THE late-night statement following the meeting of the Defence Committee of the Cabinet appears to have signalled that in principle Pakistan has decided to reopen the Nato/Isaf overland supply route that has been closed since November. The decision couched in diplomatic language – the DCC called upon the government to “conclude the ongoing negotiation on the new terms and conditions for resumption of” the supply route – will, it is hoped, mark a breakthrough in Pakistan-US ties that have been caught in a state of paralysis for months. Also important, the DCC “welcomed” the invitation to the Chicago conference and “fully endorsed” President Zardari’s decision to attend, suggesting that Pakistan is injecting fresh impetus in its attempts to engage the world at large on the future course in Afghanistan. So what happens next?
First, an endorsement of the DCC’s message of last night from the corps commanders’ conference to be held today will be important. That will send a message that the political government and the security establishment are both behind the decision to reopen the supply routes and so undercut the opposition’s opportunistic attempts to paint the imminent reopening of the supply routes as a capitulation by the PPP-led government to a US administration that it is somehow beholden to. If a strong endorsement of the DCC’s decisions is not forthcoming from the corps commanders today it will only serve to strengthen the political opposition’s hand and make the delicate task of normalising ties with the US all the more difficult.
Next, starting with the Chicago summit, Pakistan has to build a case that it is part of the solution in Afghanistan and not a part of the problem, a perception that events of the past few months may have reinforced. But events have also paradoxically given Pakistan a fresh opportunity. The US election cycle has meant that no major decisions on Afghanistan are expected before November while the importance of Chicago as a defining moment has receded after the Quran-burning incident, the killings of Afghan civilians by an American soldier and the apparent collapse of discussions with the Taliban. But if Pakistan is to take advantage of the unexpected space and time it has got, it must also settle once and for all prickly issues with the US – drone strikes, coalition funds and border coordination, among others. For that to happen, however, the political government and security establishment will need more boldness and resolve than they have demonstrated so far.