The declining political prospects of Imran Khan
One year ago, I wrote a piece asserting that Imran Khan was peaking too soon.
I argued in part that the PTI’s electability is exaggerated because most of its support lies in cities, which contain only a third of Pakistan’s population. In several decades, when a majority of Pakistanis are living in cities, the story could be different. But not now.
Predictably, I was pilloried by Khan’s feisty followers. “Give us a break,” one of them wrote to me. “Imran Khan shall Insha Allah rise, and no anti-Imran propaganda would work.”
Alas, based on events of the last few weeks, it may be more accurate to say that Khan’s star has already risen — and is now in danger of falling.
One can’t deny his popularity, as evidenced by those monster jalsa turnouts in Lahore and Karachi, and by the polls that find the PTI to be Pakistan’s most popular political party. Khan is a hero to young, urban-based, middle-class, conservative Pakistanis — a rapidly growing demographic much more representative of Pakistan than the small cosmopolitan elite most familiar to Washington.
Khan’s popularity actually extends beyond urban Pakistan — to the Beltway and Big Apple. I’ve met numerous Khan aficionados within the US-based Pakistan Diaspora, including angry yet articulate students who pepper me with probing questions when I make presentations on university campuses. If Khan were to give a public talk in Washington, he’d attract hundreds of Pakistani Americans — and not just because of his celebrity status (incidentally, Pervez Musharraf, far from Mr. Popularity and dismissed by many as a has-been, drew an audience of 400 at a Wilson Center lecture in 2011).
But let’s consider what’s happened of late. Where has Khan gone? He’s been relatively quiet, and especially since his anti-drones peace caravan. He continues to score some media interviews, though mainly in Western outlets. The only major headlines he has generated of late came from his unpleasant encounter with US customs officials during a visit to Canada.
Has Khan decided to lay low for a while because of the death threat he received from the Taliban this summer? I seriously doubt it; Khan isn’t the type to cower in the face of such threats (when I met him several years ago, it was clear that he exudes strength — from his large frame and booming voice to supreme confidence).
More likely, he’s taking some time out to rethink his problematic political strategy and platform.
After all, while he has attracted some big names to the PTI (think Asad Umar and Shah Mahmood Qureshi), the party has suffered some recent defections (think Shireen Mazari). Additionally, anti-Khan commentary has been especially vociferous of late, as exemplified by a devastating takedown on Dawn.com.
Some of the criticism he’s receiving is misplaced. Sure, ending corruption in 90 days is outlandishly idealistic. But let’s face it: No politician campaigns on substance; he or she campaigns on sound bytes and rhetoric (I dare anyone to uncover one second of substance from the just-concluded $6 billion US presidential campaign).
It is Khan’s views about militancy — and how to address it — that deserve criticism. The Malala tragedy crystallises the absurdity (and danger) of his seemingly conciliatory position toward the sickeningly brutal TTP. Pakistan’s overwhelming, broad-based public condemnation of the TTP after its attack on the young schoolgirl — a far cry from the responses to the assassinations of Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti or, for that matter, to any sectarian killing — suggests that Khan’s position is sorely at odds with public opinion.
However, it’s the Pakistani political system — the very institution he vows to radically reform — that most threatens his quest for political power. It is a patronage-driven machine that offers practically no electoral victory hopes for political parties not named PPP or PML.
The PPP may be unpopular, but I can’t imagine one of its leaders not becoming the next prime minister. Certainly the PTI will win seats in next year’s election, but not enough to form a government (unless, of course, the security establishment helps propel Khan to power — a prediction heard less often now than earlier this year, at least here in Washington).
This is why it’s wrong to compare Khan to Barack Obama, as some observers have done. Sure, they’re both candidates of hope. But Obama belongs to one of his country’s established political parties; Khan does not. A more appropriate American equivalent to Khan would be Ralph Nader — an incorruptible third-party politician with strident views and young, fervent supporters. Yet he has never come close to winning an election.
Before the PTI trolls release their venom on me, let’s be clear: Khan could well become prime minister one day. Urbanisation threatens the rural-based bastions of the PML-N and PPP, and an opening could eventually emerge for ascendant parties like the PTI.
But that’s a discussion for another day.
The author is the Senior Program Associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. You can reach him at michael.kugelman@wilsoncenter.org
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.
“The PPP may be unpopular, but I can’t imagine one of its leaders not becoming the next prime minister. ”
Huh what? That’s some messed up logic.
