HYDERABAD/NAUSHAHRO FEROZE, Oct 25: The by-election on a provincial assembly seat (PS-21 Naushahro Feroze-III) scheduled for Nov 17 appears to be a challenge as much for the opposition parties backed by nationalist groups as for the ruling Pakistan People’s Party over their respective stand on the Sindh People’s Local Government Act, 2012.

The PPP is facing multiple challenges in the constituency, which is considered as one of its strongholds.

The nationalist groups and two erstwhile allies of the PPP — the National People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional — as well as PPP’s own MNA Syed Zafar Ali Shah are poised to make the by-poll a referendum or barometer to judge the ruling party’s popularity in the wake of their current agitation against the new local government law before they go for the 2013 polls.

The by-election on PS-21 (Kandiaro-Mehrabpur) is all set to be an interesting contest. The seat fell vacant after the Supreme Court disqualified PPP lawmaker Syed Ahmed Ali Shah, a brother of MNA Zafar Ali Shah, for possessing dual citizenship.

Apparently the current electoral bout largely hinges on the anti-LG law agitation that has claimed a number of lives in Sindh. The PPP reacted to the agitation with a fairly impressive show of its political prowess by holding a public meeting in Hyderabad on Oct 15. The PPP has fielded Sarfaraz Ali Shah as its candidate, while the National People’s Party (NPP) has nominated Syed Abrar Shah.

Thirteen independent candidates are also in the run. MNA Zafar Ali Shah also fielded his paternal nephew Zuhaib Shah, a SZABIST graduate, against his own party’s candidate following his growing disenchantment with the PPP.

In the 2008 general elections, PPP’s Ahmed Ali Shah had won the seat by securing 32,351 votes. NPP’s Syed Manzoor Shah had lost the election and had bagged 21,026 votes.

This time round, the main contest is also expected between the PPP and the NPP, but Zuhaib Shah is considered a vote spoiler for the PPP.

The election campaign is gaining momentum as the PPP, NPP and Zafar Ali Shah are busy holding meetings and trying to persuade estranged workers and supporters to gain maximum advantage in the by-poll.

The PPP did not award a party ticket to the nephew of Zafar Ali Shah due to some internal conflict as the latter openly criticised his party following the passage of the new LG law. Mr Shah was of the view that it was his family’s right to get a party ticket since his brother was disqualified and in the past the party had awarded ticket to a son of Dr Zulfikar Mirza after he resigned from the assembly.

Rumour has it that the Shah brothers may announce quitting the PPP when the younger Shah returns from Haj, as according to his own elder brother “we are not feeling comfortable with [party] leadership which hasn’t taken us on board on decisions regarding our constituency and redressed our grievances”.

NPP chief Ghulam Murtaza Jatoi managed to win the support from the Sindh Tarraqqi-pasand Party (STP) for his candidate and also requested the Awami Tehreek to back its candidate against the PPP. He also visited the residence of Zafar Ali Shah and urged him to join the NPP and support his candidate against the PPP.

However, Mr Shah ruled out any alliance with the NPP. “It means we should leave our own home,” he said. “One thing is for sure. The PPP is on a losing side in Sindh and the current political atmosphere will have a serious impact on 2013 polls.”

Naushahro Feroze, carved out of Nawabshah district (now Shaheed Benazirabad district) back in 1989, has two national (NA-211 & 212) and five provincial assembly (PS-19 to 23) seats.

The constituency underwent a delimitation process in 2002 when General Musharraf increased seats in parliament. PS-21 is attached with NA-212 (Naushahro Feroze-II) which Zafar Ali Shah had won in the 2008 general election as a PPP nominee. He was also elected in the 2002 election as a PPP candidate. The PS-21 constituency covers Mehrabpur and Kandiaro talukas.

NPP chief Jatoi still believed that Zafar Ali Shah should be approached to come up with a consensus candidate. “There is still time and we can work it out to make this by-election a referendum against the PPP,” he told journalists while visiting STP’s hunger strikers camp in Qasimabad.

STP chairman Dr Qadir Magsi subscribed to Mr Jatoi’s view but with a word of caution.

“This election can be a barometer for judging PPP’s popularity graph in the wake of the present agitation.”

According to Dr Magsi’s analysis, it may be due to the Jatois’ influence that there could be an upset in the by-election otherwise it was a PPP’s seat. “When we have a candidate of our own in polls with nationalist commitment and if he is defeated in a transparent elections then we can say that our viewpoint is not given weight by the people on the LG law. But if the PPP wins in the by-election without rigging it will show that it’s organisational set-up is intact. You must keep in mind one thing. It is a rural seat with heavy tribal influence and it is not like Hyderabad, Thatta or Badin’s urban constituency where electoral scene is altogether different,” he said.

The forces which are part of the Sindh Bachayo Committee are promising to put their weight behind the NPP candidate and try to persuade Zafar Ali Shah to withdraw his nephew from the race.

Analyst and writer Inam Sheikh puts it this way. “I expect an upset or something unusual in results and this election is going to set a trend for the 2013 elections i.e. PPP versus the rest [anti-PPP forces],” he said, adding that there was a considerable vote of Punjabi settlers.

“It will be a tough fight and will have implications for 2013 polls.”

He said that the PPP would go to the last extent to win the polls as it’s a question of its prestige. “But I think nationalists will have more to show in urban-based constituencies than in the rural ones when it comes to electoral scene.”

It appears that the PPP leadership also understands the challenge in the constituency and therefore MNA Faryal Talpur, a sister of President Asif Ali Zardari, was herself monitoring the party’s election campaign. She visited the district in the recent past and persuaded certain influential political figures of the area to join the PPP. She entrusted her coordinator Advocate Ziaul Hassan Lanjar with the task of winning the seat at any cost.

The PPP candidate, Sarfaraz Shah, was the former Taluka nazim of Kandiaro. He was backed by the NPP and was defeated by PPP candidate Syed Manzoor Hussain Shah in the 2002 general elections. The NPP candidate Abrar Shah was also defeated by PPP candidate Syed Munawar Ali Shah in the 1993 general elections.

The polling will be held according to new computerised electoral rolls. In the 2008 general elections, there were a total of 150,491 voters. However, the number of voters has been reduced to 119,834, including 65,173 male and 56,711 female.

A total number of 117 polling stations have been set up in various government schools and other government buildings in the constituency.