What is in the deal?

From the Newspaper | | 10th July, 2012
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WHAT is being spun by Pakistani officials as a great diplomatic triumph is in effect an embarrassing climbdown. All it took was an ambivalent ‘sorry’ to melt our lofty claims of ‘honour’ and ‘sovereignty’.

After seven months of confrontation, Pakistan last week agreed to reopen the supply routes for the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan ending a bitter stand-off with the US.

The supply trucks got into action hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a telephone call to her Pakistani counterpart read out a calibrated statement saying, “we are sorry for the losses suffered by the Pakistani military”.

Not only did Ms Clinton avoid using the word ‘apology’ which Pakistan has sought after the death of 24 of its soldiers in American air strikes in November, she was persistent with the US position that the incident was the result of mistakes by both sides.

The Pakistani foreign minister reportedly agreed with the US assertion which is quite contrary to the military inquiry committee report that the US attack on the Salala post was deliberate.

Not to forget that this conflicting version of the incident was the major reason behind Pakistan’s decision to close down Nato supply routes and to review its relationship with Washington.

Have we now rejected our own report? If so, should we not acknowledge our mistake publicly and apologise to the families of the soldiers killed in the incident? That also raises questions about the actions we have taken following the fatal strikes resulting in a complete breakdown of our relationship with the US.

Indeed, the US statement exacted after weeks of intense behind-the-scenes negotiations between the finance minister Hafeez Shaikh and the US undersecretary of state Thomas Nides was approved by the military leadership sitting on the Defence Committee of the Cabinet as well.

It was in the meeting between President Zardari and Hillary Clinton in Chicago in May that the two officials were assigned the job to thrash out a deal for the reopening of supply routes. In the following eight weeks, they worked on a compromise solution to what had become a very complex issue.

Only the top leadership including the president, the prime minister and the army chief were in the loop as the final text of the deal was discussed. With all the effort put into it, the agreed statement has nothing much to offer that will bring any dramatic change to the situation.

It is merely an acceptance of a status quo ante by Islamabad as Washington turned the screw on Pakistan. The government seemed to be so eager to wind up the deal that the US secretary of state was informed about the decision to reopen the ground lines of communication even before the DCC and cabinet meetings.

There was never even a remote possibility that the Obama administration would relent on the issue of apology especially as the presidential elections came close.

Besides, the environment in Washington has turned increasingly hostile to Pakistan with growing voices in the Congress for cutting off aid to the country. That has also toughened the White House stance.

The closest the US came to apologising was in February this year when Ms Clinton was to meet Pakistani foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar in London. There was a clear sign of softening in the White House stance. But then the Pakistani government advised Washington to hold on to it till the parliamentary policy review was completed.

Several months were then wasted in the parliamentary debate on guidelines for resetting bilateral relations. That prolonged process and the 35-point parliamentary recommendations made the negotiations more complex.

The window of opportunity was lost as the Obama administration took its apology off the table after the bloody attack in April on Kabul by the Haqqani network which American officials allege is being backed by the Pakistani military and the ISI.

In fact, Pakistan boxed itself into a corner from where it became extremely difficult for it to negotiate new terms of engagement with Washington.

The civil and military leadership watched helplessly as the CIA intensified drone strikes ignoring the parliamentary resolution that called for cessation of all such actions inside Pakistani territory.

Instead of taking a long-term strategic view of the critical relationship, Pakistani officials initially centred the negotiations on extracting higher transit fees on the supplies going through Pakistan.

That provoked a strong reaction not only from the US but also from other Nato countries. This mercenary approach diverted focus from other critical issues straining bilateral relations. The demand for a higher transit fees was finally dropped as part of the deal, but the damage had been done.

Similarly, an apology was important, but it was not the only issue the two countries needed to resolve to end the stalemate.

Salala was not the cause, but a symptom of a deep-rooted problem resulting in a complete breakdown in the relationship.

