Could Pakistan and Afghanistan go to war?
In recent years, peddling worst-case scenarios about Pakistan has become a cottage industry in Washington. Loose nukes, state disintegration, economic collapse, Islamist takeovers — these have all been flavors of the month.
The latest one making the rounds is that Pakistan could go to war with Afghanistan.
A recent Foreign Policy piece by Robert Haddick, managing editor of Small Wars Journal, sketches out this possibility. The article is thought-provoking and at times persuasive — yet also somewhat flawed.
Haddick’s argument is as follows: Kabul regards Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan as its “number one security problem.” With Pakistan and the United States refusing to smash these safe havens — which the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network fighters use as staging grounds for attacks on Afghanistan — Kabul will have no choice but to wage its own offensive. This is the only way, Haddick says, for Kabul to gain leverage in efforts to negotiate, with Islamabad and the Taliban, an end to the war in Afghanistan. However, he suggests, sustained Afghan assaults on Afghan Taliban and Haqqani fighters inside Pakistan (widely believed to be proxies of Pakistani intelligence), coupled with Pakistan’s own punitive actions against Afghanistan-based militants and unwillingness to negotiate with Kabul, could spark an “old-fashioned war” between the troubled neighbors.
What Haddick doesn’t say is that Afghanistan’s military is ravaged by desertions, drug abuse, and illiteracy — not to mention militant infiltration. The notion of this fledgling and troubled force barging pell-mell into Pakistan’s tribal belt to crush crafty and vicious fighters who often attack the most well-secured areas of Afghanistan is questionable. Success may be elusive.
Haddick acknowledges Afghanistan’s military would need help, and he proposes an alternative strategy: Kabul reaching out to the Pakistani Taliban — which uses Afghanistan as a base for its insurgency against the Pakistani government — and trying to use the group as leverage over Islamabad.
This reasoning is problematic. It’s doubtful the TTP would want to work with Afghanistan, a country closely allied with Washington — a government the TTP loathes as much as it does Pakistan’s. Additionally, while Haddick doesn’t mention the possibility, it still bears emphasising that the TTP certainly has no desire to fight a proxy war against the Afghan Taliban. True, each has a different chief target (Islamabad for the former, Kabul and Nato forces for the latter). Yet they share much in common, including ethnicity and ideology. And while they are fighting different wars, there is reason to believe they may occasionally cooperate operationally — including, perhaps, in a December 2009 attack on a CIA base in Afghanistan.
Haddick says if Kabul can’t win over the TTP, it would probably ask the United States to “support its development” of offensive capabilities for a military campaign inside Pakistan’s tribal areas. He doesn’t address how Washington would respond to this request, which would present a major conundrum. The recently signed US-Afghan strategic accord states that the two nations will “foster close cooperation concerning defense and security.” However, for a country desperately seeking to extricate itself from an unpopular war, providing support for an offensive inside Pakistan would be tremendously risky. Not only would this antagonise Pakistan, but it would also anger US taxpayers struggling to emerge from economic malaise.
By no means am I saying a war between Pakistan and Afghanistan is out of the question. The possibility certainly exists. Cross-border raids are occurring from both sides of the Durand Line; just last week, dozens of militants from Kunar province raided a village near Bajaur and took villagers hostage. And such incursions are not new. Afghanistan has suffered cross-border assaults for years, and Pakistan is also no stranger to them (recall that last year, 200 militants entered Bajaur from Kunar, and fought Pakistani forces for several days). There are indications that the two governments are starting to lose patience. Afghanistan has claimed that Pakistan’s military fired rockets on suspected TTP camps in Kunar, while Pakistan recently accused 60 Afghan soldiers of pursuing militants in Upper Kurram District.
Still, I think this misses a larger point. With international forces leaving Afghanistan, the country’s internal security situation will surely deteriorate. It won’t be long before Kabul’s “number one security problem” is domestic sources of insurgency, not those across the border. In fact, if, as is likely, Afghanistan descends into chaos once Nato troops depart, many Pakistan-based Afghan militants will likely return to Afghanistan to exploit this unrest — and to attempt to unseat the government.
In essence, not long from now, Afghanistan will be fully consumed with fighting a war within its borders, and not in or against Pakistan.
The takeaway? Washington’s worst-case contingencies about Pakistan are sometimes worth worrying about (economic collapse is a real possibility). But others are not. Sadly, the most realistic nightmare scenarios — such as water scarcity and the disappearance of arable land — are barely acknowledged at all.
The author is the program associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. You can reach him at michael.kugelman@wilsoncenter.org
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
Policies should be developed independently through round table talks without any interference from third parties looking for their own interest
Independence is the only solution for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to create policies of mutual interest setting long term goals
A peaceful and mature solution from both sides as the people have already suffered enough
Silly idea why we want to fight with our twin brother. Deep down both countries love each other unfortunately India and USA continue to play a very negative role innocent life are being lost on both side of the boarder.
