POPULISM is set to trump prudence in the budget exercises in the election year. The trend will probably be more pronounced in Sindh where the stakes of the ruling party, PPP, are higher than in other provinces.

Sources in provincial economic departments, who are part of the budget-making team, asserted that the best minds in the government were applied to put together a financial deal in the upcoming budget 2012-13. It is expected to win ownership of PPP legislators as well as the coalition partners in Sindh Assembly.

“The expenditure side will be contained to make a tax-free balanced budget possible,” said a senior member trying to dispel the impression of fiscal adventurism in Sindh for political gains. He, however, admitted that there had been pressure from legislators for allocations for projects in their constituencies to woo voters.

While the provincial finance minister and the finance secretary were reluctant to share any information related to budget with media at this stage, some leading lights agreed to discuss it informally.

“We are burning midnight lamps to give to people what they deserve: a soft budget that may not add to their misery even if it fails to ease the economic burden significantly,” said a leader who wished anonymity.

He said the province had been trying hard to cope with the added responsibilities in the social sector post-18th Amendment and streamline collection of sales tax on services.

Many may find it surprising, but officers of the finance department maintain that the province was financially in a fairly comfortable position.

No one in the government contested the view that the quality of economic governance did not improve under democracy. The indicators of human wellbeing have not improved. They, however, defended the government for containing the human sufferings with the help of civil society so that post-flood tragedies such as outbreak of epidemics were avoided.

“We slashed development budget as resources had to be diverted to flood relief. Over the last four years about Rs350 billion has been spent on development in the province that comes to an average of Rs70-75 billion a year. Has that brought about a change? Well it should have but frankly I am not quite sure about that,” a top official at the planning and development department said at an informal interview in his office in Karachi.

“It might be difficult to back the observation of general wellbeing in Sindh with verifiable data but despite many negatives, the PPP rule gives some sense of entitlement to the people of this province,” an officer, who travels throughout the province extensively, observed amidst numerous anecdotes reflecting the mindset of the rulers and their inclination to corruption.

Reports suggest last minute adjustments in the core document that was presented recently at a meeting to the chief minister.

The most difficult aspect of the budget-making in the province was to neutralise the political pressure and let the economic wisdom prevail, some budget-makers believed. “More so because of clear rural-urban divide along ethnic lines,” a leader said.

The friction between the planning and finance departments is natural but it is said to have been amicably resolved to suit the finance wing that controls the purse strings.

Initially planning and development department had demanded Rs185 billion for 2012-13. The finance department, however, felt the volume would be difficult to fund and suggested to bring the development budget within Rs150 billion.

According to insiders Rs22 billion will be earmarked for districts governments.

Taking a cue from the federal government, focus of the budget will be on agriculture, livestock, water and drainage, education and health.

In the budget the Special Initiatives Unit will get a major boost and get Rs31 billion. Similarly the allocation for projects under priority programmes will touch Rs10 billion.

A substantial increase is expected in allocations for education (Rs12bn); health (Rs1bn); livestock (Rs2.5bn); agriculture (Rs4.8bn); water and drainage (Rs5bn); statistical and economic research (Rs2bn); and transport and communications Rs13bn.

Besides, the food sector is expected to receive Rs400mn; fisheries Rs1100mn; forest, wildlife and CDA Rs850mn; industries Rs1200mn; mines and minerals Rs600mn; coal and energy Rs8bn; physical planning and housing Rs6bn; sports and youth affairs Rs590mn; culture Rs4bn; tourism Rs240mn; information and archives Rs150mn; Auqaf Rs320mn; minorities Rs149mn; social welfare Rs200mn; women development Rs400mn; environment Rs230mn; special packages Rs13bn; rural development Rs415mn and devolved projects Rs5bn. —Afshan Subohi