Multan poll
BY-ELECTIONS are usually not a good barometer of the mood ahead of a general election. With political governments in place, they are usually tilted in favour of incumbents. But the narrow victory of Abdul Qadir Gilani in Multan on Thursday to the National Assembly seat that fell vacant after his father, former prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, was disqualified by the Supreme Court in April has yielded some tantalising hints about the state of politics in Punjab. First, not all victories are equal and the few thousand votes by which the PPP held on to its former prime minister’s seat will have set alarm bells ringing in the party. Here, after all, was a district that the PPP via Yousuf Raza Gilani had lavished much attention on over the last four-and-a-half years. Here also was supposed to be fertile ground for two other factors the PPP will play up during the general election: a sense of victimhood, which the former prime minister embodies as yet another PPP prime minister ousted before his time, and the so-called Seraiki card, whose time is supposed to have come as an electoral factor. The election result, then, suggests all is not well in the PPP camp. It will not admit this publicly, but the party apparently still lacks a winning formula to overcome the woes of incumbency of a government often perceived as thoroughly incompetent and out of touch.
Second, the Multan by-election appears to have been a trial balloon for a possible revival of an alliance similar to the IJI, which fought it out with the PPP in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The runner-up in Thursday’s election, Shaukat Hayat Bosan, was supported by the PML-N, JI and PTI — all parties with similar politics and united to some extent by their opposition to the PPP. An electoral alliance may still be far off, but behind the scenes the debate over seat adjustments for the general election will inevitably pick up. Though it is far from a sure thing — at least publicly, the PTI and the PML-N are rivals — the lure of seat gains at the expense of the PPP will have Punjab’s eternally churning politics in a fresh state of excitement.
Third, the Multan by-election is a powerful response to the worrying speculation about care-taker set-ups and extra-constitutional interventions. The argument for recourse to the extra-constitutional has always been that the democratic process will not produce change. But as the highly competitive race in Multan has shown, the electorate isn’t so easy to manipulate and is ready to be wooed by other possible representatives.
I think all of the political figures should now spend less time on talk shows and more time on knocking doors. They simply cannot make the individuals "just appear" at the polling stations without appearing at their doors first.
It is a long way to real democracy but it seems that there is an awareness in the people and the coming elections will be very different than previous ones. Peoples party may have won this time but there are hard times ahead.The politics of Pakistan is for change.
This shows how little the paper pundits know about their only National party of Pakistan – the PPP.
PPP is capable of doing any thing, including rigging, just to show it is still popular.
Do you have any personal and inside knowledge of vote rigging? completely disgusting comment without any shred of evidence to prove it.
With the kind of alienation that they have created amongst the people, that they won is a miracle! Thanks to the CJ are in order!.
There is much talk in media on the results of recently held election of NA-151, and every one, according to his/her knowledge is advising PPP that it is not their victory but it is their loss. Although one can say that AQG has taken less votes then his father, but on the same time that Mr Bosan has taken more votes is wrong notion. if we visit the results of 2008 election elder Bosan manage to bag 45765 votes while candidate of PML-N bag 18413. total of both votes is 64178. so this is also time for opposition parties to rethink,that despite disqualification of YRG, hostile media campaign and alliance of political parties, they fail to defeat his son. another point to note is that this was a bye election here turn out almost remain low, so one can say that those voters stay at their home might come to cast vote in favor of PPP.
In the coming elections two major election winiing parties will compete i.e PPP and PML(N). PTI has yet to prove his worth in respect of winning seats. From these two parties, PPP will definitely have an edge though it cannot do well in central Punjab and northern Punjab and one can anticipate that it will again be single largest party (though with less seats as compared to the present) in yet another cliffhanger. But since Nawaz annot go with other parties due to his arrogance, non-compromising behaviour, Zardari will be able to form alliance with other small parties including ANP and MQM, there is more possiblity that PPP will have another tennure if democratic rule is not derailed.
Whereas I agree with the overall analysis of the editorial, however, the result also points out that unless the PML-N, PTI and JI form an IJI like alliance, the PPP with all its negative baggage, is still capable giving these parties (even in Punjab) a run for their money!
The matter-of-fact analysis of the Editorial spells out clearly that the glaring incompetence and being out of touch with with the burning problems of the country, will be punished decisively by the voters at the coming elections.
It is so sad to see the mind set of the people of that area, after suffering up to 20 hours a day power cuts, no health care what so ever, no social services available for poor, no help to businesses, corrupt convicted political leaders, not to mention the fact that Yousuf Raza Gilani was in fact "convicted" by the highest court of the land & he did not even bother to quit his job that is untill he was literally forced out. Now the people of that area voted his son in to the parliment. Pakistanis can sit back 7 thing if they really deserve any better life style or would they ever get one if they keep voting in these corrupt politicians back in to the power ? There is so much Supreme Court do for the well being of the people of that country but of they don't want to help themselves, no one can.
Fairly one sided comments and lack any balance. Lets look at this in another way. It is not really a razor sharp margin as editor is trying to portray. PPP's candidate won by a margin of almost 7% in Punjab against the political machinery of the provincial Punjab Govt, alliance of 3 major political parties in Punjab and non-stop propaganda by the media. In most recent election Obama won by a margin of 4 % and this was considered a landslide. Only in editor's mind a 7% margin victory is considered "close". Writer feels "sad at the mindset of the people", sure like Punjab govt has been growing gold trees in peoples backyards, right? Elections are not very far off, lets not speculate, we will find what people are thinking. Let the right wing parties form an alliance and duke it out against centrist and center left parties. Even if the right wing alliance is able to come to power it will be due to "Punjab power" and not any place else in Pakistan.