I have met Imran Khan in the UK a couple of times and like him as an individual – I don’t see him as an apologist for the terrorists destroying Pakistan from BUT it seems that he will not be able to convert his online youthful support to support from the villages up and down Pakistan controlled by the PML/PPP biraderi system.
The people of Pakistan are still not educated enough to understand the true meaning of democracy. The reason Pakistan has not accelerated it self in democracy is because we see 3 familiar faces all the time (Nawaz Sharif In the face of PML-N, Bhutti family in the face of PPP and the third is ofcourse Army). lAll the three parties have the same policies since their establishment. True democracy is that every time party go to contest elections they bring new representative so that the same person can bring new ideas. We need IK to win the election because ppl can see new policies, which might not work but atleast they will be different. Secondly democracy is not a family monogram. The Bhutto & Nawaz family has made democracy their family business,,,
Remind you, IK was one of the first few to condemn Malala incident and even offered to pay for all the treatment.
IK is a hero and I’ve been his fan all my life. I totally agree with the writer. When it comes to tackling millitancy, IK does not show any substance. His response is one of an apologist or he would conveniently put the blame on war on terror. IK believes its not our war, WRONG. Both Salman Taseer and his killer werent Americans. Its the ideology that we have to fight. IK wont talk to Zardari or Sharif since they are supposedly BAD people. Mind you they both get votes from people of Pakistan. YET he insists we should talk to Taliban who IK thinks are upset because Govt sided with sanity. So, IK shows soft corner for the butchers who blow up our schools and kill our young girls but wont talk to the leaders who are voted to power by the people of the same country Khan praises so much. I wait for the day Khan asks supreme court to hang Qadri, since he takes all his fights to SC. He’ll have my vote, no questions asked.
America is talking to Taliban, they even have their representation established in Qatar. We are just the pawns in a big game played by big players, unless we start playing at their level we are just gonna be tossed around rather insignificantly.
Writing so much on IK means he got something special which attracts writers; doesn’t matter against or in favor. Why people don’t bother to write on Shareefs or Zardari …maybe they are not worth or did nothing worthy! There is no need to mind criticism but it should be fair so that something good can be learned out of it!
Pakistan is passing through worst times. The people here now well understand that its a do or die situation. If they decided to carry on with the same old faces of PPP and PML then God help them. The choice is now to save Pakistan or its too late then. God save Pakistan.
I disagree. Pakistan is passing through tough times but it is not any tougher than past or foreseeable present. If people like to elect Imran Khan, look at his message. The sense of urgency is wrong. There is as much wrong with PPP and PML-N as with the entire nation. However, PTI that appears cleaner than the national average will soon descend to the same level as PPP and PML-N. What Imran Khan is claiming are his own ideas. The world does not run on that. So, let there be no confusion about any miracle potential. It is the same nation. How can Imran Khan correct a whole nation of 190 million by becoming its PM? Sham.
If Imran looses the general election.. It would be his victory as a personality considering the mind-set which prevailes and the people of Pakistan may loose the last chance to see the change.
And If Imran wins then it would be a great victory of both Imran and the people of Pakistan.
So Imran as a personality, will under all circumstances, be the winner as he has always been in his life… choice is ours… do we want to win or loose….????????????????????????
If Imran Khan gets a turn at bat it will be in five more years. It seems rather obvious.
Naturally people wonder if they can wait that long, or if democracy in Pakistan will last that long.
You have an Imperial Pakistan. Democracy and Military Dictators have come and gone.
Imperial Pakistan is trying unsuccessfully to rule it’s rebellious provinces.
Michael I am not sure you can compare Ralph Nader to IK. IK lacks the intellectual honesty a trade mark of Ralph Nader. Besides this I am not sure IK can talk on social and political issues as convincingly as Ralph Nader,
Rahid, I can assure you the 25 people who gave your comment a thumb down would not know anything about Ralph Nader. They just gave thumbs down because IK supporters cannot stand any criticism.
I dont know ralph can walk the talk or not. Never heard of him before this article. Imran sure can try to walk the talk. Skmch is one of the few examples.
Ralph Nader was a liberal and a flash in the pan environmentalist in Pennsylvania state government.
Imran Khan is not that liberal.
and neither a flash in the pan.
