For several years now, Dr Tariq Banuri, who is the Director of the Division for Sustainable Development at the UN Headquarters in New York has been advising the Government of Pakistan: “In the near future, non-renewable energy will become costly and unpredictable. Even current energy costs are too high for the poor people in Pakistan”. This year, he was back in Pakistan to attend the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (of which he was a founding director) and Heinrich Boll foundation’s joint Pakistan-India Track II dialogue on climate change that took place in Islamabad last week.

While the dialogue itself was interesting, with lectures on water, energy, adaptation, gender, livelihoods and security all in the context of the rapid climate change that is threatening the entire South Asian region, what I found particularly relevant to us given our enormous energy crisis was the talk that he gave on the side to the Pakistan Foreign Office. His focus was on how to prepare for the UN Conference on Sustainable Development that is being held in Rio de Janeiro in June this year. “Rio is opening the door to the green economy”, he explained. It is hoped that in Rio, the world will come together to formulate a global action plan to pursue low carbon economies.

The fact is that economic growth can be compatible with reductions of emissions of carbon dioxide — this has been proven by Sweden which has managed to decouple their growth from emissions. Some optimists say that “green growth” could even be bigger than just shaping an economy. They say it is like the start of a system transformation such as the invention of the railroad or the Internet. Nobody today can really foresee how these green systems will transform the way we live and work. However, there is also the fear that green economies will lead to the growth of new protectionism and we could see successive rounds of negotiations much like the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trades) rounds that go on endlessly.

In Rio this June, a roadmap will be decided upon and these decisions will impact our long-term future. It is a critical moment for us all.

Tariq Banuri explained that with rising oil prices and food prices higher than ever before, coupled with a global financial crisis there is no end in sight. “Then you have climate change as well — people are aware now that some decisions have to be made”.

To explain what is happening now, he took us back to 2008 when oil prices jumped from under $25 a barrel to $140 a barrel. Along with oil prices, food prices jumped as well and caused riots. “Actually what happened in 2008 also happened before in the 1970s. The world changed in the 1970s — we thought energy (from fossil fuels) would become cheaper and more plentiful but there was a discontinuity. In the 1970s the US reached peak oil and that is when OPEC came in. Back then the problem (of high oil prices) was solved through the process of increased indebtedness of developing countries and public sector reforms (cutting social services, etc). This resulted in a massive increase in inequality.”

Mechanisms were put in place to squeeze poor countries through structural adjustments and this is a trend that is not going to reverse from 2008 onwards. “Our development is under threat and we have to realise that there is no energy left in the system. We need to find other mechanisms to restart our growth”, says Tariq Banuri, referring to developing countries in particular.

“I believe the key is cheap, renewable energy’. He ruled out nuclear energy, saying that producing cheap nuclear energy “is not possible in our time frame,” and especially after what happened at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. “The cost of nuclear energy has gone through the roof”.

At Rio, he sees the big emerging economies like China, Brazil, South Africa and probably India ganging up together to “use their clout to get the maximum energy left in the system”. Weaker countries, like Pakistan, won’t be able to do this and they will “squeeze us out. The larger developing countries want to get as much as they can before the doors shut”, he explained. The US and Europe will want the same and smaller states who are dependent on their foreign aid will just go along with them.

“Our country, I am afraid, has no strategy. I think our strategy at Rio should be about collaborating with other developing countries in the same boat as us to look for affordable and abundant energy. Energy should be our mantra.”

Tariq sees a future in which more markets will be liberalised, with a pricing of natural resources and the growth of carbon markets and an end to subsidies. “They will tinker with prices and purely market based policies mean more bumps on the road ahead, which will start hitting us harder and harder”. He explained further, “If green economy means putting a price on everything, that should not be acceptable to us. If it means access to more energy and cheaper energy then it is OK”.

“We need to protect our state”, was his bottom line. What can Pakistan do given that our current energy options are limited, expensive and increasingly unpredictable? According to Tariq Banuri, “Pakistan needs development partners to identify and develop affordable and predictable options, like renewable energy (solar, wind and biomass).

Solar costs are already coming down — within the last 10 years they have been brought down to Rs3 per unit. China is closing old coal plants and investing in renewable energy like solar and wind energy. They could partner with low cost labour in Pakistan in these areas.

Chinese costs are already lower than elsewhere.” For those who remain sceptical, he clarified, “Fossil fuels are not disappearing — but we need a longer term strategy that gives us access to affordable energy”.