When charisma fails to deliver votes
– Illustration by Eefa Khalid/Dawn.com
The corporate genie has granted you innumerable wishes, not just three. It might have dampened the drama, somewhat, but if you are an ardent consumer you will have unlimited fun. It can bring you picture-perfect apples from New Zealand, piping-hot fried chicken from Kentucky (US) and whatever else your heart may desire.
For the urban consumers of politics in Pakistan, generally, and Punjab, particularly, hunger cannot be defined in such terms and earthly edibles therefore guarantee no satisfaction. Dying for some real excitement, they are craving for a new brand named ‘change’ – a serving of spiced up, up-sized elections is what they are demanding. For them, the ‘deal’ comprises a designer political party for starters, corruption-free candidates as appetizers, a fully-principled campaign with some ideological toppings as the main course and for dessert: a raunchy prime minister, who could send the hearts of the world leaders racing. But who could that be? Imran Khan Inc., for Khan is a charismatic personality, who has already delivered two miracles: The Cup and the Hospital. Now our urban middle class wants him to cast the same miraculous spell on politics, and he would finally be canonised as their saint prime minister. Can he do that? That’s the most frequently asked question that every star-gazer, fortune-teller, tarot-card reader is busy answering these days. They all have a counter in the famous ‘media street’ of politics bazaar. I, too, have one. Taking on the role of a gypsy, when I asked the 80-million-voter question, my glass ball retorted that Khan had already been granted two opportunities to get his charisma cashed into political capital. This, I am told, is what followed:
1997: The year Khan launched his party Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (1996), the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was at its lowest-ever ebb. Months later, President Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari dismissed the government of his own party, following the assassination of the prime minister’s brother. The PPP voter was depressed and dejected. The party had received 7.5 million, 7.8 million and 7.6 million votes respectively in the last three elections held in 1988, 1990 and 1993. Its tally nose-dived to 4.1 million. Arch rivals, first named Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) and then Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), however, were unable to capitalise on the situation and PML-N’s tally increased only by 0.7 million (in 1997). The heavy two-third mandate that Nawaz Sharif lifted was not a result of a steep rise in his voters, but to a sharp decline in his rival party’s. PPP’s so-called die-hard voters had either concluded that it was futile to vote and stayed at home on polling day or came out to try other options but PML-N. Jamaat-e-Islami, after a frustrating defeat in 1993 of its new avatar, Pakistani Islamic Front, decided to boycott the 1997 elections. President Leghari banned all types of advertisements (hoardings, posters, banners) to meet the demand of making election campaigns affordable for the proverbial common man.
There could have been no better time than this for a new ‘revolutionary’ party to take the parliament by, ahem, a ‘tsunami.’ Khan probably thought so too. His party put up candidates on 134 of the country’s then 207 National Assembly seats, just behind PPP’s 160 and PML-N’s 176 candidates.
The results, however, were disastrous. PTI could not win even a single seat. None of its candidates could even qualify as a runner-up. Half of its candidates (71) received less than 2,000 votes each. Only two (NA-21, Swat-1 and NA-53, Mianwali-1) surpassed the ten-thousand mark and both seats belonged to Imran Khan. He, in fact, was a candidate from nine constituencies but his only substantial performance was in his ancestral Niazi homeland where he polled 10,716 votes, standing third – so much for the rhetoric against biradari-ism (brotherhood). PTI, in total, received 314,820 votes or 1.65 per cent of the total votes polled in the country.
2002: Maybe the 1997 elections came too early for the nascent party and it did not have sufficient time to prepare itself for the challenge. Five years later in 2002, the situation again was quite favourable for a new player. The General had forced the two main protagonists, Benazir and Nawaz, out of the field. The headless parties were drubbed by small-time players from all sides. The electorate was rejuvenated by a heavy injection of 18 million new voters and most of them were close to 18 years of age. They had seen Khan win them the coveted 1992 Cricket World Cup in their childhood.
PTI was represented by 94 candidates in the 2002 elections. All except one failed miserably. Sixty-seven of them polled less than 2,000 votes each and none except one qualified as runner-up. The party received a total of 242,472 votes, which was 72,000 less than 1997 figure. In terms of percentage, PTI’s share was 0.8 per cent of the total polled votes or half of its previous share in polled votes. Khan himself contested from four constituencies and won on the Niazi area seat of Mianwali. He was the runner-up on a Lahore seat as well. Khan received 101,407 votes on the four seats. Only one other candidate of his party received votes in excess of 10,000. Votes received by the Captain, personally, were 42 per cent of his party’s total votes.
So the hot stud proved to be a dud.
My glass ball concluded with a villainous laughter that charisma earned in a specific sector (sports, film, social work) comes in a particular currency that cannot be freely exchanged into another of your liking, not at least in the political market. If he couldn’t twice, how can he do it the third time? Punjabi urban middle class meanwhile have to make do by just ‘changing’ channels on their new flat screen HD TV sets or maybe also the brand of the potato chips bag in their hand.
*Sources for polling data: The Election Commission of Pakistan and National Assembly Elections in Pakistan, 1970-2008
The writer works with Punjab Lok Sujag, a research and advocacy group that has a primary interest in understanding governance and democracy.
