy rate reaches 70 percent and where armed gangs roam the streets would not survive unless there are immediate drastic changes. True Pakistan has great potential which is not new , they had been there for over 60 years. Pakistan needs a change of course in order to continue to survive. That change seems to be no where near in sight. Even people like Dawn's Mr Cowasji have given up.
But don't forget, none of the wars with India were started by India. Just read the pages of DAWN for the truth!
Well said brother!
"Islamic maniac" – this phrase is an oxymoron. How could someone be 'truly' Islamic i.e. Islamic in its true sense (and not a "crazy caper") and be a maniac at the same time?
People come up with all sorts of phrases and terms nowadays, often adding 'ism' to various words, at will…
The term "Islamist" too took me the longest time to understand (still don't get it completely).
Most of the comments seem to make little of this article. Not fair. The truth is that Pakistan is not only having an inexhaustible supply of Islamic maniacs it also in over mode of supply of generals who protect and promote these maniacs as strategic assets. A dangerous cocktail that uniquely distinguishes Pakistan.