THE latest bi-annual study by the Planning Commission on ‘Change in Cost of Food Basket’ is a real eye-opener for every concerned citizen and policymaker alike.

According to the study, the cost of 2,150 calories, the minimum food requirement for human survival, has increased from Rs960 to Rs1,790 — more than 86 per cent in the last four years — between 2007-08 and 2011-12.

The study further tells that the cost of minimum food basket has also shown a consistent increase since 2007 and its price, based on retail prices of December 2011, has gone up from Rs1,000 to Rs1,790 — a massive increase of 79 per cent.

During the same period, the price of wheat (read staple food) has increased by 67 per cent — from Rs18 per kilogram in 2007-08 to current Rs30 per kilogram.. Similarly, prices of pulses have increased by 71 per cent, sugar by a staggering 147 per cent, followed by ghee 57 per cent and meat 94 per cent.

The most pathetic part of the food situation, as shown by the study, is that the government has not been caught unaware. In the last four years, every relevant international institution has warned Pakistan of severe food crisis.

A report in 2009 by a British company — Maplecroft, which provides risk intelligence service for businesses — ranked Pakistan 11th most food stressed country in the world. In an indexation of 148 countries, only states like Angola, Haiti, Mozambique, Burundi and Congo preceded Pakistan.

In 2010, the Global Hunger Index, developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), fired another warning shot when it ranked Pakistan at position number 19 — a classification reflecting ‘serious hunger’ threat. Pakistan skipped ‘alarming’ category by just one point.’

In their periodic reports, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP) and the World Bank have also been warning Pakistan of serious food crisis if nothing is done about it.

The FAO definition — “it ( food security) exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Thus, the supply side remains crucial in ensuring security, especially in free markets operating on demand-supply mechanism. Any shortage gives the free market an excuse to send prices soaring, taking essentials out of the reach of common man.

Thus, the concept of security flows from the production side. However, marketing also plays a crucial role because its failure can turn the entire concept to an exercise in self-defeat. But if production goes missing, no marketing strategy can ensure security.

Pakistan’s failure on both counts has been reinforcing each other to create food security risks. The failure on agricultural front is, however, unpardonable. It is largely blessed with all natural assets — land, helpful weather spread over four seasons and, at least so far, sufficient water — for ensuring food for all, yet it is failing to properly feed its own population.

Much better horizontal and vertical agriculture growth is needed very quickly. For example, its cultivable area is stuck at 550 million acres, for the last few decades.

All agriculture experts in the country agree that it can be enhanced by at least 30 per cent if more water is ensured. One can imagine the amount of additional produce if another 165 million acres added to that tally.

The waste-land that can be brought under cultivation by treating for different ailments — is almost 20 million acres. Punjab alone has four million such acres. In such circumstances, where does the failure lie? Not hard to imagine.

Potential for vertical growth is even enormous. The agriculture experts maintain that research improved seed can make 25—50 per cent difference in production, and cultural practices (extension service) another 35 per cent. Water alone can take production up by 50 per cent. It only goes to prove food production can be increased by 100 per cent by simply improving its management practices.

Add around 30 to 40 per cent post-harvest loss it makes things worse. If the country can save, say 50 per cent of what goes waste simply because of failure to build infrastructure for preservation, the effect on poverty alleviation and food security would be tremendous. It is time for the policymakers to start planning in that direction.

Pakistan has the potential not only to properly feed its own population at affordable prices, but also to supply countries that import food to feed their increasing population. Agriculture has under-performed, it needs some catching up.