Why talk of going to war. Talk of reconciliation and peace among the civilized nations. Not only Pakistan and Afganistan but the entire world would become one home for the entire mankind only once the human race breaks loose from the shackles of religion and only once the world embraces spirituality which is the essence of all religions. The great awakening is in the offing and the man made barriers shall disappear within the next fifty years. Take my words for granted.Chawla
I hope there is no war between these two countries, but all this talk about them uniting as some sort of confederation is silly. Afghans and Pakistanis are not the same people and even the Pashtun people of the two countries are different.
Afghans speak Pashto and Farsi not Urdu, Punjabi and the other Indian languages and furthermore they identify Pakistanis as Dalkhor Punjabis.
The kind of prejudice Afghans harbor towards Pakistanis is deep seated and instilled in the national psyche. Afghans ridicule the Pakistani national anthem, which is written in Farsi and lends credence to Pakistan's identity crisis. Islam is the only common denominator between these two nations.
Pakistan and Afghanistan cannot go to war. They are allies in the drug business.
More likely is that Balochistan allies itself with Iran to fight oppression in Pakistan..
Kindly identify yourself as there are many things evident from your brief comment
There are more Indians on this forum than Afghans. What is their stake in the point of this article?
It will be foolish for Afghanistan to fight a war against Pakistan Army. Pakistan Army is very strong and very united. It was Pakistan army who thrown Russian out of Afghanistan and not Afghanis or American and so called American Jiahdis.
If Afghanis are great warriors in the first place they should have not let Russian to roll down their tanks to Kabul in just 24 hours.
Afghanistan and western powers should think twice before standing against Pakistan Army. Pakistan Army is never alone its people are always behind them. Even in these worst days people trust Army more than corrupt politicians.
You are dreaming. Afghans, General Zia, the Saudis, Israelis, Egyptians and the CIA all drove the Russian Army out of Afghanistan.
Hey bro, I’m an auditor by profession and Punjabi by ethnicity. I have lived and worked in Kabul as well. I believe, we must take Afghans as our brothers, share our sources for the betterment of both the countries rather than wasting them to look down upon each other.
Afghanis are great warriors, so is our Pak Army. But war won’t feed our families, It won’t clothe us, it won’t bring smile to either of the nations. Why war then?? Why not peace and harmony. Why don’t we start respecting each other and ask Geo & Tullu Television Networks to stop feeding mis information to the general public… I pray, May Allah Bless both of us and guide us towards a peaceful and prosperous path.
Bulls Eye, before the NATO forces leave the Af-Pak area this is what they want to make sure. So in future they can keep busy fighting each other and the world can live in pace. I won't fault them for this thinking though..
Zarrar: Do you really think that you can deny them right of way and the world community would keep silent? What happens if there are sanctions on Pakistan due to this move authorized by the UN? What if there is a blockade of Karachi and Gwader ports through Arabian Sea? Think in a matured way.
Typical breaking news business at its best
Dawn has turned into a rag. Peddling neocon delusions. A history lesson for Haddick and Kugelman, Afghanistan has already tried to "invade" Pakistan – back in the 60s and 70s. They got trashed by the Pakistani tribesmen.
They should – they definitely should and sort out this matter once and for all.
Pakistan and Afghanistan would never go to war in a real sense. If there's an Army to Army war, then we all know who wins (Im just gonna state it anyways: Pakistan). Althought, its probably gonna be a guerilla warfare styled thing, where the Afghan Taliban can't be beaten. And Pathans would never side with Afghans, thats absurd. Balochs siding with them is questionable.
Pakistan relation with its immediate neighbor are not very good terms. You cannot upset immediate neighbor and relies upon distance friend?
Let me tell you what will really happen in the future. Afghanistan and Pakistan will not fight a war "InshaAllah". They are brothers. Instead they will open up borders for free trade, citizens movement, developmental cooperation, education, health care support in fact they will cooperate on all levels. They both will prosper, their armies will work together and their will be freedom, peace and prosperity. This is what Islam says and this is what will happen! with Allah's grace.
An illogical article penned by someone in a far-off think tank paid to plan theoretical scenarios. And look at the nonsense it has generated.
it will not actually the war between Pakistan and Afghanistan but between pukhtoons of Khyber pukhtoon khwa and balochistan with afgnis
The people of tribals areas are suffering both at the hands of talibans and security forces.we are fed up of the current scenario.No one is paying any heed to us as though we are not human beings.Years into operations in tribals areas but still remains unclear.Serious question arises in one’s mind .i.e our security forces lost the ability or not willing to fight few hundred people ,who have brought havoc to our lives.
I don't know why Pakistanis see thigs as impossible , War may not be with Karzai government in Kabul which is weak but
Let's look at history once more , Pakistan today honors the agressors of past to further ideology of Islamic state but religious identity is just an excuse
Mehmud Gaznavi rose from Afganistan and his first target was the Ismaili Fatimid King of Multan before he fought with Hindu Shahi Kingdom of Kabul. Similarly Muhmmad Ghori first Captured the muslim states of Punjab before he ventured eastwords.
There is no reason that another Afgan warlord can not gain enough power and move south wards towards todays Pakistani Punjab and SIndh