South Asia’s water woes
A private vehicle crosses a bridge as excavators are used at the dam site of Kishanganga power project in Gurez, 160 km north of Srinagar June 21, 2012. – Reuters
KANZALWAN, India-Pakistan Line of Control (AlertNet): As the silver waters of the Kishanganga rush through this north Kashmir valley, Indian laborers are hard at work on a hydropower project that will dam the river just before it flows across one of the world’s most heavily militarised borders into Pakistan.
The hum of excavators echoes through the pine-covered valley, clearing masses of soil and boulders, while army trucks crawl through the steep Himalayan mountain passes.
The 330-MW dam is a symbol of India’s growing focus on hydropower but also highlights how water is a growing source of tension with downstream Pakistan, which depends on the snow-fed Himalayan rivers for everything from drinking water to agriculture.
Islamabad has complained to an international court that the dam in the Gurez valley, one of dozens planned by India, will affect river flows and is illegal. The court has halted any permanent work on the river for the moment, although India can still continue tunneling and other associated projects.
“There is definitely potential for conflict based on water, particularly if we are looking to the year 2050, when there could be considerable water scarcity in India and Pakistan,” says Michael Kugelman, South Asia Associate at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.
“Populations will continue to grow. There will be more pressure on supply. Factor in climate change and faster glacial melt … That means much more will be at stake. So you could have a perfect storm which conceivably could be some sort of trigger.”
It’s not just South Asia – water disputes are a global phenomenon, sparked by growing populations, rapid urbanisation, increased irrigation and a rising demand for alternative power such as hydroelectricity.
Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq quarrel over the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates. The Jordan river divides Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and the West Bank. Ten African countries begrudgingly share the Nile.
In Southeast Asia, China and Laos are building dams over the mighty Mekong, raising tensions with downstream nations.
A US intelligence report in February warned fresh water supplies are unlikely to keep up with global demand by 2040, increasing political instability, hobbling economic growth and endangering world food markets.
A “water war” is unlikely in the next decade, it said, but beyond that rising demand and scarcities due to climate change and poor management will increase the risk of conflict.
MAJOR THREAT
That threat is possibly nowhere more apparent than in South Asia, home to a fifth of humanity and rife with historical tensions, mistrust and regional rivalries.
The region’s three major river systems – the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra – sustain India and Pakistan’s breadbasket states and many of their major cities including New Delhi and Islamabad, as well as Bangladesh.
“South Asia is symbolic of what we are seeing in terms of water stress and tensions across the world,” says B.G. Verghese, author and analyst at New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research.
The region is one of the world’s most water-stressed, yet the population is adding an extra 25 million people a year – South Asia’s per capita water availability has dropped by 70 percent since 1950, says the Asian Development Bank.
The effect of climate change on glaciers and rainfall patterns may be crucial.
“Most of the water that is used in Pakistan comes from glacial melt or the monsoon,” says Rafay Alam, an environmental lawyer and coordinator of the water program at Lahore University of Management Sciences.
The dry months of June-July offer a snapshot of the extreme water crisis in the region.
Hospitals in New Delhi this year cancelled surgeries because they had no water to sterilize instruments, clean operating theatres or even wash hands. Swanky malls selling luxury brands were forced to switch off air conditioners and shut toilets.
In Pakistan, the port town of Gwadar ran out of water entirely, forcing the government to send two naval water tankers. Some government flats in the garrison city of Rawalpindi have not had water for weeks, said the local press.
India, as both an upper and lower riparian nation, finds itself at the centre of water disputes with its eastern and western downstream neighbors – Bangladesh and Pakistan – which accuse New Delhi of monopolising water flows.
To the north and northeast, India fears the same of upstream China, with which it fought a brief border war in 1962. Beijing plans a series of dams over the Tsangpo river, called the Brahmaputra as it flows into eastern India.
DAM DISPUTES
For India, damming its Himalayan rivers is key to generating electricity, as well as managing irrigation and flood control. Hydropower is a critical part of India’s energy security strategy and New Delhi plans to use part of it to reach about 40 percent of people who are currently off the grid.
A severe power shortage is hitting factory output and rolling outages are routine, further stifling an economy which is growing at its slowest in years.