While the coercive policy of the Obama administration may have been a major reason for the estrangement, the miscalculations of the Pakistani civil and military leadership, a lack of a clear policy direction and ambivalence in cracking down on the Haqqani network in North Waziristan have also added to the widening trust gap.

The reopening of supply routes may help lower the temperature in bilateral relations, but the main sources of tension between Washington and Islamabad persist.

A double drone strike that killed some two dozen people in North Waziristan just a few days after the agreement does not give people much faith in the claims by the Pakistani officials that the relationship between the two countries are on the mend.
Relations will remain broken unless major policy differences are resolved.

The writer is an author and a journalist.

COMMENTS

  1. "If you tell a big enough Lie, and keep on repeating it, in the
    end people will come to believe it."
    — Josef Goebbels, Hitler's propaganda chief

  2. Zahid Hussain — please don't pour gasoline on the sputtering fire — let it go. It is good that the Pakistan US relations are on the mend and the civilian and the army are on the same page. No need for adding insult to injury — those needlessly wasted 7 months are not going to come back.

  3. Things have come to a normal, let us not distroy the right spirit which has developed by opening the transit route…for every body the violence will bring bad luck only….Pakistan will be the main loser …we pray for Pakistani people get rid from this terrible sufferings of terrorism….God bless you all

  4. Too many Pakistanis are either making fun of or reducing the USD 1 Bn dollars CSF funding as a piddly gift etc.

    Look at the flip side – imagine being in a Congressional hearing/subcommittee of external relations with Pak hearing, and imagine trying to state that you intend to send Pakistan 1000 Million USD tho' the objectives (good or bad) set including Haqqani protection supposedly by Pakistan defence etc continues. These sound easy to Pakistanis, but even in US, consensus is not a given , a lort of debate and infighting is on……..

    the idea is not to be a US apologist but to ensure one looks at the sheer value they are releasing and that this is hard earned taxpayer money from US citizens who are helping Pakistan. And, for a change, look at trying to reconcile and build on the relationship as against the conspiracy or hate theories currently in the air. And hit those who need to be hit, namely the terror infra in Pak qand in Afghanistan, not each otrher….. a safer Af Pak belt will be very good for Pakistan's stability too post 2014, a fact which i am sure is not lost on Pakistanis, but is overlooked as it seems to be in the distant future, not right now.

  5. One factor which is being overlooked is the public sentiment in Pakistan against US after the Davis affair, Abottabad and Salala. The government had to indulge in some posturing to assuage the hurt feelings amongst the people. A stand off between US and Pakistan is not in the best interest of either country or the world! The stand-off has now ended. Why don't we all let it be and say all is well that ends well. Opening up old wounds will serve no purpose! God knows there are much bigger challenges ahead for all to concentrate on!

  6. The Pakistani Establishment got a sorry from the USA and $1 billion in CSF. They will regard it as a victory and we can look forward to more such antics by them in the future.

    • Let us be frank. The people who are the top officials in Pakistan are concerned more with their own egos than they are with the country.

  7. The reaction to the original "outrage" and the subsequent "apology" shows how the military establishment manipulates public opinion through a media manufactured outcry. Where are TV hosts and commentators who were foaming in the mouth when the Salala incident took place? One sign from the establishment and they have lost their voices.

    • Talking of original outrages, what happened to the benighted investigation into how Osama managed to enjoy our hospitality for so long? The powers that be found Afridi in next to no time.Some 14 months after the raid, but not a dickie bird on the real scandal. If there was no (semi) official involvement, it is beyond belief that he could 'hide' in a garrison town, in the biggest compound in the neighbourhood, for so many years without any suspicion before or during his sojourn, and certainly not during a proper forensic investigation after the event

      • This attempt to whitewash a genuinely embarrassing episode has the same modus-oparandi as the embarrassment of a few years back. Just substitute "Abbottabad" with "Proliferation", and "Afridi" with "A Q Khan".

    • Spot on Althaf. Y