For comprehensive security
REPORTEDLY, in the 1960s, while reviewing arrangements for the protection of China’s nascent nuclear arsenal, Mao Zedong observed: “Security must be 100 per cent; it cannot be 99 per cent.” Obviously, as the events of 2011 illustrated, Pakistan cannot pretend to even remotely enjoy such complete security postulated by Chairman Mao.
The undetected Abbottabad incursion, the Mehran base destruction and the Salala border attack, as well as the regular terrorist toll, are vivid indications of the tattered state of Pakistan’s security. This steady deterioration is no doubt demoralising for Pakistani civilians and soldiers, yet it is not entirely surprising.
For 60 years, Pakistan’s military capabilities and deployments were designed to deter and repel the threat from India. Today, largely as a result of our own tactical and strategic mistakes, the threats to Pakistan’s security have become multidimensional and complex, internal and external, emanating from foe and friend, east and west. The gaps in Pakistan’s security cannot be addressed or overcome solely by the armed forces. National security is the business of the entire nation.What is required is the formulation and implementation of a comprehensive and multifaceted military, political, diplomatic and economic strategy to provide 100 per cent security to Pakistan. This strategy should address the five categories of threats facing Pakistan: Al Qaeda and affiliated terrorism, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Baloch Liberation Army insurgencies, the threat emanating from the US-Nato military presence and the predicament in Afghanistan, India’s conventional arms build-up, and the preservation of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Considerable progress has been made, largely due to Pakistan’s contribution and collaboration with the US, to destroy the leadership and command structures of the ‘original’ Al Qaeda initially located in Afghanistan and evidently pushed into Pakistan after the post-9/11 US intervention in Afghanistan. Despite frequent US insinuations, there is a broad consensus in Pakistan to eliminate these foreign terrorists from Pakistani soil. Unless, due to the current estrangement with Pakistan, US-Pakistan cooperation is terminated, the goal of defeating Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan (unlike in Yemen, Somalia and elsewhere) is achievable.
Combating the TTP and the BLA will be more challenging. While the grievances that led to the emergence of the two groups were domestic, there is compelling evidence that these groups are being utilised by Pakistan’s adversaries – the Afghan and Indian intelligence. Some in Pakistan are convinced that these groups have the benediction of the US and some other western countries also. Success against both groups will involve military operations, political negotiations and adroit diplomacy.
A single-track approach, military or political, will fail, as in the past. A generous and wise response to genuine Baloch grievances can help to end the insurgency there. There is much less space for compromise with the core of the TTP. But this group’s components are disparate, with different local and ideological agendas, which can be exploited to divide and defeat this insurgency.
The threat posed to Pakistan by the US-Nato military intervention in Afghanistan was inherent but initially blurred by the initial successes of counterterrorist cooperation. Pakistan has been significantly destabilised by this 11-year Afghan conflict. The Abbottabad raid and the Salala border attack are only the most visible signs of a tactical alliance that is fast turning into a strategic nightmare.
In accordance with the Pakistan parliament’s guidelines, measures can be taken to enhance border security, such as no-fly zones and border fencing. The larger danger arises from the likelihood that a continued US military presence in Afghanistan will prolong and exacerbate a civil war; effectively divide the country along north-south ethnic lines, and spread the threat of ethnic division to Pakistan.
It is thus in Pakistan’s interest, when resuming engagement with the US, to bring about the orderly, honourable but full withdrawal of US-Nato forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible. Simultaneously, Pakistan should secure the cooperation of Iran, China and Russia to help evolve an inter-Afghan political solution which could end the civil war and enable complete US-Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the traditional threat from India’s conventional military capabilities is also growing. The current improvement in Indo-Pakistan atmospherics should not lead Islamabad to forget that India is now the world’s largest arms importer. Its shopping list includes: 120 strike aircraft; nuclear submarines; AWACs; Anti-Ballistic Missiles; satellite and space capabilities. It is vital for Pakistan to retain the capacity to resist and repel India by conventional means.
In the absence of credible conventional defence, Pakistan will be obliged to rely almost exclusively on its strategic capabilities, significantly lowering the threshold for escalating a conventional conflict to the nuclear level. Pakistan can acquire conventional capabilities to neutralise the Indian build-up, at a much lower cost through cooperation with China.
Last, but not least, Pakistan needs to preserve the credibility of nuclear deterrence. Absent a secure and usable nuclear weapons capability, Pakistan would probably have been at war with India in 1987, 1990, 1999 and 2002, and today would face threats of military strikes like Iran. There is no more vital national security objective than safeguarding this capability from destruction, sabotage or hostile takeover.
The threat to Pakistan’s strategic capabilities has been heightened by the presumption that it emanates now from not only India but also the US and its allies.
The credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence against India could be eroded in three ways: first, Pakistan’s offensive and defensive capabilities could over time be neutralised by India’s access to nuclear and other advanced technologies which are denied to Pakistan; second, India’s nuclear weapons arsenal could become quantitatively much larger than Pakistan’s because, with fuel supplies for its civilian reactors being provided by outside powers, India will be able to devote its entire indigenous fuel to its nuclear weapons, and third, Pakistan’s nuclear and strategic capabilities could be destroyed in a pre-emptive conventional or nuclear strike.