India’s plans have riled Bangladesh, which it helped gain freedom from Pakistan in 1971. Relations cooled partly over the construction of the Farakka Barrage (dam) on the Ganges River which Dhaka complained to the United Nations about in 1976. The issue remains a sore point even now.
More recently, Bangladesh has opposed India’s plans to dam the Teesta and Barak rivers in its remote northeast.
But India’s hydropower plans are most worrying for Pakistan.
Water has long been a source of stress between the two countries. The line that divided them in 1947 also cleaved the province of Punjab, literally the land of five rivers – the Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum, all tributaries of the Indus – breaking up millenniums-old irrigation systems.
India’s latest hydro plans have fanned new tensions.
“Pakistan is extremely worried that India is planning to build a whole sequence of projects on both the Chenab and Jhelum rivers … and the extent to which India then becomes capable of controlling water flows,” says Feisal Naqvi, a lawyer who works on water issues.
In recent years, political rhetoric over water has been on the rise in Islamabad, and militant groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba have sought to use the issue to whip up anti-India sentiments – accusing New Delhi of “stealing water”.
India brushes off such fears as paranoia and argues the dams won’t consume or store water but just delay flows, in line with a 1960 treaty that governs the sharing of Indus waters between the two countries.
SINK OR SWIM
South Asia’s water woes may have little to do with cross-border disputes, however. Shortages appear to be rooted in wasteful and inefficient water management practices, with India and Pakistan the worst culprits, experts say.
“All these countries are badly managing their water resources, yet they are experts in blaming other countries outside,” says Sundeep Waslekar, president of Strategic Foresight Group, a Mumbai-based think-tank.
“It would be more constructive if they looked at what they are doing at home, than across their borders.”
Their water infrastructure systems, such as canals and pipes used to irrigate farm lands, are falling apart from neglect. Millions of gallons of water are lost to leakages every day.
The strain on groundwater is the most disturbing. In India, more than 60 percent of irrigated agriculture and 85 percent of drinking water depend on it, says the World Bank. Yet in 20 years, most of its aquifers will be in a critical condition.
Countries must improve water management, say experts, and share information such as river flows as well as joint ventures on dam projects such as those India is doing with Bhutan.
“Populations are growing, demand is increasing, climate change is taking its toll and we are getting into deeper and deeper waters,” says Verghese, author of ‘Waters of Hope: Himalayan-Ganga cooperation for a billion people’.
“You can’t wait and watch. You have to get savvy and do something about it. Why get locked into rhetoric? We need to cooperate. Unless you learn to swim, you are dead.”
This is not matter of mutual interest and water saving. This is matter of violation og agreement by India that it will not divert passage of rivers and make headworks. Only will make electricity with run off water.
Future wars will be on water dispute. Prepare for that!
Come on people think of solutions instead of concentrating on problems….
In North Texas the govt. has built lakes to store water (from rivers and ranis) for big cities like Dallas-Fort Worth. That water is treated and reused. There are many small lakes in and around the city so even if there is little rain for a couple of years there is more than enough water for everybody.
I think WAPDA proposed some resorviors like these around 1990 but nobody did anything since then. If correctly planned, this could go a long way in solving the water issue at least for big cities in Pakistan and India.
The major problem of south Asia is population. Without population control none of the governments can provide access to clean energy services, water, health, education, sanitation, employment etc. Rapidly increasing population, illiteracy, poverty are the major issues and we really need to make concerted efforts to tackle them. Otherwise, you will see riots with the name of religion, language, ethnicity, region, cast etc. in all the south Asian regions.
I don't see any of the "objective" Indians, who usually frequent NFP's blog, offering any comments here. Perhaps they don't have much to say about India's illegal exploits on these rivers ?
Complaining never solves an issue. Since rivers are shared due to geography, they must be managed together. Indus water treaty has been a success so far and therefore similar efforts would keep peace and share resources amicably. First we need to learn to respect this resource nature has bestowed on us.
Watch Amer Khan program SATYAMEV JAYATE, you will learn from it. By the way, NFP is a sensible blogger.
This last program on water management was brilliant. In one example it showed how a rural community whose land had become so barren due to water shortage that no one wanted to marry their daughters to any male in that village. Sheer rain water management turned that village into an oasis and had so much surplus water within one year that they were offering it to the next door villages who just sat on their hands and waited for the water tanker to arrive. Can all those complaining water theft and so on do some water management…and of course, something about population explosion. Thanks to Aamir Khan for his very good programmes and thanks to you Virkau for bringing it up here.