I was one of those die hard supporter of IK, living in Germany and even got my friends together to work on a plan whereby we encourage/ transport Pakistanis here to the embassy, in case their vote is eligible by the time elections are held. But not any more, forget this country where 50% of the population sees shias as non-Muslims. A society so ignorant deserves no support.
The dis-appointment from the behavior of society let you change your mind so quickly. Wow!
You should first analysis yourself why were you supporting PTI and IK?
The grudge you have against the Pakistani society is meanwhile targeting WRONG entities . You should avoid it.
Change doesnt come in one day my friend …. patience and focus both are key to success. Your intention was correct alas u couldnt sustain it because deep in your heart you dont feel anything for Pakistan. Enjoy your life in Germany. God Bless u
Sam, losing hope like this does not qualify to be a supporter of IK. Please stick to your original plans and leave the results to someone else. Please don’t take it negatively!
I don’t think 50% of Pakistanis see Shias as non-muslims. It is anyway a personal choice and has nothing to do with the running of a state. All Pakistanis should be equal before the law and treated as such.
Sorry Guys I mistakenly checked the rate down thumb in the above comment I meant to like it… Truly said
And IK is a big supporter of those who consider shia non-muslim. I myself was a big supporter of Imran Khan. We used to call him Anna Hazare of Pakistan But he disappointed us by his support for taliban. IK is an addition to already large bunch of power hungry politicians and establishment.
Dr. Khan,
You are off target, as usual. Show me one statement of his where he has supported talibans. On the other hand, he has always condemned killing of Shia Muslims and minorities in strongest terms. I can refer many statements to this effect. The problem is I will never be able to bring you to the truth.
Well I don’t think thats true about IK. He doesn’t at all support those who consider shia as non muslim. Don’t be too judgmental that quickly. Take your time to assess him. I am sure he’s a better option, much better than Zardari or Nawaz Sharif
Well, its your personal decision my friend and you have all the right to have an opinion, but I guess considering whats been up in the country these days we all would have to think with in a broader perspective…
Dear Dr. Sahib….all I want to tell you is for God’s sake get rid of your deep rooted prejudices!!!! Sunnis or Shias..they are all Muslims and Pakistanis…it is only a handful of the extremist scholars of both sects that play with the emotions of their followers..and unfortunately they succeed! Alas..only if learned people like you, am assuming you are a medical doctor or have a doctoral degree, could forget about petty prejudices..and think about the greater good for the entire nation. There are always black sheep in every religion and community…so for the acts of a few you can not pass judgment for an overwhelming majority. It is like the west blaming Islam and Muslims for the ungodly terrorist acts of a handful in many parts of the world.
You can support Imran Khan living in another country? How can that be?
The diaspora supports Imran Khan by giving him money. He collected a million dollars, if not more, during his PTI fund raising tour of Canada & USA last month.
Imran Khan showed his “maturity” in politics when he demanded the death of an Indian national held in custody in your country in retaliation for Keshab’s hanging in India.These are called knee jerk politicians .One that engage their mouth before the brain works things out.
It’s been refuted Raika.
^ an Indian troll right there. Your last sentence fits you more than any one else on the planet.
Sixer.
If don’t know what is called knee jerk reaction, then that is what just put up here.
For your information Zafar sahib,I only comment on what i read in the press.Story of Imran’s comment was there and I commented on it.Rightly or wrongly depends I assume from the press reports.I suggest you click on to the times of India today and read the column.Imran’s party refutes the hanging of Sarabjit in retaliation.Pleace read it. Might put your arrogant comment against me in perspective.MY parents brought me up with the understanding that if you do not like some one or do not agree to their views,do not retaliate by saying some thing crude .By the way I am NOT an Indian.
I know you are Sikh and don’t consider yourself an Indian. Never forget your roots. An Indian is an Indian even after 7 generation. Don’t think by living in west you are no longer Indian.
btw which Indian-Masalah Newspaper you often read?
Most of our politicians play on the people’s mind with emotional speeches. Because the masses of Pakistan are illiterate including myself and get carried away emotionally. The best eras of Pakistan was during the leadership of (or most call it dictatorship) Gen. Ayub Khan and Gen. Musharraf. They made rational decisions for the interest of Pakistan. Pakistan Zindabad!! We need rational thinkers to lead Pakistan rather than emotional clowns!!!!
Trolling r45?
Dear Raika…the biggest problem these days is we start making criticisms WITHOUT first finding out the truth! Did Imran Khan tell you what you have said? It is this kind of irresponsible comments that, rather than bringing us together, try to deepen the differences. We all must simply work to get our two nations together and bring the people together, rather than divide them..and create more hatred…
Good article. I say `it is disintegration before integration`, about the whole PTI situation.