To counter these possibilities, Pakistan’s diplomacy should secure access to the latest technologies, by any means available; refuse to accept any agreement to halt fissile material production, and enhance the alert status of its nuclear weapons and acquire a second-strike capability — hardened missile silos and nuclear submarines.
There is a growing belief in Islamabad that the more immediate threat to Pakistan’s strategic capabilities emanates from the US.
Its media and officials have painted scenarios in which Pakistan’s nuclear weapons fall into the hands of ‘Islamic radicals’. Some believe that on these grounds, the US could seek to legitimise, perhaps through the Security Council, the seizure or destruction of Pakistan’s nuclear and strategic capabilities.
US officials have asserted that they have contingency plans for the takeover of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in an emergency.
Pakistan will need to continue projecting the safety and security of its nuclear weapons, threaten retaliation against any attempts at takeover or sabotage, and seek credible and open guarantees from the US that it will not attempt any such action.
The task of formulating and executing a strategy for Pakistan’s comprehensive security should be entrusted to a high level group of diplomats and military personnel. Even if 100 per cent security cannot be assured, at least Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders should make a 100 per cent effort to promote comprehensive security for Pakistan.
The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.
If current trends in Pakistan continue Pakistan will destroy itself. Only way Pakistan can prosper is education to all and elimination of terrorist infrastructure.
An interesting need. The good thing is that now our anaysts and strategists are openly writing hat India is behind the insurgency in Balochistan and helping the TTp with the help of the rogue Afghans intelligence agencies. Indians should read this with as bitter medicine.
Good article we Pakistanis need a new start However think about following
What happened to Libya after it declared that it does not possess any weapons of mass destruction
Why India does not offer to make a start to solve problems like Kashmir etc
Why US does not conveniently allow us access to Nuclear Energy under IAEA safeguards for making electricity and then build confidence like India
Yes we are unlucky that every Civil and military leader we have had us either spineless or sell-able as they have not concentrated to solve governance issues of this country
Remaining problem is us all citizens of Pakistan who do not have the guts to stand up for truth and justice.
Vote good people to the parliament, hold them accountable, they should not be able to come back to their constituencies if they do not deliver
Ask them to reform and de politisize Police , Ask MR Iftikhar Choudary to stop singing his laurels and deliver few hangings for the corrupt
I may sound angry but OUR PROBLEM IS GOVERNANCE US – Can we do it or should we hire somebody to do it for us
India US are all competitor states nobody is a cousin we have to be strong to gain respect otherwise they are more than willing to cut us and shape us as it suits them.
So please wake up and stop making excuses as it is we who are bad first internally and we can sort that then we can be strong and good
eREst anida
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The author claims "there is compelling evidence that these groups are being utilised by Pakistan’s adversaries – the Afghan and Indian intelligence" where is the evidence ???? Why dont you share ? The fact is this that your own misdeeds are haunting you and there isn't even a shred of an evidence of Indian complicity in Balochistan.
Also it is same old story of Pakistan being bound by all the good intentions and genuine concerns, while its adversaries are evil.I wonder why all the former Diplomats become so wise once they are no longer in office.
This approach is outdated and obsolete. Pakistan needs a new vision to survive.
It is strange that the real security threats like unemployment, malgovernance, corruption, military take overs and total neglect to socio economic uplift of millions has not been given a single line by one of our most brilliant minds.. He has been fighting those issues at global forums. India how much more we can waste to counter her. A cohesive, economically vibrant Pakistan has the best chance of survival and countering all internal and external security threats.
Just goes to show that people who are considered brilliant in the context may not necessarily be brilliant after all. Some have a habit of creating a smoke screen over real issues to suit their very own agenda. Our author here appears to be one such person.
If you get rid of your terrorists, then nobody would be interested in attacking you, and you can get rid of your nukes, and prosper. The solution is very simple, but you cannot see it. No other country has "sinister designs" on Pakistan. Much of the rest of the works wants to be able to just ignore Pakistan, and get on with their lives. Like they do with Madagascar, for example.
A very comprehensive article. all the factors raised by writer are real and needs to be consider. i want to ask a single question that who is pioneer and inventor of all threats and organization s mentioned by AKRAm sb.
There is no more vital security objective than to feed our people, educate our children,to give them clean water, to provide them health facilities and give them decent life. Sadly enough the General kiyani seems to better aware of the modern concept of the security when he said that security depends on happiness of our people. We cannot be secure unless our people are happy. Munir Akram sahib I can challenge you that we do not need nuclear weapons . They are useless. We need to provide social and economic security to our people and no power on
earth can do us any harm. Please throw into the sea the theories which you read in your university days. The world has changed since then!
Agreed that we do not need these nuclear weapons. Now go and convince the Indians next door to get rid of their nukes first and stop the frantic arms shopping. I guess India too needs to understand that the world has changed.
Is there anything that is going to come out of banging your head against a hard rock? Well dear, that's exactly what you are trying to do. People such as this author have convinced themselves that the sun rises from the West. That's what they are going to believe. You may try to challenge them as much as you want. Good luck.
