THE decision by the government to not appeal against the prime minister’s conviction has raised more questions than it has answered, not the least of which is, what is the government’s plan? Privately, circles close to the prime minister suggest that three things were at stake in Prime Minister Gilani’s trial: conviction, sentencing and disqualification. His sentence has already been served and his conviction has no chance of being overturned on appeal, leaving just the matter of disqualification to be decided. With the Speaker of the National Assembly’s ruling, the prime minister’s team believes, the issue has gone from being one of the chief executive of the federation vs the Supreme Court to one of parliament vs the SC. Should the judiciary decide to push the issue of Mr Gilani’s fate any further, the government will hide behind parliament. Left unsaid, if this is indeed a plan hatched by the prime minister’s office, is the additional benefit to Mr Gilani: he stops being the centre of everyone’s focus and some of the political heat directed at him at the moment will dissipate.

However, not appealing against the SC’s conviction of the prime minister does seem to go against the grain of everything this government has done since December 2009, when the NRO judgment was handed down. Until now, the government has grabbed with both hands any opportunity, legal or political, to delay decisive action for not writing the so-called Swiss letter. But by refusing to appeal, the government has left open the possibility that the Speaker’s ruling in favour of the prime minister will be challenged in court and an adverse order could quickly be handed down, transferring the matter of the PM’s disqualification to the Election Commission of Pakistan. Had the government appealed the PM’s conviction, it could have argued that the issue of the prime minister’s disqualification could not be taken up until the appeal process was over — buying more time for the government.

So, has the government made a mistake? Given the political shrewdness of the men who are believed to be behind the decision to not appeal — the prime minister and the president — it seems they have their eyes on something else. Could an early election, sometime later this year, be on the cards? If that were the case, the government wouldn’t really need to buy more time with the SC. Early elections would unquestionably be a good idea. Once the budget is unveiled, the country could get what it needs to rejuvenate the democratic process.