You wish but that won’t happen. We will keep working and get there!
No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
well who have seen the future, i believe he will come if not this time for sure next time, as these two parties can never perform, this was PPP last chance and coming one will be PMLn last chance.
hoping they never come up in the next term.
Day dreaming. Living in fool,s paradise.
You said it. Just analyse his actions over the period and show the difference between him and other politicians.
Phew…for a moment…I thought this article had some substance! Does this make me a ‘troll’ even though I am not from Paksitan.
Time for Pakistani’s to take their own destiny in their own hands and silence such lame critics come column inch hunters. Give Imran Khan a try – it cant get any worse!
Absolutely true.
How much have you been paid by Zardari and Sharif?
i my self am a PTI supporter … but i do not accept your pre judgement towards the columnist … He is a researcher and has his views based on it … we should be humble to listen to views even if they are in contradiction to Ours as Nation and if probable put an argument with politeness… Let us be educated enough to have simple manners of listening and communicating … and if some one is not convinced … then let the time do justice to situation with friendliness still part of debate and we should accept it on either side …. best of luck Pakistan!
Show the reseach? When was he in Pakistan last? If ever?
Please see my reply above to Ahmed Saeed
Thanks.
Raju
Why people bother about IK, PTI and its claims when they are not worth bothering?
So please let us know who would you think ‘worth bothering’ ?
Imran Khan has done his job. I wish you write again after elections are over. I bet you will cut a sorry figure. Come to Pakistan during elections and see what happens then. Don’t rely on Pakistani riksha media, its already sold out.
Your urban / rural analysis is single biggest challenge for PTI to crack. Right strategy and direction could swing the voters as the people in rural parts are not well attuned to media these days. Also the GT road surrounding population should be considered urban considering their mindset.
Pakistans political system is very different to that of US. Ralph Nader really??
I think Khan has built a machine that will be capable of getting into power somewhere in the future. Not for now maybe. Oh and FYI Nader never peaked in any poll and survey. Plus Pakistan has a history of unimaginable election outcomes whereas US only has two parties switching power back and forth.
Ralph Nader’s situation is very different from IK. He will never near the popularity of IK and PTI is slowly becoming a well oiled machine with resources to rival its competitors, something Nader never had. Also IK does not have any legitimate rivals, just a bunch of corrupt and feudal despots.
I can recall when any Chinese person wanted to move to another city he or she had to have a police permit. I understand from DAWN that there are farm laborers who basically are locked in on farms by their landlords and cannot go to a city.
Part of America’s success is that there is freedom to relocate anywhere in the country.
Mao Ze-dong and Henry Ford were farm boys who left the farm. They did relatively well in Life.
Yes, two parties only! Close second to having a Dictatorship.
This PTI Troll couldn’t agree more with your views.
nice try… but PPP is no Democratic Party and PMLN is no GOP, so your analogy of IK with Ralph Nader is fundamentally flawed… you would need to dig deeper to understand the IK phenomena and put it in the right context… and plz do an analysis of the crowd that attended IK and Mushy’s speeches/lectures… also it would be prudent to investigate media onslaught on IK/PTI. Better luck next time.
A V Good Reply, ewll done Kij.
All your readings are statistical and pragramtic, I appreciate them. But, there is a phenomenon termed as spiritual materialism and Mr. Khan is a fantastic example of that. Have patience, the glory is still to come….Things have to go through the floor before a drastic change!.
Great analysis. This indeed is also true for many Indian leaders. This supports the hypothesis that ultimately people get what leaders they deserve. No one can lead them who is better than them. Also this highlights the faliure of democracy ( Both in USA, Pakistan and may be in India in coming elections). Democracy needs a serious breath of fresh air and reforms, else it can loose to other systems. Lets up not let democracy get degenerated in to mobocracy.
No one can lead them who is better than them
Enjoyed the sentence.
well said and i agree to your assesment … But there is one situation which is kind of extra ordinary in Pakistan …. its his security and secular path which is putting all fundamental rules for existence of a country in jeopardy. This kind of extreme sensitive situation calls for extra ordinary steps which can be : to get beyond your self and take a step which gets more clearer with situation. I think so
OK. I like your idea but could you suggest such Reforms. Not all but may be few important ones at least.