Another yesterdays man mouthing yesterdays ideas, refusing to accept that Bangladesh was born of Pakistan's folly. India has never attacked Pakistan or any other country. Pakistan and India need to accept LOC, Pakistan should ditch supporting its "strategic assets" and spend the money to feed and educate its poor and India should focus on infrastructure and its poor too. Then all these puffed up threats will disappear.
Governments cause people to fear external enemies in order to keep them in chains.
This is nothing less than extortion at the highest levels of government.
Sanjay Saksena can't be more correct on this issue. As the author in his article has quoted four distinct incidents when a war with India was averted simply because of strategic weapons. The real danger to Pakistan's security is internal. Differences between federating units will encourage secessionist movements and BLA is an example of that. As a result of Islamiation of society during Gen Zia's rule, the entire complexion of society has changed, the worst affected is our educational system which is imparting hatred against people of other religions. It has given rise to violent sectarianism, the rise of TTP is a consequence of such a tunnel vision. We urgently need to take measures to restrict the role of religion to personal faith only.
Very enlightening article. In most of the cases, threat from India is downplayed by so called intellectuals. This article very audaciously accentuates India's sinister designs to subjugate Pakistan through military means, saboteurs [insiders], media war to malign Pakistan in the comity of nations as a terrorist state. US on the other hand, supplements India's insinuations, gradually building up a case proving unstable Pakistan incapable of maintaining secure nuclear arsenal. Afghanistan is another so called Islamic-brother, toeing Indian line-of-action, engineered against Pakistan. In this gruesome situation, there are internal foreign-baked terrorists, bent upon undermining country's foundations to cause an implosion. TTP, BLA and scattered agents of foreign intelligence agencies: CIA, RAW, MOSAD etc. It is pertinent for many to think that reduction in military budget will be a self-inflicted disaster. Our military preparedness is defensive not offensive, compared to India, dolling out more than 100 billion dollars annually while Pakistan is confined to 05 billion dollars only. Besides, internally we need to set our house in order, ridding of current political class and privileged bureaucratic stooges caked with corruption. Use of all persuasive means to recompense for the wrongs done to many and if nothing results, use of fierce force is inevitable as the very last resort. A solid strategy to counter India's media campaign against Pakistan is also needed. We need to be on the mend internally and be mindful of external threats also.
Agree with your comment…besides maintaining conventional deterrent measures for security, we are in a strong need of taming and guiding our media according to our needs. Media indeed is a very important and beneficial tool to carry out agendas successfully, it can be learnt and seen by foreign countries.
Munir Akram is one of the more intelligent doyens of Pakistan's establishment; his words are a useful insight into the their current perspective. So, its heartening to see that the threat from TTP & Al-Qaeda is at least prominent now on the establishment's radar. Also encouraging to see a mention of 'genuine Baloch grievances'. However, nearly half of the piece is dedicated to the threat from India and all the potential threat to nuclear assets. That remains the priority. Weren't these "assets' supposed to make us safer rather than increasing the threat level?
I agree with Shehzad. The sooner Pakistan realises who its real enemy is, its better for its future. India bashing will not serve any purpose
Ignoring reality is not an option.
what is difference between strategic and conventional defense?
Well Zubair, In layman's language, strategic weapons means all those weapons which are non- nuclear and a war where non nucear weapons are used is called as Conventonal War however if a country resorts to using its nuclear weapons or biological weapons as it was used by Saddam hussein against Kurds and Iran during the Iraq-Iran war which lasted for almost 10 years, it is called an unconventional war. The word strategic is much broader e.g. The Pakistan strategic command being led by General Kidwai if I am correct manages all the nuclear weapons of Pakistan and if the need arises he is going to take a call whether the nukes should be used or not.
The real threat to the Pakistani nation is not India or US, it is in fact, the excessive Islamisation of the nation which has allowed religion to permeate each and every institution of state, each and every department of the government, each and every aspect of society and polity. What is needed is urgend dislamisation which means reducing or eliminating the role of religion in non relligious spheres of human activity. The process of dislimisation is not going to be easy, but unless Pakistan can reduce the role of religion in its society, the nation will go steadily downhill.
I agree with Sanjay Saksena's comments.In Pakistan there has been enormous shift in PseudoI-Islamisation and hypocracy ,which has harmed the country.There is no tolerance amongst the people which is not Islamic.
.In each and every so-called Muslim country there has been deterioration of Islamic traditions and values . There has been polarisation of Pakistani society into hard core secterianism.The society has lost its direction and has becom more extremist.
.The seeds were sown by General Zia in late seventies who politicised Islam according to his own wishes.The religious parties have misguided the society and each one has it's own agenda.They are also responsible for the mess Pakistan is in today.
The only way to get out of this mess is to let each faith to practice their own faith and this comes when you follow the principles of Islam in a true spirit.
I agree with your comment. Look at the western countries and India. Western countries are christian. But their govt: policies are secular.India is declared secular country..All these countries got stability and progress.
"I like these calls to prayer. With their heads down people can't see where we are putting their gold."