I agree Amir Khan's was very good (as are all the episodes). He has shown how villages which had almost no water ,after proper water management are now water surplus and are in a position to give water to other villages. All this has been done without govt help. It is very easy to blame the govt or the neighboring country but the solution is better water management at the individual , village and town level.
Asif Yaar: Blogs are open to the public to air all kinds of points of view. So why do you complain? Solutions to the water problems are many and can not be implemented without peace between Pakistan and India.
Asif Bhai: Historically, under IWT Pakistan preferred better share of upper riparian rivers leaving lower riparian rivers for India. This benefited Indian Punjab as compared to Indian administered Kashmir. On the other hand Sindh is deprived as compared to Punjab in Pakistan. For the shock of readers, signing IWT is being opposed by none other than Kashmiri leadership demanding compensation from Union of India. The need of the hour is to have controlled flow of water in all these rivers for benefit of both nations. What is required is also to build barrages on Pak side to provide continuous flow to its citizenry through canals. Pakistan is also require projects like NRLP linking 14 Himalayan and 16 peninsular rivers. The thinking is required in this direction and I agree with the writer on this issue.
SOME AMOUNT OF COMPETENT MANAGEMENT FOR PAKISTAN WOULD HAVE MADE A HUGH DIFFERENCE TODAY
The young educated minds are required to analyze that as Pakistan has certain issues to IWT, India also has many issues. Apart from the legalities, there is also the human and cultural angle to large dam projects. It is misconception that run on river Kishanganga Project would hamper Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project. Under IWT India can even divert Kishanganga waters to Bonar Madmati Nallah. The water flows to Pakistan even today are colossal and causing flooding every year. The data also clearly show that even ten Baglihar Dams will not be able to store 1% of Chenab water.
A very timely warning indeed! Ayub Khan had no right to arbitrarily give away our two eatern rivers, Sutlej and the Ravi, to India in exchange for repalcement canals and the two dams. The Indus Basin treaty should have at least contained a proviso that it would expire when the two dams, Mangla and Tarbela, silt up.
The threat of population, environment degradation and global warming have seen a lot of talk but not enough result oriented action. We are already paying more for water than oil.
Political weakness in both countries wont allow meaning ful efforts on this front.
Politicians are so weak & self centered that they do not think about people of their countries.
LeT , ISI & others do not want good relations with india & similarly
Shiv Sena ,RSS 7 others do not want good relations with Pakistan
&&& political leadership is so week that nothing is done .
BLAME SOLELY GOES TO FRAGEMENTED society of both countries who
can not look beyond their NOSES in political sence & will condem their children & grandchildren
I fear WATER WAR experts talk about may be real possibility , but WATER RIOTS is a sure thing..
in both countries MOTHER NATURE SHOW PITY ON US.
It is not only water there is a great danger of everything else falling short of the requirement of the ever growing population particularly in south Asia. Containing population is the real answer. It would be unwise to be killed under the stampede of our own making or to die out of thirst. Chawla
It is not only water there is a great danger of everything else falling short of the requirement of the ever growing population particularly in south Asia. Containing population is the real answer. It would be unwise to be killed under the stampede of our own making or to die out of thirst. Chawla
We need to cooperate.We are human beings and need water to live.It doen not matter which side of fence we live.We are chideren of the same region.Better and common sense must prevail.There are always solutions.They have to be explored with cool Heads and mutual trust and justice.
Are you making this recommendation to India, or to Pakistan ?
I think Farooq Saheb means both countries. Last Sunday, one of the Indian channel aired a program on water management hosted by the actor, Amer Khan, which is highly relevant in the present context.
Indian dams on Pakistan-reserved rivers have already disturbed the water flow, affecting agriculture. India is going to use water as a weapon against Pakistan in the future but we are too caught up in nonsense like strategic depth to effectively counter it.
In the early 50's each Pakistani had about 5,000 units of water available on per capita basis. Now the per capita availability has come down to about 1,000 units.
This 5 fold decrease in per capita water availability can be explained by a nearly 5 fold increase in the population in the same duration. Makes sense.
In the long term Pakistan not only needs to control it's population but actually must bring in down if it wants to go back to per capita water availability of the 50's.