The era of the topsy-turvy lota voters
One election robbed the vote bank of one major political party and the next looted that of the other. By the third, however, both had gotten an opportunity to pick up the pieces. The comparison of voting trends in the past three elections (1997, 2002, 2008) offer an interesting peep into how the electorate in our country is awakening to elections, democracy and politics.
The average jiyala was dejected and disappointed by its party when President Leghari made the always dwindling Sword of Damocles, aka Clause 58-2B, fall on the government in 1996. For once PPP wasn’t a martyr, it was a victim – of its on deeds. Its own President dismissed the government after the Prime Minister’s brother was killed by law enforcers of her own government. The party’s vote bank shrank phenomenally in 1997. Compared with its 1993 vote, PPP lost half of its vote bank in Punjab, Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan and a quarter in Sindh. Its tally of votes went tumbling down from a towering 7.6 to a humble 4.2 million.
Where did those annoyed 3.4 million piplias go? Some actually may have stayed back home as the overall turnout in 1997 declined by a million too. But all of them certainly did not boycott and instead turned to other parties and candidates. PML-N, independents and smaller parties deposited close to a million new votes each to their accounts. So the voters changed their loyalties though the myth holds that come what may the PPP voter would never stamp a symbol but the arrow.
Tables turned on PML-N in next elections. The party was in dire straits in 2002 with its cadre dispersed and leaders either co-opted or in jails, facing mostly corruption charges. Sharifs themselves were exiled to Saudi Arabia and kept incommunicado with the remaining party office bearers. Moreover, the Sharifs were now fallen idols, seen as cowardly mortals who could not stand up to the challenge and ditched their own party. The PML-N vote bank nose dived from a staggering 8.8 million in 1997 to a miserable 3.4 million. It lost 57 per cent of its 1997 vote in Punjab and the party’s 1.4 million votes in the other three provinces came crashing to 0.3 million. In terms of seats it was even worse. But despite the deadly blow dealt to the party by General Musharraf, that it managed to secure these many votes belies the myth that PML-N was a toy in the hands of the establishment with no loyal supporters. It might have been so when it was founded but PML-N did carve out its niche and now has a following in central Punjab.
But loyalty was in short supply in 2002. Where did the 5.4 million voters that PML-N lost go? PPP did improve its tally but it perhaps could not benefit from the decimation of its arch rival as its vote failed to surpass the party’s 1993 tally. It seems that PPP only won back its old supporters and those who left PML-N preferred to support mainly the King’s parties, PML-Q and MMA as these were the two surprises of the 2002 election results. So, did the PML-N leaders turn lota or did its voters? That’s the chicken or the egg first kind of riddle.
So in two consecutive elections a big chunk of erstwhile loyal party voters, from both the ends of the spectrum, savored infidelity and this perhaps wasn’t an unpleasant experience for them. The phenomenon of party loyalty lost its hold and became a secondary factor in electoral politics somewhere in mid-1990s. My hypothesis based on the above facts is that presently close to half of the electorate in our country is as yet predisposed in terms of who it will vote for including all the PPP, PML-N, MQM, JUI and ANP. But around half now have the decision pending till the elections are announced. That alone is a lot of voters by any standard and it makes the coming elections an open ended game.
But if these voters do not tow the party lines, how do they decide who to vote for?
The writer works with Punjab Lok Sujag, a research and advocacy group that has a primary interest in understanding governance and democracy.
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
This is good analysis based on officially announced figures. But one thing is missing that none of these elections were free, fair and transparent. All of these elections, starting from 1988, were focused to reduce the PPP votes and Assembly seats through all means by the Establishment and its created and supported political parties, media and judicial system. If next elections are transparent, results may be totally different from being analysed by partial political analysts, partial media anchors and columnists, However, democracy must be continued.
Its human nature that every one demands for power but he get the power, then he became a proudable person. in the mean while when he lost the power, then he says that every one is lota in Politics.
the voters are made to vote through force and this can be seen in many areas competitive and educated people simply do not vote and similarly the contestants are also lotas, uneducated, fake degree kind of people
voters in pakistan vote for those who can help them in police cases and criminal activities.we will continue to suffer as a nation till we eliminate these fundamental problems.why crime rate is high in pakistan because these waderas and elected people enterfare in police action,
We have to give credit to imran khan for engaging the youth of all provinces , other than the minor facebook generation The youth of punjab was never politicized, now i see them as being more aware and ready to participate come election time.
My predictions are that voting turn out at the next election would be around 65 %.This will bring a CHANGE in Pakistani politics.
the victimisation of PPP will be the biggest factor in giving it a second term
What victimization? What about their four years performance?
1990 and 1993 were close elections
Recently tons of LOTA joined PTI from PML, PPP and ANP. I would say Largest LOTA migration in the World Political History. Such big stars are Shah Mahmood Quraishi, Javed Hashmi, PPP MNA Afzal Sindhu, ANP Sec Hashim Babar Khan etc
what will this LOTA revolution brings i wonder!
What this Lota Revolution bring? ……. More lotas, what else.
There is a concept of the independent voter i.e. that does not have strict loyalty to any one party. Most elections are decided by these independent voters. They get dejected by the ruling party and vote the other way the next time, only to be failed by them also. They are also the swing voters. Happens in all countries, including the US.
The next election surprise you even more
well written but, it will be worth mentioning the silent majority of more than 50% that never came to cast their vote on the election day. Civil society and Co. should devise some ways to reduce this indifference from such a large portion of populace…
Iman Khan may have already changed that. He speaks the language of that silent majority.
why people like to fool themselves… silent purely means meaningless… imran can speak whatever language but its meaninless cause they again wont come out and vote…. elections would shock imran when he will be a big power but thousands of miles away from power cause his silent majority decided to remain silent…..
POLITICS
I never know what is politics in Pakistan!