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
I don’t understand who the hell are these people sitting in a room and analyze big matters. Like many I am 38 and never casted my vote I had never been associated with any party but this time I will make sure that ma and all my family members must cast vote to PTI. After all we have to be answerable to Almighty.
Those who think that IK's vision is just an illusion so stay at home with their constipated thinking, let people decide – who have already decided.
On the other hand I think for many cornered writers this is a way of attracting people… poor/cheap way of publicity.
Good Luck Imran Khan and all the best PTI.
My advice to all Imran Khan critics: go vote for Mr. Zardari and Mr. Sharif and Mr. Altaf hussain for the 20th time. They deserve to be given another chance, right?
Regardless what they say, and make a mountain out of a molehill. For the first time in my life I will be going to polling station, to cast vote for PTI and Imran Khan.
We have the change of $62 billions…We are Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf
absolutey BIASED and Lafafa journalism
Look his last 4 lines, does that make sense ?
the writer seems to be BIASED and Lafafa of N league in punjab.
proof of this is in his conclusive lines
""If he couldn’t twice, how can he do it the third time? Punjabi urban middle class meanwhile have to make do by just ‘changing’ channels on their new flat screen HD TV sets or maybe also the brand of the potato chips bag in their hand.
""""
how non-sense his words that if one cannot do twice, how can he do 3rd time ???? Does anyone agree with this sense-less approach?
Lafafa journalists !
recently DAWN news seems also promoting these kind of writings and not even covered PTI Mass gathering in RWP on May 27, which shows clearly biased policy or under threatened policy in Karachi city by dehshatgards or may be seeking soem lafaffaas too from N on Malik Riaz.
What if IK wins and manages to post a surplus budget as he promises? He says he can manage over 4000 billion easily as people will trust the leader and pay taxes.What if this happens? Wont it change the whole scenario in Pakistan?
Moreover, I would rather vote for IK instead of even thinking about voting for Sharifs or Zardari. I cant even think about votinf for these mediocre self proclaimed leaders
Pity the nation whose people are sheep
And whose shepherds mislead them
Pity the nation whose leaders are liars
Whose sages are silenced
And whose bigots rule the airwaves
Pity the nation that raises not its voice
Except to praise conquerers
And acclaim the bully as hero
And aims to rule the world
By force and by torture
Pity the nation that knows
No other language but its own
And no other culture but its own
Pity the nation whose breath is money
And sleeps the sleep of the too well fed
Pity the nation oh pity the people
who allow their rights to erode
and their freedoms to be washed away
My country, tears of thee
Sweet land of liberty!
—Lawrence Ferlinghetti
Great article. Well researched.
There is one problem however with expert opinion they are mostly wrong at predicting the future.
No one who saw Obama lose his congress election in Chicago against Bobby Rush would ever have predicted that this guy will go on to become the President of the United States. When Mr Jinnah left politics and went away to live in England who would have thought that this man will be the only man in History to change the map of the world and create a new country and a new Nation( "Jinnah did all three").
Imran is honest just like Edhi. That's something every one agrees. And that's what counts.
Perhaps your crystal ball needs to rely a little less heavily on stats and a little more on memory. Nobody ever considered the PTI a serious force before this. Admittedly, he may not sweep the elections but comparing this time to the previous elections is ludicrous!
your crystal ball is going to choke you this time. IRI Survey says PTI is number ONE. your masters and investors are NOT happy about it. nor do you look happy. Rather you look intimidated by IK because you are part of status quo.
Another one of those paid articles. If we go by the theory that old statistics of failures always translate in to the same in future, nothing will get done in this world. I was surprised by a post from an old friend who had tried to draw similarities between IK and Mr Jinnah. Both were born in affluent families, both were consided failures or at best mediocres at the start of there professional careers (Jinnah as a lawyer and IK as a fast bowler), both foreign educated and included in the Universitiy's hall of fame, both suffered miserable defeats in Election but surged back(Jinnah in 1937 and IK in 1997),both had failed marriages with reverted muslim women , the change in political fortunes for both is marked by a show of strentgh in Lahore at exactly the same place, Minare–Pakistan, formerly Manto Park. Too mant co-incidences combined
Great observations.
Also both learned to speak Urdu.
Mr. Imran Khan Deserves a chance, i have still no idea as to how could people vote for money launderers back in 2007!! i still remember people in the news yelling Go Musharraf Go!! OK! He went! Now what ya'll got, Did ya'll Get the ROTI KUPRA MUKAAN.??!
AwwH! Thank you for telling us! And a great round of applause for your stats too. But why you didn't mention about the malfunctions of Election Commission of Pakistan. And handicapped media in the 90's to early 2001!!! I never have given any credit to Gen Mushi but for this particular thing he did a wonderful job. To bring reforms in media regularity acts. Now our Media Vibrant, Now people are more aware. Their eyes are open and its has changed now. Please read an independent research thesis on corruption and black money "Capitalism Achilles Heel" by Raymond W. Baker. From page 76 to 87 he mentioned about Bhutto's legacy Late BB G, unfortunately still Alive Zardari and Sharif brothers!
If some one wants the book can contact me at " createananimation@gmail.com"